**Trader consensus on the 1250+ outcome for 2026 U.S. tornadoes, carrying 91% implied probability, stems primarily from elevated preliminary counts through early September.** NOAA Storm Prediction Center data show 1,419 confirmed or preliminary tornadoes year-to-date, already surpassing long-term annual averages of roughly 1,200–1,300, fueled by record Midwest activity including over 200 reports in Illinois alone and multiple significant spring and early-summer outbreaks. Seasonal patterns favor additional events through December, though model consensus on an emerging El Niño introduces some uncertainty that could moderate late-year totals. Resolution hinges on final National Weather Service verification, with the current pace making sub-1,250 totals unlikely absent an unprecedented suppression of severe weather.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoQuanti tornado ci saranno negli Stati Uniti nel 2026?
Quanti tornado ci saranno negli Stati Uniti nel 2026?
1250+ 91%
1150–1199 3.9%
1200–1249 3.6%
1100–1149 3.4%
$83,036 Vol.
$83,036 Vol.
9 gen 2027
<950
<1%
950–999
<1%
1000–1049
<1%
1050–1099
<1%
1100–1149
3%
1150–1199
4%
1200–1249
4%
1250+
91%
1250+ 91%
1150–1199 3.9%
1200–1249 3.6%
1100–1149 3.4%
$83,036 Vol.
$83,036 Vol.
9 gen 2027
<950
$23,841 Vol.
<1%
950–999
$3,731 Vol.
<1%
1000–1049
$3,451 Vol.
<1%
1050–1099
$9,287 Vol.
<1%
1100–1149
$3,368 Vol.
3%
1150–1199
$4,192 Vol.
4%
1200–1249
$16,027 Vol.
4%
1250+
$19,139 Vol.
91%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.**Trader consensus on the 1250+ outcome for 2026 U.S. tornadoes, carrying 91% implied probability, stems primarily from elevated preliminary counts through early September.** NOAA Storm Prediction Center data show 1,419 confirmed or preliminary tornadoes year-to-date, already surpassing long-term annual averages of roughly 1,200–1,300, fueled by record Midwest activity including over 200 reports in Illinois alone and multiple significant spring and early-summer outbreaks.
Seasonal patterns favor additional events through December, though model consensus on an emerging El Niño introduces some uncertainty that could moderate late-year totals. Resolution hinges on final National Weather Service verification, with the current pace making sub-1,250 totals unlikely absent an unprecedented suppression of severe weather.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Mercato aperto: Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ET
Volume
$83,036Data di fine
10 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.**Trader consensus on the 1250+ outcome for 2026 U.S. tornadoes, carrying 91% implied probability, stems primarily from elevated preliminary counts through early September.** NOAA Storm Prediction Center data show 1,419 confirmed or preliminary tornadoes year-to-date, already surpassing long-term annual averages of roughly 1,200–1,300, fueled by record Midwest activity including over 200 reports in Illinois alone and multiple significant spring and early-summer outbreaks.
Seasonal patterns favor additional events through December, though model consensus on an emerging El Niño introduces some uncertainty that could moderate late-year totals. Resolution hinges on final National Weather Service verification, with the current pace making sub-1,250 totals unlikely absent an unprecedented suppression of severe weather.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Volume
$83,036Data di fine
10 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus on the 1250+ outcome for 2026 U.S. tornadoes, carrying 91% implied probability, stems primarily from elevated preliminary counts through early September.** NOAA Storm Prediction Center data show 1,419 confirmed or preliminary tornadoes year-to-date, already surpassing long-term annual averages of roughly 1,200–1,300, fueled by record Midwest activity including over 200 reports in Illinois alone and multiple significant spring and early-summer outbreaks. Seasonal patterns favor additional events through December, though model consensus on an emerging El Niño introduces some uncertainty that could moderate late-year totals. Resolution hinges on final National Weather Service verification, with the current pace making sub-1,250 totals unlikely absent an unprecedented suppression of severe weather.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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