**Trader consensus on “No” at 78% for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026 rests on the continued absence of any Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, magnitude 8.5+ earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor strike through August.** NOAA’s National Hurricane Center reports suppressed Atlantic activity tied to persistent wind shear and neutral-to-cool ENSO conditions, reducing the chance of rapid intensification needed for Category 5 systems before year-end. USGS records show the strongest 2026 events reached only 7.8 Mw in the Philippines and Venezuela doublets earlier in the year, well below the resolution threshold. No major volcanic or extraterrestrial events have been recorded by monitoring agencies. With roughly four months remaining and current model guidance favoring continued suppression of extreme thresholds, traders assign high probability to the market resolving “No” absent a sudden shift in seismic, atmospheric, or space-weather conditions.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoDisastro naturale nel 2026?
Disastro naturale nel 2026?
Sì
22% probabilità
$243,297 Vol.
$243,297 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
22% probabilità
$243,297 Vol.
$243,297 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
**Trader consensus on “No” at 78% for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026 rests on the continued absence of any Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, magnitude 8.5+ earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor strike through August.** NOAA’s National Hurricane Center reports suppressed Atlantic activity tied to persistent wind shear and neutral-to-cool ENSO conditions, reducing the chance of rapid intensification needed for Category 5 systems before year-end. USGS records show the strongest 2026 events reached only 7.8 Mw in the Philippines and Venezuela doublets earlier in the year, well below the resolution threshold. No major volcanic or extraterrestrial events have been recorded by monitoring agencies. With roughly four months remaining and current model guidance favoring continued suppression of extreme thresholds, traders assign high probability to the market resolving “No” absent a sudden shift in seismic, atmospheric, or space-weather conditions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Mercato aperto: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Volume
$243,297Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
**Trader consensus on “No” at 78% for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026 rests on the continued absence of any Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, magnitude 8.5+ earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor strike through August.** NOAA’s National Hurricane Center reports suppressed Atlantic activity tied to persistent wind shear and neutral-to-cool ENSO conditions, reducing the chance of rapid intensification needed for Category 5 systems before year-end. USGS records show the strongest 2026 events reached only 7.8 Mw in the Philippines and Venezuela doublets earlier in the year, well below the resolution threshold. No major volcanic or extraterrestrial events have been recorded by monitoring agencies. With roughly four months remaining and current model guidance favoring continued suppression of extreme thresholds, traders assign high probability to the market resolving “No” absent a sudden shift in seismic, atmospheric, or space-weather conditions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Volume
$243,297Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...**Trader consensus on “No” at 78% for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026 rests on the continued absence of any Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, magnitude 8.5+ earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor strike through August.** NOAA’s National Hurricane Center reports suppressed Atlantic activity tied to persistent wind shear and neutral-to-cool ENSO conditions, reducing the chance of rapid intensification needed for Category 5 systems before year-end. USGS records show the strongest 2026 events reached only 7.8 Mw in the Philippines and Venezuela doublets earlier in the year, well below the resolution threshold. No major volcanic or extraterrestrial events have been recorded by monitoring agencies. With roughly four months remaining and current model guidance favoring continued suppression of extreme thresholds, traders assign high probability to the market resolving “No” absent a sudden shift in seismic, atmospheric, or space-weather conditions.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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