Trader consensus favors "No" at 72% implied probability for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026, driven by the absence of any triggering events through mid-April—no Category 5 hurricane landfall in the US per National Hurricane Center records, no magnitude 8.5+ earthquake per USGS data, no Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥6 eruption per Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program monitoring, and no 10-kiloton+ meteor airburst per NASA Center for Near-Earth Object Studies. This event-free start to the year aligns with subdued Atlantic hurricane season forecasts from NOAA and Colorado State University, anticipating below-normal activity amid weak La Niña conditions, contrasting the rarity of US Cat 5 landfalls (last in 2018). Ongoing seismic and volcanic surveillance continues, with NOAA's preseason outlook due late May potentially influencing odds ahead of June-November peak storm risks.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoDisastro naturale nel 2026?
Disastro naturale nel 2026?
Sì
$203,803 Vol.
$203,803 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
$203,803 Vol.
$203,803 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus favors "No" at 72% implied probability for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026, driven by the absence of any triggering events through mid-April—no Category 5 hurricane landfall in the US per National Hurricane Center records, no magnitude 8.5+ earthquake per USGS data, no Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥6 eruption per Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program monitoring, and no 10-kiloton+ meteor airburst per NASA Center for Near-Earth Object Studies. This event-free start to the year aligns with subdued Atlantic hurricane season forecasts from NOAA and Colorado State University, anticipating below-normal activity amid weak La Niña conditions, contrasting the rarity of US Cat 5 landfalls (last in 2018). Ongoing seismic and volcanic surveillance continues, with NOAA's preseason outlook due late May potentially influencing odds ahead of June-November peak storm risks.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Mercato aperto: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Volume
$203,803Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus favors "No" at 72% implied probability for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026, driven by the absence of any triggering events through mid-April—no Category 5 hurricane landfall in the US per National Hurricane Center records, no magnitude 8.5+ earthquake per USGS data, no Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥6 eruption per Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program monitoring, and no 10-kiloton+ meteor airburst per NASA Center for Near-Earth Object Studies. This event-free start to the year aligns with subdued Atlantic hurricane season forecasts from NOAA and Colorado State University, anticipating below-normal activity amid weak La Niña conditions, contrasting the rarity of US Cat 5 landfalls (last in 2018). Ongoing seismic and volcanic surveillance continues, with NOAA's preseason outlook due late May potentially influencing odds ahead of June-November peak storm risks.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Volume
$203,803Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favors "No" at 72% implied probability for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026, driven by the absence of any triggering events through mid-April—no Category 5 hurricane landfall in the US per National Hurricane Center records, no magnitude 8.5+ earthquake per USGS data, no Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥6 eruption per Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program monitoring, and no 10-kiloton+ meteor airburst per NASA Center for Near-Earth Object Studies. This event-free start to the year aligns with subdued Atlantic hurricane season forecasts from NOAA and Colorado State University, anticipating below-normal activity amid weak La Niña conditions, contrasting the rarity of US Cat 5 landfalls (last in 2018). Ongoing seismic and volcanic surveillance continues, with NOAA's preseason outlook due late May potentially influencing odds ahead of June-November peak storm risks.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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