Trader consensus assigns an 80% implied probability to “No” for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026 because the market resolves only on rare extremes: a U.S. Category 5 hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 eruption, M8.5+ quake, or ≥10 kt meteor strike. Through mid-June 2026, none have materialized amid routine M7+ seismicity, typical early Atlantic activity, and ENSO-neutral sea-surface temperatures that limit rapid intensification per NOAA guidance. Historical frequencies—roughly one qualifying U.S. Cat 5 every several years and VEI 6+ events once per decade or longer—support the current odds, with USGS and Smithsonian monitoring showing no elevated alerts. Six months remain, but absent major model shifts or new seismic/volcanic signals, the skin-in-the-game consensus favors continuity.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoDisastro naturale nel 2026?
Disastro naturale nel 2026?
Sì
$226,158 Vol.
$226,158 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
$226,158 Vol.
$226,158 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus assigns an 80% implied probability to “No” for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026 because the market resolves only on rare extremes: a U.S. Category 5 hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 eruption, M8.5+ quake, or ≥10 kt meteor strike. Through mid-June 2026, none have materialized amid routine M7+ seismicity, typical early Atlantic activity, and ENSO-neutral sea-surface temperatures that limit rapid intensification per NOAA guidance. Historical frequencies—roughly one qualifying U.S. Cat 5 every several years and VEI 6+ events once per decade or longer—support the current odds, with USGS and Smithsonian monitoring showing no elevated alerts. Six months remain, but absent major model shifts or new seismic/volcanic signals, the skin-in-the-game consensus favors continuity.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Mercato aperto: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Volume
$226,158Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus assigns an 80% implied probability to “No” for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026 because the market resolves only on rare extremes: a U.S. Category 5 hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 eruption, M8.5+ quake, or ≥10 kt meteor strike. Through mid-June 2026, none have materialized amid routine M7+ seismicity, typical early Atlantic activity, and ENSO-neutral sea-surface temperatures that limit rapid intensification per NOAA guidance. Historical frequencies—roughly one qualifying U.S. Cat 5 every several years and VEI 6+ events once per decade or longer—support the current odds, with USGS and Smithsonian monitoring showing no elevated alerts. Six months remain, but absent major model shifts or new seismic/volcanic signals, the skin-in-the-game consensus favors continuity.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Volume
$226,158Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus assigns an 80% implied probability to “No” for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026 because the market resolves only on rare extremes: a U.S. Category 5 hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 eruption, M8.5+ quake, or ≥10 kt meteor strike. Through mid-June 2026, none have materialized amid routine M7+ seismicity, typical early Atlantic activity, and ENSO-neutral sea-surface temperatures that limit rapid intensification per NOAA guidance. Historical frequencies—roughly one qualifying U.S. Cat 5 every several years and VEI 6+ events once per decade or longer—support the current odds, with USGS and Smithsonian monitoring showing no elevated alerts. Six months remain, but absent major model shifts or new seismic/volcanic signals, the skin-in-the-game consensus favors continuity.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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