Trader consensus on Polymarket favors zero large volcanic eruptions (VEI ≥4) at 52.5%, reflecting the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program's confirmation of none through late March 2026 amid 47 total eruptions, all below VEI 3. Historical data shows an average of about 0.6 VEI ≥4 events annually, with low variability, supporting elevated odds for zero or one (35.5%) given roughly one-third of the year elapsed without precursors like intense seismicity or deformation at monitored sites. Ongoing low-level activity at Kīlauea, Semeru, and Fuego persists per USGS alerts, but lacks escalation signals for explosive VEI ≥4 phases; weekly GVP reports will track any shifts in seismic or gas data critical to year-end tallies.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoQuante grandi eruzioni vulcaniche (vei ≥4) nel 2026?
Quante grandi eruzioni vulcaniche (vei ≥4) nel 2026?
0 53%
1 36%
2 5.8%
3 1.8%
$988,145 Vol.
$988,145 Vol.
31 dic 2026
0
53%
1
36%
2
6%
3
2%
4
<1%
5+
1%
0 53%
1 36%
2 5.8%
3 1.8%
$988,145 Vol.
$988,145 Vol.
31 dic 2026
0
$446,751 Vol.
53%
1
$249,985 Vol.
36%
2
$21,796 Vol.
6%
3
$10,394 Vol.
2%
4
$15,476 Vol.
<1%
5+
$243,743 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors zero large volcanic eruptions (VEI ≥4) at 52.5%, reflecting the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program's confirmation of none through late March 2026 amid 47 total eruptions, all below VEI 3. Historical data shows an average of about 0.6 VEI ≥4 events annually, with low variability, supporting elevated odds for zero or one (35.5%) given roughly one-third of the year elapsed without precursors like intense seismicity or deformation at monitored sites. Ongoing low-level activity at Kīlauea, Semeru, and Fuego persists per USGS alerts, but lacks escalation signals for explosive VEI ≥4 phases; weekly GVP reports will track any shifts in seismic or gas data critical to year-end tallies.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
Volume
$988,145Data di fine
31 mar 2027Mercato aperto
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors zero large volcanic eruptions (VEI ≥4) at 52.5%, reflecting the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program's confirmation of none through late March 2026 amid 47 total eruptions, all below VEI 3. Historical data shows an average of about 0.6 VEI ≥4 events annually, with low variability, supporting elevated odds for zero or one (35.5%) given roughly one-third of the year elapsed without precursors like intense seismicity or deformation at monitored sites. Ongoing low-level activity at Kīlauea, Semeru, and Fuego persists per USGS alerts, but lacks escalation signals for explosive VEI ≥4 phases; weekly GVP reports will track any shifts in seismic or gas data critical to year-end tallies.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Volume
$988,145Data di fine
31 mar 2027Mercato aperto
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket favors zero large volcanic eruptions (VEI ≥4) at 52.5%, reflecting the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program's confirmation of none through late March 2026 amid 47 total eruptions, all below VEI 3. Historical data shows an average of about 0.6 VEI ≥4 events annually, with low variability, supporting elevated odds for zero or one (35.5%) given roughly one-third of the year elapsed without precursors like intense seismicity or deformation at monitored sites. Ongoing low-level activity at Kīlauea, Semeru, and Fuego persists per USGS alerts, but lacks escalation signals for explosive VEI ≥4 phases; weekly GVP reports will track any shifts in seismic or gas data critical to year-end tallies.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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