**No confirmed VEI ≥4 eruptions have occurred through early September 2026, keeping the market tightly balanced between zero (44.5%) and one (51.5%).** Recent explosive activity at Anak Krakatau produced ash plumes reaching ~15 km altitude, meeting the minimum plume-height threshold for VEI 4 on the Volcanic Explosivity Index, yet official classification by the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program awaits tephra-volume confirmation of at least 0.1 km³ dense-rock equivalent. Ongoing lower-VEI activity at Kīlauea and other sites has not crossed this threshold, consistent with the long-term average of roughly 0.5–1 such events per year. With four months remaining and no major stratospheric injections or caldera unrest reported by USGS or GVP monitoring, traders weigh the statistical likelihood of at least one qualifying eruption against the current quiet baseline before year-end resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoQuante grandi eruzioni vulcaniche (vei ≥4) nel 2026?
Quante grandi eruzioni vulcaniche (vei ≥4) nel 2026?
1 48%
0 43%
3 6.9%
2 2.1%
$1,164,240 Vol.
$1,164,240 Vol.
31 dic 2026
0
49%
1
48%
2
2%
3
7%
4
1%
5+
1%
1 48%
0 43%
3 6.9%
2 2.1%
$1,164,240 Vol.
$1,164,240 Vol.
31 dic 2026
0
$499,859 Vol.
49%
1
$274,794 Vol.
48%
2
$45,973 Vol.
2%
3
$32,103 Vol.
7%
4
$35,623 Vol.
1%
5+
$275,888 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.**No confirmed VEI ≥4 eruptions have occurred through early September 2026, keeping the market tightly balanced between zero (44.5%) and one (51.5%).**
Recent explosive activity at Anak Krakatau produced ash plumes reaching ~15 km altitude, meeting the minimum plume-height threshold for VEI 4 on the Volcanic Explosivity Index, yet official classification by the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program awaits tephra-volume confirmation of at least 0.1 km³ dense-rock equivalent. Ongoing lower-VEI activity at Kīlauea and other sites has not crossed this threshold, consistent with the long-term average of roughly 0.5–1 such events per year. With four months remaining and no major stratospheric injections or caldera unrest reported by USGS or GVP monitoring, traders weigh the statistical likelihood of at least one qualifying eruption against the current quiet baseline before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
Volume
$1,164,240Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.**No confirmed VEI ≥4 eruptions have occurred through early September 2026, keeping the market tightly balanced between zero (44.5%) and one (51.5%).**
Recent explosive activity at Anak Krakatau produced ash plumes reaching ~15 km altitude, meeting the minimum plume-height threshold for VEI 4 on the Volcanic Explosivity Index, yet official classification by the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program awaits tephra-volume confirmation of at least 0.1 km³ dense-rock equivalent. Ongoing lower-VEI activity at Kīlauea and other sites has not crossed this threshold, consistent with the long-term average of roughly 0.5–1 such events per year. With four months remaining and no major stratospheric injections or caldera unrest reported by USGS or GVP monitoring, traders weigh the statistical likelihood of at least one qualifying eruption against the current quiet baseline before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Volume
$1,164,240Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...**No confirmed VEI ≥4 eruptions have occurred through early September 2026, keeping the market tightly balanced between zero (44.5%) and one (51.5%).** Recent explosive activity at Anak Krakatau produced ash plumes reaching ~15 km altitude, meeting the minimum plume-height threshold for VEI 4 on the Volcanic Explosivity Index, yet official classification by the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program awaits tephra-volume confirmation of at least 0.1 km³ dense-rock equivalent. Ongoing lower-VEI activity at Kīlauea and other sites has not crossed this threshold, consistent with the long-term average of roughly 0.5–1 such events per year. With four months remaining and no major stratospheric injections or caldera unrest reported by USGS or GVP monitoring, traders weigh the statistical likelihood of at least one qualifying eruption against the current quiet baseline before year-end resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti