NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies Sentry monitoring system reports no known near-Earth objects on collision courses for 2026, with no significant impact threats identified through the next century. Ongoing surveys continue cataloging asteroids without flagging any 10-kiloton-scale candidates, while recent close approaches involved only small, harmless objects. This comprehensive orbital tracking, combined with the inherently low statistical frequency of major strikes, underpins the strong 89% market-implied probability for “No.” Upcoming catalysts include continued data from new surveys like the Rubin Observatory, though they are unlikely to alter the current outlook absent an unforeseen discovery.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSciopero meteorico maggiore (10 kt +) nel 2026?
Sciopero meteorico maggiore (10 kt +) nel 2026?
Sì
11% probabilità
$179,084 Vol.
$179,084 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
11% probabilità
$179,084 Vol.
$179,084 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies Sentry monitoring system reports no known near-Earth objects on collision courses for 2026, with no significant impact threats identified through the next century. Ongoing surveys continue cataloging asteroids without flagging any 10-kiloton-scale candidates, while recent close approaches involved only small, harmless objects. This comprehensive orbital tracking, combined with the inherently low statistical frequency of major strikes, underpins the strong 89% market-implied probability for “No.” Upcoming catalysts include continued data from new surveys like the Rubin Observatory, though they are unlikely to alter the current outlook absent an unforeseen discovery.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Mercato aperto: Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ET
Volume
$179,084Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies Sentry monitoring system reports no known near-Earth objects on collision courses for 2026, with no significant impact threats identified through the next century. Ongoing surveys continue cataloging asteroids without flagging any 10-kiloton-scale candidates, while recent close approaches involved only small, harmless objects. This comprehensive orbital tracking, combined with the inherently low statistical frequency of major strikes, underpins the strong 89% market-implied probability for “No.” Upcoming catalysts include continued data from new surveys like the Rubin Observatory, though they are unlikely to alter the current outlook absent an unforeseen discovery.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$179,084Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies Sentry monitoring system reports no known near-Earth objects on collision courses for 2026, with no significant impact threats identified through the next century. Ongoing surveys continue cataloging asteroids without flagging any 10-kiloton-scale candidates, while recent close approaches involved only small, harmless objects. This comprehensive orbital tracking, combined with the inherently low statistical frequency of major strikes, underpins the strong 89% market-implied probability for “No.” Upcoming catalysts include continued data from new surveys like the Rubin Observatory, though they are unlikely to alter the current outlook absent an unforeseen discovery.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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