NASA's planetary defense systems, including the Sentry impact-monitoring software and CNEOS catalog of nearly 40,000 near-Earth objects, continue to show no credible 10kt+ impact risk through 2026 and beyond, underpinning the 89.5% "No" odds. Recent safe close approaches by objects like 2026 JH2 and 2026 HJ, combined with expanded infrared detection capabilities ahead of the planned NEO Surveyor launch, have reinforced trader confidence in early warning and low annual probability. While 2026 saw a statistically notable uptick in smaller fireballs, these events remain well below major strike thresholds and have not altered the consensus.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSciopero meteorico maggiore (10 kt +) nel 2026?
Sciopero meteorico maggiore (10 kt +) nel 2026?
Sì
11% probabilità
$179,084 Vol.
$179,084 Vol.
30 dic 2026
Sì
11% probabilità
$179,084 Vol.
$179,084 Vol.
30 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's planetary defense systems, including the Sentry impact-monitoring software and CNEOS catalog of nearly 40,000 near-Earth objects, continue to show no credible 10kt+ impact risk through 2026 and beyond, underpinning the 89.5% "No" odds. Recent safe close approaches by objects like 2026 JH2 and 2026 HJ, combined with expanded infrared detection capabilities ahead of the planned NEO Surveyor launch, have reinforced trader confidence in early warning and low annual probability. While 2026 saw a statistically notable uptick in smaller fireballs, these events remain well below major strike thresholds and have not altered the consensus.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Mercato aperto: Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ET
Volume
$179,084Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's planetary defense systems, including the Sentry impact-monitoring software and CNEOS catalog of nearly 40,000 near-Earth objects, continue to show no credible 10kt+ impact risk through 2026 and beyond, underpinning the 89.5% "No" odds. Recent safe close approaches by objects like 2026 JH2 and 2026 HJ, combined with expanded infrared detection capabilities ahead of the planned NEO Surveyor launch, have reinforced trader confidence in early warning and low annual probability. While 2026 saw a statistically notable uptick in smaller fireballs, these events remain well below major strike thresholds and have not altered the consensus.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$179,084Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NASA's planetary defense systems, including the Sentry impact-monitoring software and CNEOS catalog of nearly 40,000 near-Earth objects, continue to show no credible 10kt+ impact risk through 2026 and beyond, underpinning the 89.5% "No" odds. Recent safe close approaches by objects like 2026 JH2 and 2026 HJ, combined with expanded infrared detection capabilities ahead of the planned NEO Surveyor launch, have reinforced trader confidence in early warning and low annual probability. While 2026 saw a statistically notable uptick in smaller fireballs, these events remain well below major strike thresholds and have not altered the consensus.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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