Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 76% implied probability for no major meteor strike exceeding 10 kilotons in 2026, reflecting the rarity of such airbursts—historically occurring roughly every few years based on NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) fireball data—and the absence of any qualifying event through mid-April despite a Q1 surge in smaller fireballs, like the 0.37-kiloton Ohio airburst on March 17 and 0.026-kiloton Houston event on March 21. Enhanced planetary defense sensors have cataloged dozens of sub-kiloton events without undetected threats, while no tracked near-Earth objects pose impact risks this year. Odds could shift with late-year detections, but current sentiment favors the low baseline probability.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSciopero meteorico maggiore (10 kt +) nel 2026?
Sciopero meteorico maggiore (10 kt +) nel 2026?
Sì
$144,425 Vol.
$144,425 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
$144,425 Vol.
$144,425 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 76% implied probability for no major meteor strike exceeding 10 kilotons in 2026, reflecting the rarity of such airbursts—historically occurring roughly every few years based on NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) fireball data—and the absence of any qualifying event through mid-April despite a Q1 surge in smaller fireballs, like the 0.37-kiloton Ohio airburst on March 17 and 0.026-kiloton Houston event on March 21. Enhanced planetary defense sensors have cataloged dozens of sub-kiloton events without undetected threats, while no tracked near-Earth objects pose impact risks this year. Odds could shift with late-year detections, but current sentiment favors the low baseline probability.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Mercato aperto: Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ET
Volume
$144,425Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 76% implied probability for no major meteor strike exceeding 10 kilotons in 2026, reflecting the rarity of such airbursts—historically occurring roughly every few years based on NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) fireball data—and the absence of any qualifying event through mid-April despite a Q1 surge in smaller fireballs, like the 0.37-kiloton Ohio airburst on March 17 and 0.026-kiloton Houston event on March 21. Enhanced planetary defense sensors have cataloged dozens of sub-kiloton events without undetected threats, while no tracked near-Earth objects pose impact risks this year. Odds could shift with late-year detections, but current sentiment favors the low baseline probability.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$144,425Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 76% implied probability for no major meteor strike exceeding 10 kilotons in 2026, reflecting the rarity of such airbursts—historically occurring roughly every few years based on NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) fireball data—and the absence of any qualifying event through mid-April despite a Q1 surge in smaller fireballs, like the 0.37-kiloton Ohio airburst on March 17 and 0.026-kiloton Houston event on March 21. Enhanced planetary defense sensors have cataloged dozens of sub-kiloton events without undetected threats, while no tracked near-Earth objects pose impact risks this year. Odds could shift with late-year detections, but current sentiment favors the low baseline probability.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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