NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system reports no asteroids on its risk list with impact probabilities for 2026 that could release 1 megaton of energy—equivalent to a ~50-meter bolide airburst—fueling trader consensus at 96.2% for "No." Recent safe close approaches, like house-sized 2026 GD passing 156,000 miles away on April 9 and bus-sized 2026 EG1 in March, underscore effective monitoring amid Q1 2026's surge in smaller fireballs, while Vera C. Rubin Observatory data has cataloged over 11,000 new near-Earth objects (NEOs) with no threats. Undiscovered NEOs pose residual risk, but historical impact rates for such events are rare (one every few decades); late-year discoveries or refined orbits could shift odds before year-end resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoMeteorite da 1 megatone nel 2026?
Meteorite da 1 megatone nel 2026?
Sì
$104,378 Vol.
$104,378 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
$104,378 Vol.
$104,378 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system reports no asteroids on its risk list with impact probabilities for 2026 that could release 1 megaton of energy—equivalent to a ~50-meter bolide airburst—fueling trader consensus at 96.2% for "No." Recent safe close approaches, like house-sized 2026 GD passing 156,000 miles away on April 9 and bus-sized 2026 EG1 in March, underscore effective monitoring amid Q1 2026's surge in smaller fireballs, while Vera C. Rubin Observatory data has cataloged over 11,000 new near-Earth objects (NEOs) with no threats. Undiscovered NEOs pose residual risk, but historical impact rates for such events are rare (one every few decades); late-year discoveries or refined orbits could shift odds before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Mercato aperto: Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
Volume
$104,378Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system reports no asteroids on its risk list with impact probabilities for 2026 that could release 1 megaton of energy—equivalent to a ~50-meter bolide airburst—fueling trader consensus at 96.2% for "No." Recent safe close approaches, like house-sized 2026 GD passing 156,000 miles away on April 9 and bus-sized 2026 EG1 in March, underscore effective monitoring amid Q1 2026's surge in smaller fireballs, while Vera C. Rubin Observatory data has cataloged over 11,000 new near-Earth objects (NEOs) with no threats. Undiscovered NEOs pose residual risk, but historical impact rates for such events are rare (one every few decades); late-year discoveries or refined orbits could shift odds before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$104,378Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system reports no asteroids on its risk list with impact probabilities for 2026 that could release 1 megaton of energy—equivalent to a ~50-meter bolide airburst—fueling trader consensus at 96.2% for "No." Recent safe close approaches, like house-sized 2026 GD passing 156,000 miles away on April 9 and bus-sized 2026 EG1 in March, underscore effective monitoring amid Q1 2026's surge in smaller fireballs, while Vera C. Rubin Observatory data has cataloged over 11,000 new near-Earth objects (NEOs) with no threats. Undiscovered NEOs pose residual risk, but historical impact rates for such events are rare (one every few decades); late-year discoveries or refined orbits could shift odds before year-end resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti