**Comprehensive near-Earth object monitoring by NASA’s CNEOS, ESA’s NEOCC, and the Sentry impact system shows no known asteroids or comets on trajectories that could deliver a 1-megaton-or-greater airburst in 2026.** With more than half the year elapsed and no detections meeting the energy threshold, traders assign 98.7% probability to “No.” Surveys have catalogued the vast majority of objects large enough to produce such yields, and routine close approaches tracked through mid-August remain safely distant. The only realistic remaining pathways to a “Yes” outcome involve an as-yet-undetected small body entering Earth’s atmosphere late in the year—an event whose odds are constrained by improving survey coverage and the short remaining timeframe.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoMeteorite da 1 megatone nel 2026?
Meteorite da 1 megatone nel 2026?
Sì
1% probabilità
$116,329 Vol.
$116,329 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
1% probabilità
$116,329 Vol.
$116,329 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.**Comprehensive near-Earth object monitoring by NASA’s CNEOS, ESA’s NEOCC, and the Sentry impact system shows no known asteroids or comets on trajectories that could deliver a 1-megaton-or-greater airburst in 2026.** With more than half the year elapsed and no detections meeting the energy threshold, traders assign 98.7% probability to “No.” Surveys have catalogued the vast majority of objects large enough to produce such yields, and routine close approaches tracked through mid-August remain safely distant. The only realistic remaining pathways to a “Yes” outcome involve an as-yet-undetected small body entering Earth’s atmosphere late in the year—an event whose odds are constrained by improving survey coverage and the short remaining timeframe.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Mercato aperto: Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
Volume
$116,329Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.**Comprehensive near-Earth object monitoring by NASA’s CNEOS, ESA’s NEOCC, and the Sentry impact system shows no known asteroids or comets on trajectories that could deliver a 1-megaton-or-greater airburst in 2026.** With more than half the year elapsed and no detections meeting the energy threshold, traders assign 98.7% probability to “No.” Surveys have catalogued the vast majority of objects large enough to produce such yields, and routine close approaches tracked through mid-August remain safely distant. The only realistic remaining pathways to a “Yes” outcome involve an as-yet-undetected small body entering Earth’s atmosphere late in the year—an event whose odds are constrained by improving survey coverage and the short remaining timeframe.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$116,329Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Comprehensive near-Earth object monitoring by NASA’s CNEOS, ESA’s NEOCC, and the Sentry impact system shows no known asteroids or comets on trajectories that could deliver a 1-megaton-or-greater airburst in 2026.** With more than half the year elapsed and no detections meeting the energy threshold, traders assign 98.7% probability to “No.” Surveys have catalogued the vast majority of objects large enough to produce such yields, and routine close approaches tracked through mid-August remain safely distant. The only realistic remaining pathways to a “Yes” outcome involve an as-yet-undetected small body entering Earth’s atmosphere late in the year—an event whose odds are constrained by improving survey coverage and the short remaining timeframe.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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