Trader consensus on Polymarket favors more than nine magnitude 5.5 or greater earthquakes worldwide from April 13-19, with 39% implied probability, aligning with USGS long-term global averages of roughly 25-30 such events per week under the Gutenberg-Richter frequency-magnitude relation. This baseline drives sentiment toward higher bins despite a moderate start to the period, including a M5.5 (initially reported 5.7) near Silver Springs, Nevada on April 13—followed by smaller aftershocks—and a M5.5 near Neiafu, Tonga the same day, per USGS catalog data. No major seismic swarms or fault-specific precursors signal deviation, though inherent Poisson-like variability in tectonic strain release keeps uncertainty high. Watch USGS real-time updates through April 19 for final count, as late-period events could shift totals.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoQuanti terremoti di magnitudo 5.5 o superiore dal 13 al 19 aprile?
Quanti terremoti di magnitudo 5.5 o superiore dal 13 al 19 aprile?
>9 39%
8 16%
9 15%
7 14%
$108,605 Vol.
$108,605 Vol.
19 apr 2026
≤3
<1%
4
1%
5
6%
6
9%
7
14%
8
16%
9
15%
>9
39%
>9 39%
8 16%
9 15%
7 14%
$108,605 Vol.
$108,605 Vol.
19 apr 2026
≤3
$71,180 Vol.
<1%
4
$6,752 Vol.
1%
5
$2,815 Vol.
6%
6
$1,311 Vol.
9%
7
$1,894 Vol.
14%
8
$2,654 Vol.
16%
9
$1,639 Vol.
15%
>9
$20,378 Vol.
39%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 13, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors more than nine magnitude 5.5 or greater earthquakes worldwide from April 13-19, with 39% implied probability, aligning with USGS long-term global averages of roughly 25-30 such events per week under the Gutenberg-Richter frequency-magnitude relation. This baseline drives sentiment toward higher bins despite a moderate start to the period, including a M5.5 (initially reported 5.7) near Silver Springs, Nevada on April 13—followed by smaller aftershocks—and a M5.5 near Neiafu, Tonga the same day, per USGS catalog data. No major seismic swarms or fault-specific precursors signal deviation, though inherent Poisson-like variability in tectonic strain release keeps uncertainty high. Watch USGS real-time updates through April 19 for final count, as late-period events could shift totals.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 13, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Mercato aperto: Apr 10, 2026, 4:26 PM ET
Volume
$108,605Data di fine
19 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 10, 2026, 4:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 13, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors more than nine magnitude 5.5 or greater earthquakes worldwide from April 13-19, with 39% implied probability, aligning with USGS long-term global averages of roughly 25-30 such events per week under the Gutenberg-Richter frequency-magnitude relation. This baseline drives sentiment toward higher bins despite a moderate start to the period, including a M5.5 (initially reported 5.7) near Silver Springs, Nevada on April 13—followed by smaller aftershocks—and a M5.5 near Neiafu, Tonga the same day, per USGS catalog data. No major seismic swarms or fault-specific precursors signal deviation, though inherent Poisson-like variability in tectonic strain release keeps uncertainty high. Watch USGS real-time updates through April 19 for final count, as late-period events could shift totals.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 13, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$108,605Data di fine
19 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 10, 2026, 4:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket favors more than nine magnitude 5.5 or greater earthquakes worldwide from April 13-19, with 39% implied probability, aligning with USGS long-term global averages of roughly 25-30 such events per week under the Gutenberg-Richter frequency-magnitude relation. This baseline drives sentiment toward higher bins despite a moderate start to the period, including a M5.5 (initially reported 5.7) near Silver Springs, Nevada on April 13—followed by smaller aftershocks—and a M5.5 near Neiafu, Tonga the same day, per USGS catalog data. No major seismic swarms or fault-specific precursors signal deviation, though inherent Poisson-like variability in tectonic strain release keeps uncertainty high. Watch USGS real-time updates through April 19 for final count, as late-period events could shift totals.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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