Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a near-certain 100% implied probability to a 21°C high temperature at Tokyo's Haneda Airport station today, driven by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) observational data and short-range forecast models showing peak readings around 21°C mid-afternoon amid mostly cloudy conditions and light winds. Current atmospheric patterns—persistent cloud cover and moderate humidity—have capped warming, aligning with April climatological norms where daily highs average 19–22°C. JMA's early-morning forecast of 25°C has been revised downward by subsequent model runs reflecting observed cooling trends post-noon. Realistic challenges include rare late-day clearing leading to a brief 1–2°C spike before sunset, though probabilities remain negligible with the market nearing resolution based on official daily maximum reports.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoHighest temperature in Tokyo on April 16?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on April 16?
21°C 99.8%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
24°C or higher <1%
NUOVO
$210,085 Vol.
NUOVO
$210,085 Vol.
16 apr 2026
21°C
100%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C or higher
<1%
21°C 99.8%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
24°C or higher <1%
NUOVO
$210,085 Vol.
NUOVO
$210,085 Vol.
16 apr 2026
21°C
$68,758 Vol.
100%
22°C
$23,986 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$20,026 Vol.
<1%
24°C or higher
$29,160 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a near-certain 100% implied probability to a 21°C high temperature at Tokyo's Haneda Airport station today, driven by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) observational data and short-range forecast models showing peak readings around 21°C mid-afternoon amid mostly cloudy conditions and light winds. Current atmospheric patterns—persistent cloud cover and moderate humidity—have capped warming, aligning with April climatological norms where daily highs average 19–22°C. JMA's early-morning forecast of 25°C has been revised downward by subsequent model runs reflecting observed cooling trends post-noon. Realistic challenges include rare late-day clearing leading to a brief 1–2°C spike before sunset, though probabilities remain negligible with the market nearing resolution based on official daily maximum reports.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: Apr 14, 2026, 6:06 PM ET
Volume
$210,085Data di fine
16 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 14, 2026, 6:06 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a near-certain 100% implied probability to a 21°C high temperature at Tokyo's Haneda Airport station today, driven by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) observational data and short-range forecast models showing peak readings around 21°C mid-afternoon amid mostly cloudy conditions and light winds. Current atmospheric patterns—persistent cloud cover and moderate humidity—have capped warming, aligning with April climatological norms where daily highs average 19–22°C. JMA's early-morning forecast of 25°C has been revised downward by subsequent model runs reflecting observed cooling trends post-noon. Realistic challenges include rare late-day clearing leading to a brief 1–2°C spike before sunset, though probabilities remain negligible with the market nearing resolution based on official daily maximum reports.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$210,085Data di fine
16 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 14, 2026, 6:06 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a near-certain 100% implied probability to a 21°C high temperature at Tokyo's Haneda Airport station today, driven by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) observational data and short-range forecast models showing peak readings around 21°C mid-afternoon amid mostly cloudy conditions and light winds. Current atmospheric patterns—persistent cloud cover and moderate humidity—have capped warming, aligning with April climatological norms where daily highs average 19–22°C. JMA's early-morning forecast of 25°C has been revised downward by subsequent model runs reflecting observed cooling trends post-noon. Realistic challenges include rare late-day clearing leading to a brief 1–2°C spike before sunset, though probabilities remain negligible with the market nearing resolution based on official daily maximum reports.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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