Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering around 12–14°C for Istanbul's highest temperature on April 17, driven by short-range forecast models like ECMWF and GFS showing ensemble means near 13°C amid persistent northerly winds from a lingering upper-level trough over the Black Sea. Recent cold air advection from the Balkans, noted in Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) updates, has kept daytime highs 3–5°C below April climatological norms of 16–17°C, with partial cloud cover further capping solar heating. Differentiating factors include model disagreements on afternoon clearing and boundary-layer mixing, yielding a 2–3°C spread; final observational data from Florya station today could tip outcomes before resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoHighest temperature in Istanbul on April 17?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on April 17?
13°C 35%
12°C 29%
14°C 22%
11°C 13%
NUOVO
NUOVO
17 apr 2026
8°C or below
<1%
9°C
1%
10°C
4%
11°C
13%
12°C
29%
13°C
35%
14°C
22%
15°C
7%
16°C
2%
17°C
1%
18°C or higher
1%
13°C 35%
12°C 29%
14°C 22%
11°C 13%
NUOVO
NUOVO
17 apr 2026
8°C or below
$764 Vol.
<1%
9°C
$926 Vol.
1%
10°C
$514 Vol.
4%
11°C
$375 Vol.
13%
12°C
$267 Vol.
29%
13°C
$339 Vol.
35%
14°C
$250 Vol.
22%
15°C
$664 Vol.
7%
16°C
$265 Vol.
2%
17°C
$640 Vol.
1%
18°C or higher
$814 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering around 12–14°C for Istanbul's highest temperature on April 17, driven by short-range forecast models like ECMWF and GFS showing ensemble means near 13°C amid persistent northerly winds from a lingering upper-level trough over the Black Sea. Recent cold air advection from the Balkans, noted in Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) updates, has kept daytime highs 3–5°C below April climatological norms of 16–17°C, with partial cloud cover further capping solar heating. Differentiating factors include model disagreements on afternoon clearing and boundary-layer mixing, yielding a 2–3°C spread; final observational data from Florya station today could tip outcomes before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: Apr 15, 2026, 12:22 AM ET
Volume
$5,812Data di fine
17 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 15, 2026, 12:22 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering around 12–14°C for Istanbul's highest temperature on April 17, driven by short-range forecast models like ECMWF and GFS showing ensemble means near 13°C amid persistent northerly winds from a lingering upper-level trough over the Black Sea. Recent cold air advection from the Balkans, noted in Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) updates, has kept daytime highs 3–5°C below April climatological norms of 16–17°C, with partial cloud cover further capping solar heating. Differentiating factors include model disagreements on afternoon clearing and boundary-layer mixing, yielding a 2–3°C spread; final observational data from Florya station today could tip outcomes before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$5,812Data di fine
17 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 15, 2026, 12:22 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering around 12–14°C for Istanbul's highest temperature on April 17, driven by short-range forecast models like ECMWF and GFS showing ensemble means near 13°C amid persistent northerly winds from a lingering upper-level trough over the Black Sea. Recent cold air advection from the Balkans, noted in Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) updates, has kept daytime highs 3–5°C below April climatological norms of 16–17°C, with partial cloud cover further capping solar heating. Differentiating factors include model disagreements on afternoon clearing and boundary-layer mixing, yielding a 2–3°C spread; final observational data from Florya station today could tip outcomes before resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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