Trader consensus reflects an 88.6% implied probability for no launch of the Doge-1 lunar cubesat before 2027, driven by years of repeated delays since its 2021 announcement—originally targeting early 2022—and absence of a firm slot on SpaceX's Falcon 9 rideshare manifest. As of mid-April 2026, official updates from Geometric Energy Corporation and SpaceX list only tentative second-half 2026 windows, like September, amid packed launch cadences prioritizing Starlink and crewed missions. February's Elon Musk confirmation briefly boosted optimism but yielded no technical readiness milestones, such as final integration or orbital insertion testing. With eight months remaining, historical smallsat rideshare precedents show frequent slips due to payload certification and vehicle availability; watch SpaceX's next manifest refresh for shifts.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa Missione Lunare Doge-1 partirà prima del 2027?
La Missione Lunare Doge-1 partirà prima del 2027?
Sì
$763,917 Vol.
$763,917 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
$763,917 Vol.
$763,917 Vol.
31 dic 2026
If the Doge-1 12U Lunar Cube satellite successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the satellite with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.Trader consensus reflects an 88.6% implied probability for no launch of the Doge-1 lunar cubesat before 2027, driven by years of repeated delays since its 2021 announcement—originally targeting early 2022—and absence of a firm slot on SpaceX's Falcon 9 rideshare manifest. As of mid-April 2026, official updates from Geometric Energy Corporation and SpaceX list only tentative second-half 2026 windows, like September, amid packed launch cadences prioritizing Starlink and crewed missions. February's Elon Musk confirmation briefly boosted optimism but yielded no technical readiness milestones, such as final integration or orbital insertion testing. With eight months remaining, historical smallsat rideshare precedents show frequent slips due to payload certification and vehicle availability; watch SpaceX's next manifest refresh for shifts.
If the Doge-1 12U Lunar Cube satellite successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the satellite with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the satellite with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.
Mercato aperto: Jan 7, 2026, 6:07 PM ET
Volume
$763,917Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 7, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...If the Doge-1 12U Lunar Cube satellite successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the satellite with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.Trader consensus reflects an 88.6% implied probability for no launch of the Doge-1 lunar cubesat before 2027, driven by years of repeated delays since its 2021 announcement—originally targeting early 2022—and absence of a firm slot on SpaceX's Falcon 9 rideshare manifest. As of mid-April 2026, official updates from Geometric Energy Corporation and SpaceX list only tentative second-half 2026 windows, like September, amid packed launch cadences prioritizing Starlink and crewed missions. February's Elon Musk confirmation briefly boosted optimism but yielded no technical readiness milestones, such as final integration or orbital insertion testing. With eight months remaining, historical smallsat rideshare precedents show frequent slips due to payload certification and vehicle availability; watch SpaceX's next manifest refresh for shifts.
If the Doge-1 12U Lunar Cube satellite successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the satellite with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the satellite with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.
Volume
$763,917Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 7, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects an 88.6% implied probability for no launch of the Doge-1 lunar cubesat before 2027, driven by years of repeated delays since its 2021 announcement—originally targeting early 2022—and absence of a firm slot on SpaceX's Falcon 9 rideshare manifest. As of mid-April 2026, official updates from Geometric Energy Corporation and SpaceX list only tentative second-half 2026 windows, like September, amid packed launch cadences prioritizing Starlink and crewed missions. February's Elon Musk confirmation briefly boosted optimism but yielded no technical readiness milestones, such as final integration or orbital insertion testing. With eight months remaining, historical smallsat rideshare precedents show frequent slips due to payload certification and vehicle availability; watch SpaceX's next manifest refresh for shifts.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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