Trader consensus favors 13 SpaceX launches in April at 38.5% implied probability, driven by six successful Falcon 9 missions already completed by April 16—including back-to-back liftoffs on April 11 (Starlink and NG-24 Cygnus) and April 14 (marking the 1,000th Starlink satellite of 2026)—showcasing peak cadence across Florida and California pads. With 14 days remaining, scheduled Starlink groups on April 18, 22, and 25, plus GPS III-10 on April 20 and a potential Falcon Heavy ViaSat-3, position 13 as frontrunner, but ≤11 (29.2%) and 12 (19.8%) remain viable amid risks like weather delays, range conflicts, or payload slips from Q2 manifests. High uncertainty persists as SpaceX's aggressive trajectory tests pad turnaround limits.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoHow many SpaceX launches in April?
How many SpaceX launches in April?
≤11 48.9%
12 26.5%
13 24%
14 4.0%
$43,237 Vol.
$43,237 Vol.
30 apr 2026
≤11
30%
12
20%
13
41%
14
4%
15
3%
16
2%
17 or more
1%
≤11 48.9%
12 26.5%
13 24%
14 4.0%
$43,237 Vol.
$43,237 Vol.
30 apr 2026
≤11
$616 Vol.
30%
12
$283 Vol.
20%
13
$12,017 Vol.
41%
14
$22,068 Vol.
4%
15
$301 Vol.
3%
16
$6,949 Vol.
2%
17 or more
$1,003 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between April 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET.
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.Trader consensus favors 13 SpaceX launches in April at 38.5% implied probability, driven by six successful Falcon 9 missions already completed by April 16—including back-to-back liftoffs on April 11 (Starlink and NG-24 Cygnus) and April 14 (marking the 1,000th Starlink satellite of 2026)—showcasing peak cadence across Florida and California pads. With 14 days remaining, scheduled Starlink groups on April 18, 22, and 25, plus GPS III-10 on April 20 and a potential Falcon Heavy ViaSat-3, position 13 as frontrunner, but ≤11 (29.2%) and 12 (19.8%) remain viable amid risks like weather delays, range conflicts, or payload slips from Q2 manifests. High uncertainty persists as SpaceX's aggressive trajectory tests pad turnaround limits.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between April 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET.
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
Mercato aperto: Mar 24, 2026, 5:14 PM ET
Volume
$43,237Data di fine
30 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 24, 2026, 5:14 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between April 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET.
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.Trader consensus favors 13 SpaceX launches in April at 38.5% implied probability, driven by six successful Falcon 9 missions already completed by April 16—including back-to-back liftoffs on April 11 (Starlink and NG-24 Cygnus) and April 14 (marking the 1,000th Starlink satellite of 2026)—showcasing peak cadence across Florida and California pads. With 14 days remaining, scheduled Starlink groups on April 18, 22, and 25, plus GPS III-10 on April 20 and a potential Falcon Heavy ViaSat-3, position 13 as frontrunner, but ≤11 (29.2%) and 12 (19.8%) remain viable amid risks like weather delays, range conflicts, or payload slips from Q2 manifests. High uncertainty persists as SpaceX's aggressive trajectory tests pad turnaround limits.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between April 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET.
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
Volume
$43,237Data di fine
30 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 24, 2026, 5:14 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors 13 SpaceX launches in April at 38.5% implied probability, driven by six successful Falcon 9 missions already completed by April 16—including back-to-back liftoffs on April 11 (Starlink and NG-24 Cygnus) and April 14 (marking the 1,000th Starlink satellite of 2026)—showcasing peak cadence across Florida and California pads. With 14 days remaining, scheduled Starlink groups on April 18, 22, and 25, plus GPS III-10 on April 20 and a potential Falcon Heavy ViaSat-3, position 13 as frontrunner, but ≤11 (29.2%) and 12 (19.8%) remain viable amid risks like weather delays, range conflicts, or payload slips from Q2 manifests. High uncertainty persists as SpaceX's aggressive trajectory tests pad turnaround limits.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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