The short remaining window until the end of 2026 is the dominant factor behind the 87% market-implied probability of no magnitude 6.5+ earthquake striking the Los Angeles area. USGS seismic records show only minor activity, including recent magnitude 4.1–4.3 events near the San Andreas fault north of LA, consistent with background rates rather than foreshock sequences. Regional faults exhibit long recurrence intervals for large ruptures, typically decades to centuries, with no current strain accumulation signals or elevated seismicity indicating heightened near-term risk. Ongoing monitoring by the USGS and Southern California Earthquake Data Center continues to track these patterns without triggering elevated alerts.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoTerremoto di magnitudo 6.5+ a Los Angeles prima del 2027?
Terremoto di magnitudo 6.5+ a Los Angeles prima del 2027?
$15,133 Vol.
$15,133 Vol.
31 dic 2026
$15,133 Vol.
$15,133 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.The short remaining window until the end of 2026 is the dominant factor behind the 87% market-implied probability of no magnitude 6.5+ earthquake striking the Los Angeles area. USGS seismic records show only minor activity, including recent magnitude 4.1–4.3 events near the San Andreas fault north of LA, consistent with background rates rather than foreshock sequences. Regional faults exhibit long recurrence intervals for large ruptures, typically decades to centuries, with no current strain accumulation signals or elevated seismicity indicating heightened near-term risk. Ongoing monitoring by the USGS and Southern California Earthquake Data Center continues to track these patterns without triggering elevated alerts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Mercato aperto: Apr 3, 2026, 6:41 PM ET
Volume
$15,133Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 3, 2026, 6:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.The short remaining window until the end of 2026 is the dominant factor behind the 87% market-implied probability of no magnitude 6.5+ earthquake striking the Los Angeles area. USGS seismic records show only minor activity, including recent magnitude 4.1–4.3 events near the San Andreas fault north of LA, consistent with background rates rather than foreshock sequences. Regional faults exhibit long recurrence intervals for large ruptures, typically decades to centuries, with no current strain accumulation signals or elevated seismicity indicating heightened near-term risk. Ongoing monitoring by the USGS and Southern California Earthquake Data Center continues to track these patterns without triggering elevated alerts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Volume
$15,133Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 3, 2026, 6:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The short remaining window until the end of 2026 is the dominant factor behind the 87% market-implied probability of no magnitude 6.5+ earthquake striking the Los Angeles area. USGS seismic records show only minor activity, including recent magnitude 4.1–4.3 events near the San Andreas fault north of LA, consistent with background rates rather than foreshock sequences. Regional faults exhibit long recurrence intervals for large ruptures, typically decades to centuries, with no current strain accumulation signals or elevated seismicity indicating heightened near-term risk. Ongoing monitoring by the USGS and Southern California Earthquake Data Center continues to track these patterns without triggering elevated alerts.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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