Recent seismic monitoring by the USGS and Southern California Seismic Network shows only minor events below magnitude 4 in the Los Angeles region through late August 2026, with no foreshock sequences or strain indicators pointing to rapid escalation. Long-term UCERF3 models place the 30-year probability of a magnitude 6.7+ event near 60 percent, but annualized rates for a magnitude 6.5+ quake remain low at roughly 0.2–2 percent per year in central Los Angeles, rendering the odds of occurrence before January 2027 minimal. June 2026 studies highlighting millennium-high tectonic stress on the southern San Andreas and San Jacinto faults underscore elevated long-term hazard yet do not alter short-term forecasts, as experts note the absence of imminent rupture signals. Trader consensus at 89.6 percent for no event aligns with these baselines and the compressed four-month window.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoTerremoto di magnitudo 6.5+ a Los Angeles prima del 2027?
Terremoto di magnitudo 6.5+ a Los Angeles prima del 2027?
4% probabilità
$16,545 Vol.
$16,545 Vol.
31 dic 2026
4% probabilità
$16,545 Vol.
$16,545 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.Recent seismic monitoring by the USGS and Southern California Seismic Network shows only minor events below magnitude 4 in the Los Angeles region through late August 2026, with no foreshock sequences or strain indicators pointing to rapid escalation. Long-term UCERF3 models place the 30-year probability of a magnitude 6.7+ event near 60 percent, but annualized rates for a magnitude 6.5+ quake remain low at roughly 0.2–2 percent per year in central Los Angeles, rendering the odds of occurrence before January 2027 minimal. June 2026 studies highlighting millennium-high tectonic stress on the southern San Andreas and San Jacinto faults underscore elevated long-term hazard yet do not alter short-term forecasts, as experts note the absence of imminent rupture signals. Trader consensus at 89.6 percent for no event aligns with these baselines and the compressed four-month window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Mercato aperto: Apr 3, 2026, 6:41 PM ET
Volume
$16,545Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Apr 3, 2026, 6:41 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.Recent seismic monitoring by the USGS and Southern California Seismic Network shows only minor events below magnitude 4 in the Los Angeles region through late August 2026, with no foreshock sequences or strain indicators pointing to rapid escalation. Long-term UCERF3 models place the 30-year probability of a magnitude 6.7+ event near 60 percent, but annualized rates for a magnitude 6.5+ quake remain low at roughly 0.2–2 percent per year in central Los Angeles, rendering the odds of occurrence before January 2027 minimal. June 2026 studies highlighting millennium-high tectonic stress on the southern San Andreas and San Jacinto faults underscore elevated long-term hazard yet do not alter short-term forecasts, as experts note the absence of imminent rupture signals. Trader consensus at 89.6 percent for no event aligns with these baselines and the compressed four-month window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Volume
$16,545Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Apr 3, 2026, 6:41 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...Recent seismic monitoring by the USGS and Southern California Seismic Network shows only minor events below magnitude 4 in the Los Angeles region through late August 2026, with no foreshock sequences or strain indicators pointing to rapid escalation. Long-term UCERF3 models place the 30-year probability of a magnitude 6.7+ event near 60 percent, but annualized rates for a magnitude 6.5+ quake remain low at roughly 0.2–2 percent per year in central Los Angeles, rendering the odds of occurrence before January 2027 minimal. June 2026 studies highlighting millennium-high tectonic stress on the southern San Andreas and San Jacinto faults underscore elevated long-term hazard yet do not alter short-term forecasts, as experts note the absence of imminent rupture signals. Trader consensus at 89.6 percent for no event aligns with these baselines and the compressed four-month window.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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