The low 10.7% market-implied probability of a VEI ≥6 eruption in 2026 reflects the events' historical rarity—roughly one per 50–100 years on average—combined with the absence of any monitored volcano displaying the sustained seismic swarms, rapid deformation, or extreme gas emissions that precede such colossal Plinian events. As of early September, global networks including the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program and USGS report only moderate ongoing activity at sites like Semeru, Lewotobi, and Great Sitkin, all well below VEI 4 thresholds, with no candidate systems approaching the scale of historical analogs such as Pinatubo 1991. With four months left and no escalation detected, trader consensus aligns with baseline odds.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoGrande eruzione vulcanica (vei ≥6) nel 2026?
Grande eruzione vulcanica (vei ≥6) nel 2026?
10% probabilità
$145,341 Vol.
$145,341 Vol.
30 mar 2027
10% probabilità
$145,341 Vol.
$145,341 Vol.
30 mar 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.The low 10.7% market-implied probability of a VEI ≥6 eruption in 2026 reflects the events' historical rarity—roughly one per 50–100 years on average—combined with the absence of any monitored volcano displaying the sustained seismic swarms, rapid deformation, or extreme gas emissions that precede such colossal Plinian events. As of early September, global networks including the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program and USGS report only moderate ongoing activity at sites like Semeru, Lewotobi, and Great Sitkin, all well below VEI 4 thresholds, with no candidate systems approaching the scale of historical analogs such as Pinatubo 1991. With four months left and no escalation detected, trader consensus aligns with baseline odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
Volume
$145,341Data di fine
31 mar 2027Mercato aperto
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.The low 10.7% market-implied probability of a VEI ≥6 eruption in 2026 reflects the events' historical rarity—roughly one per 50–100 years on average—combined with the absence of any monitored volcano displaying the sustained seismic swarms, rapid deformation, or extreme gas emissions that precede such colossal Plinian events. As of early September, global networks including the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program and USGS report only moderate ongoing activity at sites like Semeru, Lewotobi, and Great Sitkin, all well below VEI 4 thresholds, with no candidate systems approaching the scale of historical analogs such as Pinatubo 1991. With four months left and no escalation detected, trader consensus aligns with baseline odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Volume
$145,341Data di fine
31 mar 2027Mercato aperto
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...The low 10.7% market-implied probability of a VEI ≥6 eruption in 2026 reflects the events' historical rarity—roughly one per 50–100 years on average—combined with the absence of any monitored volcano displaying the sustained seismic swarms, rapid deformation, or extreme gas emissions that precede such colossal Plinian events. As of early September, global networks including the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program and USGS report only moderate ongoing activity at sites like Semeru, Lewotobi, and Great Sitkin, all well below VEI 4 thresholds, with no candidate systems approaching the scale of historical analogs such as Pinatubo 1991. With four months left and no escalation detected, trader consensus aligns with baseline odds.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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