Mount Etna's frequent summit and flank activity in 2026, including January and June–July effusive phases plus the August Voragine paroxysm with Strombolian explosions, lava fountains, and ash plumes that disrupted Catania flights, has kept the VEI 2+ market near even at 53.5% Yes. Key uncertainties center on whether these events meet the VEI 2 threshold (moderate explosive or effusive output with notable ash) versus lower-level degassing or VEI 1, given INGV data on tremor amplitude, effusion rates around 1–3 m³/s, and vent evolution in the Valle del Bove. Continued monitoring of seismic tremor, thermal anomalies, and new fissure openings through year-end, plus any late-2026 paroxysm or flank event, could shift trader consensus decisively as Etna's episodic behavior often produces rapid escalations.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoEtna eruption with VEI 2+ in 2026?
Etna eruption with VEI 2+ in 2026?
0% probabilità
NUOVO
NUOVO
31 dic 2026
0% probabilità
NUOVO
NUOVO
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Etna volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 2 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Mount Etna's frequent summit and flank activity in 2026, including January and June–July effusive phases plus the August Voragine paroxysm with Strombolian explosions, lava fountains, and ash plumes that disrupted Catania flights, has kept the VEI 2+ market near even at 53.5% Yes. Key uncertainties center on whether these events meet the VEI 2 threshold (moderate explosive or effusive output with notable ash) versus lower-level degassing or VEI 1, given INGV data on tremor amplitude, effusion rates around 1–3 m³/s, and vent evolution in the Valle del Bove. Continued monitoring of seismic tremor, thermal anomalies, and new fissure openings through year-end, plus any late-2026 paroxysm or flank event, could shift trader consensus decisively as Etna's episodic behavior often produces rapid escalations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Etna volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 2 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Mercato aperto: Apr 21, 2026, 3:33 PM ET
Volume
$21Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Apr 21, 2026, 3:33 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Etna volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 2 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Mount Etna's frequent summit and flank activity in 2026, including January and June–July effusive phases plus the August Voragine paroxysm with Strombolian explosions, lava fountains, and ash plumes that disrupted Catania flights, has kept the VEI 2+ market near even at 53.5% Yes. Key uncertainties center on whether these events meet the VEI 2 threshold (moderate explosive or effusive output with notable ash) versus lower-level degassing or VEI 1, given INGV data on tremor amplitude, effusion rates around 1–3 m³/s, and vent evolution in the Valle del Bove. Continued monitoring of seismic tremor, thermal anomalies, and new fissure openings through year-end, plus any late-2026 paroxysm or flank event, could shift trader consensus decisively as Etna's episodic behavior often produces rapid escalations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Etna volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 2 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Volume
$21Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Apr 21, 2026, 3:33 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...Mount Etna's frequent summit and flank activity in 2026, including January and June–July effusive phases plus the August Voragine paroxysm with Strombolian explosions, lava fountains, and ash plumes that disrupted Catania flights, has kept the VEI 2+ market near even at 53.5% Yes. Key uncertainties center on whether these events meet the VEI 2 threshold (moderate explosive or effusive output with notable ash) versus lower-level degassing or VEI 1, given INGV data on tremor amplitude, effusion rates around 1–3 m³/s, and vent evolution in the Valle del Bove. Continued monitoring of seismic tremor, thermal anomalies, and new fissure openings through year-end, plus any late-2026 paroxysm or flank event, could shift trader consensus decisively as Etna's episodic behavior often produces rapid escalations.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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