Tropical Storm Saudel (17W) is currently positioned east of the Northern Mariana Islands near 13°N 150°E, moving north-northwest at around 10-15 km/h with maximum sustained winds of 45-50 mph. Official forecasts from JTWC and regional agencies show the system remaining over open waters in the western Pacific for the near term, with limited risk of direct landfall on major islands such as Guam, Saipan, or the Philippines in the next several days. Primary drivers of trader positioning include ensemble model consensus on steering flow, potential for gradual intensification into a typhoon, and any eastward or poleward shifts that could alter the track toward Japan or the Ryukyu Islands later in the week. Updates to official advisories and satellite trends over the coming 48 hours will likely dominate shifts in implied probabilities for specific landfall options.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoDove arriverà la tempesta tropicale Saudel?
Dove arriverà la tempesta tropicale Saudel?
NUOVO
31 ago 2026
Cina
63%
Giappone
57%
Corea del Sud
17%
$1,031 Vol.
Cina
$727 Vol.
63%
Giappone
$124 Vol.
57%
Corea del Sud
$180 Vol.
17%
Each market in this group asks whether Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) will make landfall in the country named in that market's title, on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026. The qualifying crossing must occur on or before that deadline; confirmation may arrive afterward. Each market resolves "No" if no qualifying crossing of its country's territory has occurred by the deadline.
A market resolves "Yes" if the center of Saudel's circulation physically crosses the coastline of that country, as plotted by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories placing the center over that country's land (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or as confirmed by credible international news reporting.
JMA is the primary resolution source: if a JMA advisory plots the center over a country's land, that market resolves "Yes" regardless of what other sources say; if no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms the center crossed the coastline between discrete advisory fixes, the market also resolves "Yes." A disagreement exists only when a JMA advisory and credible reporting make contradictory claims about the storm's position at the same point in time; in that case, JMA is the default resolution source.
Territorial definitions:
"China" refers to all territory under the administration of the People's Republic of China, including the Special Administrative Regions of Hong Kong and Macau, and excluding Taiwan.
"Japan" refers to all territory under the administration of Japan, including the four main islands (Honshu, Hokkaido, Kyushu, and Shikoku), Okinawa, the Ryukyu Islands, the Ogasawara Islands, and all other Japanese islands.
"South Korea" refers to all territory under the administration of the Republic of Korea, including Jeju Island and all outlying islands.
The most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the crossing must classify Saudel as a tropical cyclone (tropical depression or higher); a crossing while the system is extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed does not count. For every market, the classification and position determination in effect immediately prior to the qualifying crossing are fixed by that single JMA advisory and are not changed by any later real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis. Tropical Storm Saudel (17W) is currently positioned east of the Northern Mariana Islands near 13°N 150°E, moving north-northwest at around 10-15 km/h with maximum sustained winds of 45-50 mph. Official forecasts from JTWC and regional agencies show the system remaining over open waters in the western Pacific for the near term, with limited risk of direct landfall on major islands such as Guam, Saipan, or the Philippines in the next several days. Primary drivers of trader positioning include ensemble model consensus on steering flow, potential for gradual intensification into a typhoon, and any eastward or poleward shifts that could alter the track toward Japan or the Ryukyu Islands later in the week. Updates to official advisories and satellite trends over the coming 48 hours will likely dominate shifts in implied probabilities for specific landfall options.
Each market in this group asks whether Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) will make landfall in the country named in that market's title, on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026. The qualifying crossing must occur on or before that deadline; confirmation may arrive afterward. Each market resolves "No" if no qualifying crossing of its country's territory has occurred by the deadline.
A market resolves "Yes" if the center of Saudel's circulation physically crosses the coastline of that country, as plotted by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories placing the center over that country's land (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or as confirmed by credible international news reporting.
JMA is the primary resolution source: if a JMA advisory plots the center over a country's land, that market resolves "Yes" regardless of what other sources say; if no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms the center crossed the coastline between discrete advisory fixes, the market also resolves "Yes." A disagreement exists only when a JMA advisory and credible reporting make contradictory claims about the storm's position at the same point in time; in that case, JMA is the default resolution source.
Territorial definitions:
"China" refers to all territory under the administration of the People's Republic of China, including the Special Administrative Regions of Hong Kong and Macau, and excluding Taiwan.
"Japan" refers to all territory under the administration of Japan, including the four main islands (Honshu, Hokkaido, Kyushu, and Shikoku), Okinawa, the Ryukyu Islands, the Ogasawara Islands, and all other Japanese islands.
"South Korea" refers to all territory under the administration of the Republic of Korea, including Jeju Island and all outlying islands.
The most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the crossing must classify Saudel as a tropical cyclone (tropical depression or higher); a crossing while the system is extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed does not count. For every market, the classification and position determination in effect immediately prior to the qualifying crossing are fixed by that single JMA advisory and are not changed by any later real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis.
A market resolves "Yes" if the center of Saudel's circulation physically crosses the coastline of that country, as plotted by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories placing the center over that country's land (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or as confirmed by credible international news reporting.
JMA is the primary resolution source: if a JMA advisory plots the center over a country's land, that market resolves "Yes" regardless of what other sources say; if no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms the center crossed the coastline between discrete advisory fixes, the market also resolves "Yes." A disagreement exists only when a JMA advisory and credible reporting make contradictory claims about the storm's position at the same point in time; in that case, JMA is the default resolution source.
Territorial definitions:
"China" refers to all territory under the administration of the People's Republic of China, including the Special Administrative Regions of Hong Kong and Macau, and excluding Taiwan.
"Japan" refers to all territory under the administration of Japan, including the four main islands (Honshu, Hokkaido, Kyushu, and Shikoku), Okinawa, the Ryukyu Islands, the Ogasawara Islands, and all other Japanese islands.
"South Korea" refers to all territory under the administration of the Republic of Korea, including Jeju Island and all outlying islands.
The most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the crossing must classify Saudel as a tropical cyclone (tropical depression or higher); a crossing while the system is extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed does not count. For every market, the classification and position determination in effect immediately prior to the qualifying crossing are fixed by that single JMA advisory and are not changed by any later real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis.
Mercato aperto: Aug 20, 2026, 11:14 AM ET
Volume
$1,031Data di fine
1 set 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 20, 2026, 11:14 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=enResolver
0x65070BE91...Each market in this group asks whether Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) will make landfall in the country named in that market's title, on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026. The qualifying crossing must occur on or before that deadline; confirmation may arrive afterward. Each market resolves "No" if no qualifying crossing of its country's territory has occurred by the deadline.
A market resolves "Yes" if the center of Saudel's circulation physically crosses the coastline of that country, as plotted by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories placing the center over that country's land (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or as confirmed by credible international news reporting.
JMA is the primary resolution source: if a JMA advisory plots the center over a country's land, that market resolves "Yes" regardless of what other sources say; if no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms the center crossed the coastline between discrete advisory fixes, the market also resolves "Yes." A disagreement exists only when a JMA advisory and credible reporting make contradictory claims about the storm's position at the same point in time; in that case, JMA is the default resolution source.
Territorial definitions:
"China" refers to all territory under the administration of the People's Republic of China, including the Special Administrative Regions of Hong Kong and Macau, and excluding Taiwan.
"Japan" refers to all territory under the administration of Japan, including the four main islands (Honshu, Hokkaido, Kyushu, and Shikoku), Okinawa, the Ryukyu Islands, the Ogasawara Islands, and all other Japanese islands.
"South Korea" refers to all territory under the administration of the Republic of Korea, including Jeju Island and all outlying islands.
The most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the crossing must classify Saudel as a tropical cyclone (tropical depression or higher); a crossing while the system is extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed does not count. For every market, the classification and position determination in effect immediately prior to the qualifying crossing are fixed by that single JMA advisory and are not changed by any later real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis. Tropical Storm Saudel (17W) is currently positioned east of the Northern Mariana Islands near 13°N 150°E, moving north-northwest at around 10-15 km/h with maximum sustained winds of 45-50 mph. Official forecasts from JTWC and regional agencies show the system remaining over open waters in the western Pacific for the near term, with limited risk of direct landfall on major islands such as Guam, Saipan, or the Philippines in the next several days. Primary drivers of trader positioning include ensemble model consensus on steering flow, potential for gradual intensification into a typhoon, and any eastward or poleward shifts that could alter the track toward Japan or the Ryukyu Islands later in the week. Updates to official advisories and satellite trends over the coming 48 hours will likely dominate shifts in implied probabilities for specific landfall options.
Each market in this group asks whether Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) will make landfall in the country named in that market's title, on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026. The qualifying crossing must occur on or before that deadline; confirmation may arrive afterward. Each market resolves "No" if no qualifying crossing of its country's territory has occurred by the deadline.
A market resolves "Yes" if the center of Saudel's circulation physically crosses the coastline of that country, as plotted by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories placing the center over that country's land (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or as confirmed by credible international news reporting.
JMA is the primary resolution source: if a JMA advisory plots the center over a country's land, that market resolves "Yes" regardless of what other sources say; if no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms the center crossed the coastline between discrete advisory fixes, the market also resolves "Yes." A disagreement exists only when a JMA advisory and credible reporting make contradictory claims about the storm's position at the same point in time; in that case, JMA is the default resolution source.
Territorial definitions:
"China" refers to all territory under the administration of the People's Republic of China, including the Special Administrative Regions of Hong Kong and Macau, and excluding Taiwan.
"Japan" refers to all territory under the administration of Japan, including the four main islands (Honshu, Hokkaido, Kyushu, and Shikoku), Okinawa, the Ryukyu Islands, the Ogasawara Islands, and all other Japanese islands.
"South Korea" refers to all territory under the administration of the Republic of Korea, including Jeju Island and all outlying islands.
The most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the crossing must classify Saudel as a tropical cyclone (tropical depression or higher); a crossing while the system is extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed does not count. For every market, the classification and position determination in effect immediately prior to the qualifying crossing are fixed by that single JMA advisory and are not changed by any later real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis.
A market resolves "Yes" if the center of Saudel's circulation physically crosses the coastline of that country, as plotted by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories placing the center over that country's land (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or as confirmed by credible international news reporting.
JMA is the primary resolution source: if a JMA advisory plots the center over a country's land, that market resolves "Yes" regardless of what other sources say; if no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms the center crossed the coastline between discrete advisory fixes, the market also resolves "Yes." A disagreement exists only when a JMA advisory and credible reporting make contradictory claims about the storm's position at the same point in time; in that case, JMA is the default resolution source.
Territorial definitions:
"China" refers to all territory under the administration of the People's Republic of China, including the Special Administrative Regions of Hong Kong and Macau, and excluding Taiwan.
"Japan" refers to all territory under the administration of Japan, including the four main islands (Honshu, Hokkaido, Kyushu, and Shikoku), Okinawa, the Ryukyu Islands, the Ogasawara Islands, and all other Japanese islands.
"South Korea" refers to all territory under the administration of the Republic of Korea, including Jeju Island and all outlying islands.
The most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the crossing must classify Saudel as a tropical cyclone (tropical depression or higher); a crossing while the system is extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed does not count. For every market, the classification and position determination in effect immediately prior to the qualifying crossing are fixed by that single JMA advisory and are not changed by any later real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis.
Volume
$1,031Data di fine
1 set 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 20, 2026, 11:14 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=enResolver
0x65070BE91...Tropical Storm Saudel (17W) is currently positioned east of the Northern Mariana Islands near 13°N 150°E, moving north-northwest at around 10-15 km/h with maximum sustained winds of 45-50 mph. Official forecasts from JTWC and regional agencies show the system remaining over open waters in the western Pacific for the near term, with limited risk of direct landfall on major islands such as Guam, Saipan, or the Philippines in the next several days. Primary drivers of trader positioning include ensemble model consensus on steering flow, potential for gradual intensification into a typhoon, and any eastward or poleward shifts that could alter the track toward Japan or the Ryukyu Islands later in the week. Updates to official advisories and satellite trends over the coming 48 hours will likely dominate shifts in implied probabilities for specific landfall options.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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