Recent forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and models indicate thundery showers and moderate rain on August 21, 2026, positioning daily maximum temperatures near 30°C as the most probable outcome and supporting the 40% market-implied odds for exactly that threshold. Persistent low-pressure troughs over the South China Sea favor convective activity that limits peak heating, aligning with the seasonal outlook for normal to above-normal temperatures amid ongoing climate warming trends. Historical August averages of 31–32°C highs provide context, while any clearer intervals could allow brief rises toward 31–32°C. Updated model runs and the next 48-hour forecast briefings will refine these probabilities before resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più alta di Hong Kong il 21 agosto?
La temperatura più alta di Hong Kong il 21 agosto?
30°C 41%
31°C 27%
29°C 19%
28°C 8%
NUOVO
NUOVO
21 ago 2026
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
8%
29°C
19%
30°C
41%
31°C
27%
32°C
7%
33°C
3%
34°C or higher
3%
30°C 41%
31°C 27%
29°C 19%
28°C 8%
NUOVO
NUOVO
21 ago 2026
24°C or below
$464 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$555 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$352 Vol.
1%
27°C
$1,163 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$1,201 Vol.
8%
29°C
$163 Vol.
19%
30°C
$113 Vol.
41%
31°C
$135 Vol.
27%
32°C
$44 Vol.
7%
33°C
$80 Vol.
3%
34°C or higher
$66 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and models indicate thundery showers and moderate rain on August 21, 2026, positioning daily maximum temperatures near 30°C as the most probable outcome and supporting the 40% market-implied odds for exactly that threshold. Persistent low-pressure troughs over the South China Sea favor convective activity that limits peak heating, aligning with the seasonal outlook for normal to above-normal temperatures amid ongoing climate warming trends. Historical August averages of 31–32°C highs provide context, while any clearer intervals could allow brief rises toward 31–32°C. Updated model runs and the next 48-hour forecast briefings will refine these probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: Aug 19, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$4,335Data di fine
21 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 19, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and models indicate thundery showers and moderate rain on August 21, 2026, positioning daily maximum temperatures near 30°C as the most probable outcome and supporting the 40% market-implied odds for exactly that threshold. Persistent low-pressure troughs over the South China Sea favor convective activity that limits peak heating, aligning with the seasonal outlook for normal to above-normal temperatures amid ongoing climate warming trends. Historical August averages of 31–32°C highs provide context, while any clearer intervals could allow brief rises toward 31–32°C. Updated model runs and the next 48-hour forecast briefings will refine these probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$4,335Data di fine
21 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 19, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and models indicate thundery showers and moderate rain on August 21, 2026, positioning daily maximum temperatures near 30°C as the most probable outcome and supporting the 40% market-implied odds for exactly that threshold. Persistent low-pressure troughs over the South China Sea favor convective activity that limits peak heating, aligning with the seasonal outlook for normal to above-normal temperatures amid ongoing climate warming trends. Historical August averages of 31–32°C highs provide context, while any clearer intervals could allow brief rises toward 31–32°C. Updated model runs and the next 48-hour forecast briefings will refine these probabilities before resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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