Vesuvius remains at the INGV Osservatorio Vesuviano’s green alert level through mid-2026, with only background seismicity of roughly 90 low-energy events per month (maximum magnitude ~2.0–2.2), no detectable ground deformation linked to magma, stable crater temperatures, and a long-term decline in hydrothermal emissions. This pattern matches the volcano’s post-1944 quiescence, during which even modest VEI 1+ events have historically been separated by decades to centuries. With four months left in 2026 and no precursors such as long-period earthquakes or inflation observed, traders assign a 94.8% implied probability to “No.” An abrupt seismic swarm or rapid uplift could theoretically signal ascent, but such developments would require weeks to months of escalation unlikely to culminate before year-end under current conditions.