As of April 16, no magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquakes have occurred worldwide since the market window opened on April 13, per USGS monitoring, driving the 65% trader consensus for zero events through April 19. This aligns with historical global averages of roughly 0.2–0.3 such quakes per week, modeled as a Poisson process reflecting steady tectonic strain release without predictable clustering. Recent Nevada M5.7 swarm activity produced numerous aftershocks but none reaching the threshold, and no anomalous seismic patterns—such as foreshock sequences or strain accumulation on major fault lines—appear in current USGS data. Traders anticipate low probability for escalation, with real-time updates from USGS feeds likely to influence remaining odds over the next three days.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoQuanti terremoti di magnitudo 6.5 o superiore dal 13 al 19 aprile?
Quanti terremoti di magnitudo 6.5 o superiore dal 13 al 19 aprile?
0 65%
1 26%
2 8%
3 1.7%
$29,593 Vol.
$29,593 Vol.
19 apr 2026
0
65%
1
26%
2
8%
3
2%
4
1%
5
<1%
>5
<1%
0 65%
1 26%
2 8%
3 1.7%
$29,593 Vol.
$29,593 Vol.
19 apr 2026
0
$9,753 Vol.
65%
1
$7,003 Vol.
26%
2
$3,690 Vol.
8%
3
$1,475 Vol.
2%
4
$3,268 Vol.
1%
5
$2,139 Vol.
<1%
>5
$2,997 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 13, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.As of April 16, no magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquakes have occurred worldwide since the market window opened on April 13, per USGS monitoring, driving the 65% trader consensus for zero events through April 19. This aligns with historical global averages of roughly 0.2–0.3 such quakes per week, modeled as a Poisson process reflecting steady tectonic strain release without predictable clustering. Recent Nevada M5.7 swarm activity produced numerous aftershocks but none reaching the threshold, and no anomalous seismic patterns—such as foreshock sequences or strain accumulation on major fault lines—appear in current USGS data. Traders anticipate low probability for escalation, with real-time updates from USGS feeds likely to influence remaining odds over the next three days.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 13, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Mercato aperto: Apr 10, 2026, 4:24 PM ET
Volume
$29,593Data di fine
19 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 10, 2026, 4:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 13, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.As of April 16, no magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquakes have occurred worldwide since the market window opened on April 13, per USGS monitoring, driving the 65% trader consensus for zero events through April 19. This aligns with historical global averages of roughly 0.2–0.3 such quakes per week, modeled as a Poisson process reflecting steady tectonic strain release without predictable clustering. Recent Nevada M5.7 swarm activity produced numerous aftershocks but none reaching the threshold, and no anomalous seismic patterns—such as foreshock sequences or strain accumulation on major fault lines—appear in current USGS data. Traders anticipate low probability for escalation, with real-time updates from USGS feeds likely to influence remaining odds over the next three days.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 13, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$29,593Data di fine
19 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 10, 2026, 4:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...As of April 16, no magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquakes have occurred worldwide since the market window opened on April 13, per USGS monitoring, driving the 65% trader consensus for zero events through April 19. This aligns with historical global averages of roughly 0.2–0.3 such quakes per week, modeled as a Poisson process reflecting steady tectonic strain release without predictable clustering. Recent Nevada M5.7 swarm activity produced numerous aftershocks but none reaching the threshold, and no anomalous seismic patterns—such as foreshock sequences or strain accumulation on major fault lines—appear in current USGS data. Traders anticipate low probability for escalation, with real-time updates from USGS feeds likely to influence remaining odds over the next three days.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti