Trader consensus implies an 89.5% probability of no Category 5 hurricane—defined by the Saffir-Simpson scale as sustained winds exceeding 157 mph—making landfall on the U.S. mainland before 2027, driven by the event's extreme historical rarity, with only four such strikes since 1851: the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane, Camille in 1969, Andrew in 1992, and Michael in 2018. The hyperactive 2025 Atlantic season produced three Category 5 storms (Erin, Humberto, Melissa) yet saw no U.S. hurricane landfalls at all—the first such year since 2015—due to unfavorable steering patterns keeping intensifying systems offshore or over other regions like Jamaica. Early 2026 outlooks from Colorado State University forecast below-normal activity amid weak La Niña conditions expected to transition, with just a 32% chance of any major hurricane (Category 3+) hitting the U.S. coastline per recent models; NOAA's seasonal updates in May and June 1 start of the season will refine probabilities amid inherent forecast uncertainty.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoQualche uragano di categoria 5 arriverà negli Stati Uniti prima del 2027?
Qualche uragano di categoria 5 arriverà negli Stati Uniti prima del 2027?
Sì
$131,442 Vol.
$131,442 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
$131,442 Vol.
$131,442 Vol.
31 dic 2026
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Trader consensus implies an 89.5% probability of no Category 5 hurricane—defined by the Saffir-Simpson scale as sustained winds exceeding 157 mph—making landfall on the U.S. mainland before 2027, driven by the event's extreme historical rarity, with only four such strikes since 1851: the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane, Camille in 1969, Andrew in 1992, and Michael in 2018. The hyperactive 2025 Atlantic season produced three Category 5 storms (Erin, Humberto, Melissa) yet saw no U.S. hurricane landfalls at all—the first such year since 2015—due to unfavorable steering patterns keeping intensifying systems offshore or over other regions like Jamaica. Early 2026 outlooks from Colorado State University forecast below-normal activity amid weak La Niña conditions expected to transition, with just a 32% chance of any major hurricane (Category 3+) hitting the U.S. coastline per recent models; NOAA's seasonal updates in May and June 1 start of the season will refine probabilities amid inherent forecast uncertainty.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Mercato aperto: Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ET
Volume
$131,442Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Trader consensus implies an 89.5% probability of no Category 5 hurricane—defined by the Saffir-Simpson scale as sustained winds exceeding 157 mph—making landfall on the U.S. mainland before 2027, driven by the event's extreme historical rarity, with only four such strikes since 1851: the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane, Camille in 1969, Andrew in 1992, and Michael in 2018. The hyperactive 2025 Atlantic season produced three Category 5 storms (Erin, Humberto, Melissa) yet saw no U.S. hurricane landfalls at all—the first such year since 2015—due to unfavorable steering patterns keeping intensifying systems offshore or over other regions like Jamaica. Early 2026 outlooks from Colorado State University forecast below-normal activity amid weak La Niña conditions expected to transition, with just a 32% chance of any major hurricane (Category 3+) hitting the U.S. coastline per recent models; NOAA's seasonal updates in May and June 1 start of the season will refine probabilities amid inherent forecast uncertainty.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Volume
$131,442Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus implies an 89.5% probability of no Category 5 hurricane—defined by the Saffir-Simpson scale as sustained winds exceeding 157 mph—making landfall on the U.S. mainland before 2027, driven by the event's extreme historical rarity, with only four such strikes since 1851: the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane, Camille in 1969, Andrew in 1992, and Michael in 2018. The hyperactive 2025 Atlantic season produced three Category 5 storms (Erin, Humberto, Melissa) yet saw no U.S. hurricane landfalls at all—the first such year since 2015—due to unfavorable steering patterns keeping intensifying systems offshore or over other regions like Jamaica. Early 2026 outlooks from Colorado State University forecast below-normal activity amid weak La Niña conditions expected to transition, with just a 32% chance of any major hurricane (Category 3+) hitting the U.S. coastline per recent models; NOAA's seasonal updates in May and June 1 start of the season will refine probabilities amid inherent forecast uncertainty.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti