Trader consensus prices a 60.5% chance of Yes—meaning none of the specified high-impact events occur by year-end—following a quiet first quarter-plus in 2026, with no triggers like U.S. invasion of Iran, Iranian regime collapse, or Republican Senate supermajority despite early-year escalations. The February 28–April 8 U.S.-Israel-Iran war, including Strait of Hormuz disruptions and a temporary ceasefire, fell short of resolution criteria, while ongoing U.S. naval blockade as of April 14 has deterred shipping without broader invasion; diplomatic signals from President Trump and recent Xi Jinping statements underscore de-escalation. Bitcoin holds around $74,000, Xi remains in power, and no major natural disasters reported, though November midterms and tail risks like NATO invasion loom over the horizon.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoNon succede mai niente: 2026
Non succede mai niente: 2026
Sì
$493,474 Vol.
$493,474 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
$493,474 Vol.
$493,474 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfTrader consensus prices a 60.5% chance of Yes—meaning none of the specified high-impact events occur by year-end—following a quiet first quarter-plus in 2026, with no triggers like U.S. invasion of Iran, Iranian regime collapse, or Republican Senate supermajority despite early-year escalations. The February 28–April 8 U.S.-Israel-Iran war, including Strait of Hormuz disruptions and a temporary ceasefire, fell short of resolution criteria, while ongoing U.S. naval blockade as of April 14 has deterred shipping without broader invasion; diplomatic signals from President Trump and recent Xi Jinping statements underscore de-escalation. Bitcoin holds around $74,000, Xi remains in power, and no major natural disasters reported, though November midterms and tail risks like NATO invasion loom over the horizon.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
Mercato aperto: Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Volume
$493,474Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfTrader consensus prices a 60.5% chance of Yes—meaning none of the specified high-impact events occur by year-end—following a quiet first quarter-plus in 2026, with no triggers like U.S. invasion of Iran, Iranian regime collapse, or Republican Senate supermajority despite early-year escalations. The February 28–April 8 U.S.-Israel-Iran war, including Strait of Hormuz disruptions and a temporary ceasefire, fell short of resolution criteria, while ongoing U.S. naval blockade as of April 14 has deterred shipping without broader invasion; diplomatic signals from President Trump and recent Xi Jinping statements underscore de-escalation. Bitcoin holds around $74,000, Xi remains in power, and no major natural disasters reported, though November midterms and tail risks like NATO invasion loom over the horizon.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
Volume
$493,474Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a 60.5% chance of Yes—meaning none of the specified high-impact events occur by year-end—following a quiet first quarter-plus in 2026, with no triggers like U.S. invasion of Iran, Iranian regime collapse, or Republican Senate supermajority despite early-year escalations. The February 28–April 8 U.S.-Israel-Iran war, including Strait of Hormuz disruptions and a temporary ceasefire, fell short of resolution criteria, while ongoing U.S. naval blockade as of April 14 has deterred shipping without broader invasion; diplomatic signals from President Trump and recent Xi Jinping statements underscore de-escalation. Bitcoin holds around $74,000, Xi remains in power, and no major natural disasters reported, though November midterms and tail risks like NATO invasion loom over the horizon.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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