Recent test flights through IFT-13 have validated Super Heavy booster tower catches and refined V3 Raptor engines plus heat shield tiles, yet the upper stage still relies on controlled ocean splashdowns while facing plasma intrusion and refurbishment hurdles. Regulatory approvals for land catches of the ship remain pending, and SpaceX filings highlight risks around rapid turnaround cadence and anomaly tolerance. These incremental hardware and operational gains sustain a narrow market edge for full reusability by end-2026, offset by the engineering and approval timelines still required for propellant transfer demos and repeated flights without inspection. Next regulatory rulings or a successful IFT-14 ship catch could shift consensus quickly.