Tesla's Cybercab faces significant production and cost hurdles that underpin the 83.5% market-implied probability for "No." Limited pilot output began at Giga Texas in early 2026, but Tesla's Q2 2026 shareholder letter explicitly removed targets for volume production that year, citing ongoing battery manufacturing ramps for the 4680 cells and delays building dedicated lines. Autonomous hardware and software costs, plus the need for regulatory clearance on vehicles without steering wheels or pedals for unsupervised retail use, have kept per-unit pricing well above the $30,000 threshold amid broader timeline slippage. Key upcoming catalysts include Tesla's next earnings update or Autonomy Day announcements on cost reductions and any state-level approvals for consumer sales.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoTesla venderà una Cybercab per 30.000 o meno nel 2026?
Tesla venderà una Cybercab per 30.000 o meno nel 2026?
Sì
$47,840 Vol.
$47,840 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
$47,840 Vol.
$47,840 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Tesla's Cybercab faces significant production and cost hurdles that underpin the 83.5% market-implied probability for "No." Limited pilot output began at Giga Texas in early 2026, but Tesla's Q2 2026 shareholder letter explicitly removed targets for volume production that year, citing ongoing battery manufacturing ramps for the 4680 cells and delays building dedicated lines. Autonomous hardware and software costs, plus the need for regulatory clearance on vehicles without steering wheels or pedals for unsupervised retail use, have kept per-unit pricing well above the $30,000 threshold amid broader timeline slippage. Key upcoming catalysts include Tesla's next earnings update or Autonomy Day announcements on cost reductions and any state-level approvals for consumer sales.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ET
Volume
$47,840Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Tesla's Cybercab faces significant production and cost hurdles that underpin the 83.5% market-implied probability for "No." Limited pilot output began at Giga Texas in early 2026, but Tesla's Q2 2026 shareholder letter explicitly removed targets for volume production that year, citing ongoing battery manufacturing ramps for the 4680 cells and delays building dedicated lines. Autonomous hardware and software costs, plus the need for regulatory clearance on vehicles without steering wheels or pedals for unsupervised retail use, have kept per-unit pricing well above the $30,000 threshold amid broader timeline slippage. Key upcoming catalysts include Tesla's next earnings update or Autonomy Day announcements on cost reductions and any state-level approvals for consumer sales.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$47,840Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Tesla's Cybercab faces significant production and cost hurdles that underpin the 83.5% market-implied probability for "No." Limited pilot output began at Giga Texas in early 2026, but Tesla's Q2 2026 shareholder letter explicitly removed targets for volume production that year, citing ongoing battery manufacturing ramps for the 4680 cells and delays building dedicated lines. Autonomous hardware and software costs, plus the need for regulatory clearance on vehicles without steering wheels or pedals for unsupervised retail use, have kept per-unit pricing well above the $30,000 threshold amid broader timeline slippage. Key upcoming catalysts include Tesla's next earnings update or Autonomy Day announcements on cost reductions and any state-level approvals for consumer sales.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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