Tesla's Optimus humanoid robot has missed the late July or August 2026 low-volume production start targeted on the Q1 earnings call, with the Fremont line still under installation after the Model S/X shutdown and no verified Gen 3 output or public reveal as of late August. Recent JPMorgan site visits confirm equipment setup but note zero active units, with early builds slated for internal “Optimus Academy” data collection rather than external sales. Commercial availability remains guided toward the second half of 2027, aligning with a second, higher-capacity line planned for Giga Texas. Trader sentiment has cooled sharply, reflected in sharply reduced implied probabilities for any 2026 release. The next material catalyst is Tesla’s Q3 earnings in October, which could clarify ramp progress amid competition from deployed rivals such as Figure AI and Agility Robotics.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoTesla rilascerà Optimus entro...?
Tesla rilascerà Optimus entro...?
$115,506 Vol.
31 dic 2026
31 dicembre
3%
$115,506 Vol.
31 dicembre
$19,012 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla releases a humanoid, bipedal robot (such as Optimus) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying product is a humanoid, bipedal robot intended for consumer use and newly introduced. Non-humanoid robotics, accessories, internal factory deployments, employee-only programs, and partner/enterprise pilots do not qualify.
To be considered “released,” the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the timeframe via an official Tesla consumer channel (e.g., tesla.com) with a live checkout or paid preorder/deposit. Announcements, unveilings, demos, or waitlists with “register interest” pages without payment do not suffice. Availability in any region counts if it is open to the general public.
The primary resolution source will be official statements and materials from Tesla.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla releases a humanoid, bipedal robot (such as Optimus) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying product is a humanoid, bipedal robot intended for consumer use and newly introduced. Non-humanoid robotics, accessories, internal factory deployments, employee-only programs, and partner/enterprise pilots do not qualify.
To be considered “released,” the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the timeframe via an official Tesla consumer channel (e.g., tesla.com) with a live checkout or paid preorder/deposit. Announcements, unveilings, demos, or waitlists with “register interest” pages without payment do not suffice. Availability in any region counts if it is open to the general public.
The primary resolution source will be official statements and materials from Tesla.Tesla's Optimus humanoid robot has missed the late July or August 2026 low-volume production start targeted on the Q1 earnings call, with the Fremont line still under installation after the Model S/X shutdown and no verified Gen 3 output or public reveal as of late August. Recent JPMorgan site visits confirm equipment setup but note zero active units, with early builds slated for internal “Optimus Academy” data collection rather than external sales. Commercial availability remains guided toward the second half of 2027, aligning with a second, higher-capacity line planned for Giga Texas. Trader sentiment has cooled sharply, reflected in sharply reduced implied probabilities for any 2026 release. The next material catalyst is Tesla’s Q3 earnings in October, which could clarify ramp progress amid competition from deployed rivals such as Figure AI and Agility Robotics.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla releases a humanoid, bipedal robot (such as Optimus) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying product is a humanoid, bipedal robot intended for consumer use and newly introduced. Non-humanoid robotics, accessories, internal factory deployments, employee-only programs, and partner/enterprise pilots do not qualify.
To be considered “released,” the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the timeframe via an official Tesla consumer channel (e.g., tesla.com) with a live checkout or paid preorder/deposit. Announcements, unveilings, demos, or waitlists with “register interest” pages without payment do not suffice. Availability in any region counts if it is open to the general public.
The primary resolution source will be official statements and materials from Tesla.
A qualifying product is a humanoid, bipedal robot intended for consumer use and newly introduced. Non-humanoid robotics, accessories, internal factory deployments, employee-only programs, and partner/enterprise pilots do not qualify.
To be considered “released,” the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the timeframe via an official Tesla consumer channel (e.g., tesla.com) with a live checkout or paid preorder/deposit. Announcements, unveilings, demos, or waitlists with “register interest” pages without payment do not suffice. Availability in any region counts if it is open to the general public.
The primary resolution source will be official statements and materials from Tesla.
Mercato aperto: Jan 22, 2026, 4:18 PM ET
Volume
$115,506Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Jan 22, 2026, 4:18 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
..Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla releases a humanoid, bipedal robot (such as Optimus) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying product is a humanoid, bipedal robot intended for consumer use and newly introduced. Non-humanoid robotics, accessories, internal factory deployments, employee-only programs, and partner/enterprise pilots do not qualify.
To be considered “released,” the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the timeframe via an official Tesla consumer channel (e.g., tesla.com) with a live checkout or paid preorder/deposit. Announcements, unveilings, demos, or waitlists with “register interest” pages without payment do not suffice. Availability in any region counts if it is open to the general public.
The primary resolution source will be official statements and materials from Tesla.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla releases a humanoid, bipedal robot (such as Optimus) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying product is a humanoid, bipedal robot intended for consumer use and newly introduced. Non-humanoid robotics, accessories, internal factory deployments, employee-only programs, and partner/enterprise pilots do not qualify.
To be considered “released,” the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the timeframe via an official Tesla consumer channel (e.g., tesla.com) with a live checkout or paid preorder/deposit. Announcements, unveilings, demos, or waitlists with “register interest” pages without payment do not suffice. Availability in any region counts if it is open to the general public.
The primary resolution source will be official statements and materials from Tesla.Tesla's Optimus humanoid robot has missed the late July or August 2026 low-volume production start targeted on the Q1 earnings call, with the Fremont line still under installation after the Model S/X shutdown and no verified Gen 3 output or public reveal as of late August. Recent JPMorgan site visits confirm equipment setup but note zero active units, with early builds slated for internal “Optimus Academy” data collection rather than external sales. Commercial availability remains guided toward the second half of 2027, aligning with a second, higher-capacity line planned for Giga Texas. Trader sentiment has cooled sharply, reflected in sharply reduced implied probabilities for any 2026 release. The next material catalyst is Tesla’s Q3 earnings in October, which could clarify ramp progress amid competition from deployed rivals such as Figure AI and Agility Robotics.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla releases a humanoid, bipedal robot (such as Optimus) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying product is a humanoid, bipedal robot intended for consumer use and newly introduced. Non-humanoid robotics, accessories, internal factory deployments, employee-only programs, and partner/enterprise pilots do not qualify.
To be considered “released,” the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the timeframe via an official Tesla consumer channel (e.g., tesla.com) with a live checkout or paid preorder/deposit. Announcements, unveilings, demos, or waitlists with “register interest” pages without payment do not suffice. Availability in any region counts if it is open to the general public.
The primary resolution source will be official statements and materials from Tesla.
A qualifying product is a humanoid, bipedal robot intended for consumer use and newly introduced. Non-humanoid robotics, accessories, internal factory deployments, employee-only programs, and partner/enterprise pilots do not qualify.
To be considered “released,” the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the timeframe via an official Tesla consumer channel (e.g., tesla.com) with a live checkout or paid preorder/deposit. Announcements, unveilings, demos, or waitlists with “register interest” pages without payment do not suffice. Availability in any region counts if it is open to the general public.
The primary resolution source will be official statements and materials from Tesla.
Volume
$115,506Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Jan 22, 2026, 4:18 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
..Resolver
0x65070BE91...Tesla's Optimus humanoid robot has missed the late July or August 2026 low-volume production start targeted on the Q1 earnings call, with the Fremont line still under installation after the Model S/X shutdown and no verified Gen 3 output or public reveal as of late August. Recent JPMorgan site visits confirm equipment setup but note zero active units, with early builds slated for internal “Optimus Academy” data collection rather than external sales. Commercial availability remains guided toward the second half of 2027, aligning with a second, higher-capacity line planned for Giga Texas. Trader sentiment has cooled sharply, reflected in sharply reduced implied probabilities for any 2026 release. The next material catalyst is Tesla’s Q3 earnings in October, which could clarify ramp progress amid competition from deployed rivals such as Figure AI and Agility Robotics.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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