Apple’s long-standing pattern of annual iPhone launches underpins the 96.3% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 release in 2026. The company has introduced a new flagship model each September for more than a decade, with the iPhone 17 expected in 2025 setting up the logical successor. Traders see little reason to doubt continuity given Apple’s supply-chain discipline and historical adherence to this cadence. Still, realistic risks remain: a major hardware delay from advanced chip or display production issues, supply-chain disruptions, or an unexpected shift in naming or product strategy could push the timeline. Regulatory scrutiny on App Store practices or export controls has not historically altered hardware release schedules, but any last-minute certification hurdles could matter near launch.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoApple rilascerà iPhone 18 nel 2026?
Apple rilascerà iPhone 18 nel 2026?
$112,633 Vol.
$112,633 Vol.
31 dic 2026
$112,633 Vol.
$112,633 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s long-standing pattern of annual iPhone launches underpins the 96.3% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 release in 2026. The company has introduced a new flagship model each September for more than a decade, with the iPhone 17 expected in 2025 setting up the logical successor. Traders see little reason to doubt continuity given Apple’s supply-chain discipline and historical adherence to this cadence. Still, realistic risks remain: a major hardware delay from advanced chip or display production issues, supply-chain disruptions, or an unexpected shift in naming or product strategy could push the timeline. Regulatory scrutiny on App Store practices or export controls has not historically altered hardware release schedules, but any last-minute certification hurdles could matter near launch.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
Volume
$112,633Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s long-standing pattern of annual iPhone launches underpins the 96.3% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 release in 2026. The company has introduced a new flagship model each September for more than a decade, with the iPhone 17 expected in 2025 setting up the logical successor. Traders see little reason to doubt continuity given Apple’s supply-chain discipline and historical adherence to this cadence. Still, realistic risks remain: a major hardware delay from advanced chip or display production issues, supply-chain disruptions, or an unexpected shift in naming or product strategy could push the timeline. Regulatory scrutiny on App Store practices or export controls has not historically altered hardware release schedules, but any last-minute certification hurdles could matter near launch.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$112,633Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Apple’s long-standing pattern of annual iPhone launches underpins the 96.3% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 release in 2026. The company has introduced a new flagship model each September for more than a decade, with the iPhone 17 expected in 2025 setting up the logical successor. Traders see little reason to doubt continuity given Apple’s supply-chain discipline and historical adherence to this cadence. Still, realistic risks remain: a major hardware delay from advanced chip or display production issues, supply-chain disruptions, or an unexpected shift in naming or product strategy could push the timeline. Regulatory scrutiny on App Store practices or export controls has not historically altered hardware release schedules, but any last-minute certification hurdles could matter near launch.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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