Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2026, at 63.5% implied probability, driven by recent reports of an internal rift where CFO Sarah Friar flagged CEO Sam Altman's aggressive Q4 timeline as overly risky amid massive projected compute spending—$121 billion by 2028—and Microsoft's 75% profit-sharing structure that could deter public investors. Despite closing a record $122 billion funding round at an $852 billion valuation in late March, including $3 billion from retail, the lack of an S-1 filing and ongoing profitability challenges have fueled skepticism, positioning high-valuation outcomes like 1.5T+ (9.5%) far behind. Traders eye H2 regulatory filings or earnings previews as potential catalysts amid AI sector's competitive pressures.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCapitalizzazione di mercato di chiusura IPO OpenAI
Capitalizzazione di mercato di chiusura IPO OpenAI
Nessuna IPO entro il 31 dicembre 2026 63%
1,5T+ 9.5%
1,25 T–1,5 T 6.8%
750 miliardi–1 trilione 5.6%
$1,578,638 Vol.
$1,578,638 Vol.
30 giu 2026
<500Mld
5%
500–750 miliardi
3%
750 miliardi–1 trilione
6%
1T–1,25T
4%
1,25 T–1,5 T
7%
1,5T+
10%
Nessuna IPO entro il 31 dicembre 2026
63%
Nessuna IPO entro il 31 dicembre 2026 63%
1,5T+ 9.5%
1,25 T–1,5 T 6.8%
750 miliardi–1 trilione 5.6%
$1,578,638 Vol.
$1,578,638 Vol.
30 giu 2026
<500Mld
$259,792 Vol.
5%
500–750 miliardi
$141,523 Vol.
3%
750 miliardi–1 trilione
$134,905 Vol.
6%
1T–1,25T
$175,470 Vol.
4%
1,25 T–1,5 T
$489,719 Vol.
7%
1,5T+
$94,357 Vol.
10%
Nessuna IPO entro il 31 dicembre 2026
$283,248 Vol.
63%
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2026, at 63.5% implied probability, driven by recent reports of an internal rift where CFO Sarah Friar flagged CEO Sam Altman's aggressive Q4 timeline as overly risky amid massive projected compute spending—$121 billion by 2028—and Microsoft's 75% profit-sharing structure that could deter public investors. Despite closing a record $122 billion funding round at an $852 billion valuation in late March, including $3 billion from retail, the lack of an S-1 filing and ongoing profitability challenges have fueled skepticism, positioning high-valuation outcomes like 1.5T+ (9.5%) far behind. Traders eye H2 regulatory filings or earnings previews as potential catalysts amid AI sector's competitive pressures.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Mercato aperto: Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ET
Volume
$1,578,638Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2026, at 63.5% implied probability, driven by recent reports of an internal rift where CFO Sarah Friar flagged CEO Sam Altman's aggressive Q4 timeline as overly risky amid massive projected compute spending—$121 billion by 2028—and Microsoft's 75% profit-sharing structure that could deter public investors. Despite closing a record $122 billion funding round at an $852 billion valuation in late March, including $3 billion from retail, the lack of an S-1 filing and ongoing profitability challenges have fueled skepticism, positioning high-valuation outcomes like 1.5T+ (9.5%) far behind. Traders eye H2 regulatory filings or earnings previews as potential catalysts amid AI sector's competitive pressures.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volume
$1,578,638Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2026, at 63.5% implied probability, driven by recent reports of an internal rift where CFO Sarah Friar flagged CEO Sam Altman's aggressive Q4 timeline as overly risky amid massive projected compute spending—$121 billion by 2028—and Microsoft's 75% profit-sharing structure that could deter public investors. Despite closing a record $122 billion funding round at an $852 billion valuation in late March, including $3 billion from retail, the lack of an S-1 filing and ongoing profitability challenges have fueled skepticism, positioning high-valuation outcomes like 1.5T+ (9.5%) far behind. Traders eye H2 regulatory filings or earnings previews as potential catalysts amid AI sector's competitive pressures.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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