Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects overwhelming skepticism at 92.5% implied probability against Elon Musk securing full custody of his 17-month-old son Romulus with influencer Ashley St. Clair, driven by her established role as primary caregiver and court filings alleging Musk's minimal involvement—he skipped the birth and visited just a few times initially. Musk's January 2026 public announcement to file, citing concerns over St. Clair's softened stance on transgender issues post-apology, has yielded no confirmed ruling after three months, echoing his shared custody outcome with Grimes amid venue disputes between New York and Texas courts. Recent interviews reveal St. Clair decrying MAGA as a "cult" while acknowledging Musk's early allure, underscoring relational tensions, though family courts prioritize child stability over speculative parental views; an upset would require proof of her unfitness or swift judicial intervention before any hearing.