Trader consensus prices an arrest of Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.) by May 31 at just 9%, reflecting the absence of formal charges despite cascading scandals. In the past week, multiple women accused him of sexual misconduct dating to 2018, prompting his abrupt resignation from Congress on April 14, suspension of his California governor campaign, and nascent probes by the House Ethics Committee, Manhattan District Attorney, and Los Angeles County Sheriff's Department—all of which Swalwell denies as false. Earlier in March, FBI Director Kash Patel ordered review of decade-old files on his ties to suspected Chinese operative Christine Fang, but no indictment followed. With investigations in preliminary stages and typical procedural delays for such allegations, traders see slim odds of swift arrest amid evidentiary hurdles and legal timelines.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoNUOVO
NUOVO
31 mag 2026
NUOVO
NUOVO
31 mag 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Eric Swalwell is arrested or detained by law enforcement between the time of market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices an arrest of Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.) by May 31 at just 9%, reflecting the absence of formal charges despite cascading scandals. In the past week, multiple women accused him of sexual misconduct dating to 2018, prompting his abrupt resignation from Congress on April 14, suspension of his California governor campaign, and nascent probes by the House Ethics Committee, Manhattan District Attorney, and Los Angeles County Sheriff's Department—all of which Swalwell denies as false. Earlier in March, FBI Director Kash Patel ordered review of decade-old files on his ties to suspected Chinese operative Christine Fang, but no indictment followed. With investigations in preliminary stages and typical procedural delays for such allegations, traders see slim odds of swift arrest amid evidentiary hurdles and legal timelines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Eric Swalwell is arrested or detained by law enforcement between the time of market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Apr 14, 2026, 2:57 PM ET
Volume
$9,580Data di fine
31 mag 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 14, 2026, 2:57 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Eric Swalwell is arrested or detained by law enforcement between the time of market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices an arrest of Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.) by May 31 at just 9%, reflecting the absence of formal charges despite cascading scandals. In the past week, multiple women accused him of sexual misconduct dating to 2018, prompting his abrupt resignation from Congress on April 14, suspension of his California governor campaign, and nascent probes by the House Ethics Committee, Manhattan District Attorney, and Los Angeles County Sheriff's Department—all of which Swalwell denies as false. Earlier in March, FBI Director Kash Patel ordered review of decade-old files on his ties to suspected Chinese operative Christine Fang, but no indictment followed. With investigations in preliminary stages and typical procedural delays for such allegations, traders see slim odds of swift arrest amid evidentiary hurdles and legal timelines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Eric Swalwell is arrested or detained by law enforcement between the time of market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$9,580Data di fine
31 mag 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 14, 2026, 2:57 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices an arrest of Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.) by May 31 at just 9%, reflecting the absence of formal charges despite cascading scandals. In the past week, multiple women accused him of sexual misconduct dating to 2018, prompting his abrupt resignation from Congress on April 14, suspension of his California governor campaign, and nascent probes by the House Ethics Committee, Manhattan District Attorney, and Los Angeles County Sheriff's Department—all of which Swalwell denies as false. Earlier in March, FBI Director Kash Patel ordered review of decade-old files on his ties to suspected Chinese operative Christine Fang, but no indictment followed. With investigations in preliminary stages and typical procedural delays for such allegations, traders see slim odds of swift arrest amid evidentiary hurdles and legal timelines.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti