Trader consensus on Polymarket clusters around 240-299 posts for Elon Musk's X activity from April 17-24, with 260-279 leading at 16.5% implied probability, mirroring the prior week's 270 posts (39 daily average through April 16). This tight race among top bins reflects his fluctuating output tied to viral cultural flashpoints, like ongoing Starlink-South Africa debates over B-BBEE laws and his sharp retorts labeling critics "racist scumbags," which spiked recent engagement. Absent confirmed catalysts such as Tesla earnings or SpaceX launches, differentiation hinges on news cycle intensity—sustained political sparring could push toward 280+, while lulls favor sub-260—highlighting prediction markets' wisdom in pricing daily variance for this social media powerhouse.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato260-279 17%
240-259 15%
280-299 15%
300-319 13%
$923,237 Vol.
$923,237 Vol.
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
<1%
140-159
<1%
160-179
1%
180-199
3%
200-219
6%
220-239
10%
240-259
15%
260-279
17%
280-299
15%
300-319
13%
320-339
9%
340-359
6%
360-379
4%
380-399
3%
400-419
1%
420-439
1%
440-459
1%
460-479
1%
480-499
<1%
500-519
<1%
520-539
<1%
540-559
<1%
560-579
<1%
580+
<1%
260-279 17%
240-259 15%
280-299 15%
300-319 13%
$923,237 Vol.
$923,237 Vol.
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
<1%
140-159
<1%
160-179
1%
180-199
3%
200-219
6%
220-239
10%
240-259
15%
260-279
17%
280-299
15%
300-319
13%
320-339
9%
340-359
6%
360-379
4%
380-399
3%
400-419
1%
420-439
1%
440-459
1%
460-479
1%
480-499
<1%
500-519
<1%
520-539
<1%
540-559
<1%
560-579
<1%
580+
<1%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Mercato aperto: Apr 14, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Fonte di risoluzione
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Fonte di risoluzione
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket clusters around 240-299 posts for Elon Musk's X activity from April 17-24, with 260-279 leading at 16.5% implied probability, mirroring the prior week's 270 posts (39 daily average through April 16). This tight race among top bins reflects his fluctuating output tied to viral cultural flashpoints, like ongoing Starlink-South Africa debates over B-BBEE laws and his sharp retorts labeling critics "racist scumbags," which spiked recent engagement. Absent confirmed catalysts such as Tesla earnings or SpaceX launches, differentiation hinges on news cycle intensity—sustained political sparring could push toward 280+, while lulls favor sub-260—highlighting prediction markets' wisdom in pricing daily variance for this social media powerhouse.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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