Industry tracking from Boxoffice Pro and others projects The Super Mario Galaxy Movie's third-weekend domestic box office at $35-45 million—a roughly 50% drop from its $69 million second-weekend haul—cementing trader consensus at 95.5% implied probability for under $44 million. This reflects the film's front-loaded performance after a massive $131.7 million three-day opening and $190.8 million five-day Easter debut, with typical post-holiday family audience erosion amid competition from holdovers like Project Hail Mary. Strong critical reception (audience scores in the high 90s on aggregators) and Nintendo brand loyalty support the floor, but shorter legs than the 2023 Super Mario Bros. Movie's third-frame hold limit upside. An upset to $44 million-plus would require exceptional word-of-mouth driving repeat viewings and walkups before next weekend's Michael biopic debut.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato"The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 3° Weekend Box Office
"The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 3° Weekend Box Office
<44 milioni 95.5%
44-48 milioni 3.6%
>52 mln <1%
48-52 milioni <1%
$38,436 Vol.
$38,436 Vol.
20 apr 2026
<44 milioni
96%
44-48 milioni
4%
48-52 milioni
<1%
>52 mln
1%
<44 milioni 95.5%
44-48 milioni 3.6%
>52 mln <1%
48-52 milioni <1%
$38,436 Vol.
$38,436 Vol.
20 apr 2026
<44 milioni
$3,397 Vol.
96%
44-48 milioni
$5,091 Vol.
4%
48-52 milioni
$8,075 Vol.
<1%
>52 mln
$21,874 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (April 17 - April 19) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Industry tracking from Boxoffice Pro and others projects The Super Mario Galaxy Movie's third-weekend domestic box office at $35-45 million—a roughly 50% drop from its $69 million second-weekend haul—cementing trader consensus at 95.5% implied probability for under $44 million. This reflects the film's front-loaded performance after a massive $131.7 million three-day opening and $190.8 million five-day Easter debut, with typical post-holiday family audience erosion amid competition from holdovers like Project Hail Mary. Strong critical reception (audience scores in the high 90s on aggregators) and Nintendo brand loyalty support the floor, but shorter legs than the 2023 Super Mario Bros. Movie's third-frame hold limit upside. An upset to $44 million-plus would require exceptional word-of-mouth driving repeat viewings and walkups before next weekend's Michael biopic debut.
This market will resolve according to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (April 17 - April 19) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Mercato aperto: Apr 13, 2026, 5:54 PM ET
Volume
$38,436Data di fine
20 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 13, 2026, 5:54 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.the-numbers.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (April 17 - April 19) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Industry tracking from Boxoffice Pro and others projects The Super Mario Galaxy Movie's third-weekend domestic box office at $35-45 million—a roughly 50% drop from its $69 million second-weekend haul—cementing trader consensus at 95.5% implied probability for under $44 million. This reflects the film's front-loaded performance after a massive $131.7 million three-day opening and $190.8 million five-day Easter debut, with typical post-holiday family audience erosion amid competition from holdovers like Project Hail Mary. Strong critical reception (audience scores in the high 90s on aggregators) and Nintendo brand loyalty support the floor, but shorter legs than the 2023 Super Mario Bros. Movie's third-frame hold limit upside. An upset to $44 million-plus would require exceptional word-of-mouth driving repeat viewings and walkups before next weekend's Michael biopic debut.
This market will resolve according to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (April 17 - April 19) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$38,436Data di fine
20 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 13, 2026, 5:54 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.the-numbers.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Industry tracking from Boxoffice Pro and others projects The Super Mario Galaxy Movie's third-weekend domestic box office at $35-45 million—a roughly 50% drop from its $69 million second-weekend haul—cementing trader consensus at 95.5% implied probability for under $44 million. This reflects the film's front-loaded performance after a massive $131.7 million three-day opening and $190.8 million five-day Easter debut, with typical post-holiday family audience erosion amid competition from holdovers like Project Hail Mary. Strong critical reception (audience scores in the high 90s on aggregators) and Nintendo brand loyalty support the floor, but shorter legs than the 2023 Super Mario Bros. Movie's third-frame hold limit upside. An upset to $44 million-plus would require exceptional word-of-mouth driving repeat viewings and walkups before next weekend's Michael biopic debut.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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