**Strong second-weekend hold and typical post-blockbuster drop patterns position the sub-$66 million bin as the market leader at 60% implied probability.** After a record $360 million domestic opening and $144 million second weekend, "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" has already surpassed $650 million domestically with minimal competition. Industry tracking from Deadline and box-office analysts forecasts a 50-60% decline for the Aug. 14-16 frame, placing estimates in the $57-72 million range. Trader consensus reflects this historical precedent for MCU tentpoles after outsized debuts, alongside solid critical reception and audience scores that support steady but decelerating legs. The narrow spread on the 66-68 million outcome (29.5%) captures upside from any stronger word-of-mouth or holiday adjacency, while higher bins remain negligible. The market will resolve with Monday’s actuals.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 3° Weekend Box Office (Lower Strikes)
"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 3° Weekend Box Office (Lower Strikes)
<66m 66%
66-68m 24%
68-70m 10%
72 milioni+ <1%
NUOVO
NUOVO
16 ago 2026
<66m
66%
66-68m
24%
68-70m
10%
70-72m
<1%
72 milioni+
<1%
<66m 66%
66-68m 24%
68-70m 10%
72 milioni+ <1%
NUOVO
NUOVO
16 ago 2026
<66m
$1,821 Vol.
66%
66-68m
$1,273 Vol.
24%
68-70m
$1,291 Vol.
10%
70-72m
$649 Vol.
<1%
72 milioni+
$793 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its third weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (August 14 - August 16) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.**Strong second-weekend hold and typical post-blockbuster drop patterns position the sub-$66 million bin as the market leader at 60% implied probability.** After a record $360 million domestic opening and $144 million second weekend, "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" has already surpassed $650 million domestically with minimal competition. Industry tracking from Deadline and box-office analysts forecasts a 50-60% decline for the Aug. 14-16 frame, placing estimates in the $57-72 million range. Trader consensus reflects this historical precedent for MCU tentpoles after outsized debuts, alongside solid critical reception and audience scores that support steady but decelerating legs. The narrow spread on the 66-68 million outcome (29.5%) captures upside from any stronger word-of-mouth or holiday adjacency, while higher bins remain negligible. The market will resolve with Monday’s actuals.
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its third weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (August 14 - August 16) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Mercato aperto: Aug 13, 2026, 7:10 PM ET
Volume
$5,828Data di fine
16 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 13, 2026, 7:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its third weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (August 14 - August 16) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.**Strong second-weekend hold and typical post-blockbuster drop patterns position the sub-$66 million bin as the market leader at 60% implied probability.** After a record $360 million domestic opening and $144 million second weekend, "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" has already surpassed $650 million domestically with minimal competition. Industry tracking from Deadline and box-office analysts forecasts a 50-60% decline for the Aug. 14-16 frame, placing estimates in the $57-72 million range. Trader consensus reflects this historical precedent for MCU tentpoles after outsized debuts, alongside solid critical reception and audience scores that support steady but decelerating legs. The narrow spread on the 66-68 million outcome (29.5%) captures upside from any stronger word-of-mouth or holiday adjacency, while higher bins remain negligible. The market will resolve with Monday’s actuals.
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its third weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (August 14 - August 16) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$5,828Data di fine
16 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 13, 2026, 7:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Strong second-weekend hold and typical post-blockbuster drop patterns position the sub-$66 million bin as the market leader at 60% implied probability.** After a record $360 million domestic opening and $144 million second weekend, "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" has already surpassed $650 million domestically with minimal competition. Industry tracking from Deadline and box-office analysts forecasts a 50-60% decline for the Aug. 14-16 frame, placing estimates in the $57-72 million range. Trader consensus reflects this historical precedent for MCU tentpoles after outsized debuts, alongside solid critical reception and audience scores that support steady but decelerating legs. The narrow spread on the 66-68 million outcome (29.5%) captures upside from any stronger word-of-mouth or holiday adjacency, while higher bins remain negligible. The market will resolve with Monday’s actuals.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCorrelati
L'incasso del terzo weekend di "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" sarà inferiore a 72 milioni?
98%
Sì
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be less than 900m by August 31?
84%
L'incasso totale nazionale di Spider-Man: Brand New Day sarà compreso tra 800 e 900 milioni entro il 31 agosto?
86%
Sì
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