**Traders are pricing 14°C as the most likely daily maximum for Wellington on July 5, reflecting short-term model consensus for a milder mid-winter day amid near-average seasonal conditions.** July climatology for the region centers on highs of 11–13°C, with NIWA’s May–July outlook assigning roughly equal chances to near-average or below-average temperatures. Recent MetService and Met Office guidance points to daytime peaks reaching 13–14°C under northerly flow, consistent with the market’s 45.5% implied probability for 14°C and secondary support for 15°C. Key variables include the strength and persistence of northerly winds versus any cooler easterly shift, plus cloud cover that could limit daytime warming. Updated official forecasts and MetService briefings in the next 24–48 hours will provide the clearest signals ahead of resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più alta a Wellington il 5 luglio?
La temperatura più alta a Wellington il 5 luglio?
14°C 100.0%
9°C or below <1%
10°C <1%
11°C <1%
$87,228 Vol.
$87,228 Vol.
5 lug 2026
9°C or below
No
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
Yes
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C or higher
No
14°C 100.0%
9°C or below <1%
10°C <1%
11°C <1%
$87,228 Vol.
$87,228 Vol.
5 lug 2026
9°C or below
$5,465 Vol.
No
10°C
$4,130 Vol.
No
11°C
$2,729 Vol.
No
12°C
$9,004 Vol.
No
13°C
$18,822 Vol.
No
14°C
$20,220 Vol.
Yes
15°C
$13,802 Vol.
No
16°C
$5,655 Vol.
No
17°C
$2,644 Vol.
No
18°C
$2,979 Vol.
No
19°C or higher
$1,779 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Traders are pricing 14°C as the most likely daily maximum for Wellington on July 5, reflecting short-term model consensus for a milder mid-winter day amid near-average seasonal conditions.** July climatology for the region centers on highs of 11–13°C, with NIWA’s May–July outlook assigning roughly equal chances to near-average or below-average temperatures. Recent MetService and Met Office guidance points to daytime peaks reaching 13–14°C under northerly flow, consistent with the market’s 45.5% implied probability for 14°C and secondary support for 15°C. Key variables include the strength and persistence of northerly winds versus any cooler easterly shift, plus cloud cover that could limit daytime warming. Updated official forecasts and MetService briefings in the next 24–48 hours will provide the clearest signals ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Jul 3, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volume
$87,228Data di fine
5 lug 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 3, 2026, 12:02 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Traders are pricing 14°C as the most likely daily maximum for Wellington on July 5, reflecting short-term model consensus for a milder mid-winter day amid near-average seasonal conditions.** July climatology for the region centers on highs of 11–13°C, with NIWA’s May–July outlook assigning roughly equal chances to near-average or below-average temperatures. Recent MetService and Met Office guidance points to daytime peaks reaching 13–14°C under northerly flow, consistent with the market’s 45.5% implied probability for 14°C and secondary support for 15°C. Key variables include the strength and persistence of northerly winds versus any cooler easterly shift, plus cloud cover that could limit daytime warming. Updated official forecasts and MetService briefings in the next 24–48 hours will provide the clearest signals ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$87,228Data di fine
5 lug 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 3, 2026, 12:02 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
**Traders are pricing 14°C as the most likely daily maximum for Wellington on July 5, reflecting short-term model consensus for a milder mid-winter day amid near-average seasonal conditions.** July climatology for the region centers on highs of 11–13°C, with NIWA’s May–July outlook assigning roughly equal chances to near-average or below-average temperatures. Recent MetService and Met Office guidance points to daytime peaks reaching 13–14°C under northerly flow, consistent with the market’s 45.5% implied probability for 14°C and secondary support for 15°C. Key variables include the strength and persistence of northerly winds versus any cooler easterly shift, plus cloud cover that could limit daytime warming. Updated official forecasts and MetService briefings in the next 24–48 hours will provide the clearest signals ahead of resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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