Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a near-certain 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 29°C in Wuhan on May 12, driven by official observational data from the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport station—the market's resolution source via Wunderground—confirming an afternoon peak of 29°C before temperatures declined with sunset around 19:00 local time. This positioning reflects real-time METAR reports and China Meteorological Administration updates showing sustained readings at or below 29°C amid partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds, which limited solar heating despite an earlier subtropical high-pressure ridge suggesting potential for 30-31°C. Historical May highs average 27-28°C, providing climatological context for this outcome. Realistic challenges include a rare data revision from late-night quality checks revealing a higher unlogged peak, though finalization typically locks in observations by midnight. Upcoming Wunderground history update will confirm resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoHighest temperature in Wuhan on May 12?
Highest temperature in Wuhan on May 12?
29°C 100.0%
25°C or below <1%
26°C <1%
27°C <1%
$79,627 Vol.
$79,627 Vol.
12 mag 2026
25°C or below
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
Yes
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C or higher
No
29°C 100.0%
25°C or below <1%
26°C <1%
27°C <1%
$79,627 Vol.
$79,627 Vol.
12 mag 2026
25°C or below
$6,691 Vol.
No
26°C
$7,162 Vol.
No
27°C
$2,854 Vol.
No
28°C
$10,094 Vol.
No
29°C
$25,676 Vol.
Yes
30°C
$6,390 Vol.
No
31°C
$4,910 Vol.
No
32°C
$5,165 Vol.
No
33°C
$5,519 Vol.
No
34°C
$2,175 Vol.
No
35°C or higher
$2,990 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a near-certain 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 29°C in Wuhan on May 12, driven by official observational data from the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport station—the market's resolution source via Wunderground—confirming an afternoon peak of 29°C before temperatures declined with sunset around 19:00 local time. This positioning reflects real-time METAR reports and China Meteorological Administration updates showing sustained readings at or below 29°C amid partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds, which limited solar heating despite an earlier subtropical high-pressure ridge suggesting potential for 30-31°C. Historical May highs average 27-28°C, providing climatological context for this outcome. Realistic challenges include a rare data revision from late-night quality checks revealing a higher unlogged peak, though finalization typically locks in observations by midnight. Upcoming Wunderground history update will confirm resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: May 10, 2026, 12:20 AM ET
Volume
$79,627Data di fine
12 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 10, 2026, 12:20 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHHResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a near-certain 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 29°C in Wuhan on May 12, driven by official observational data from the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport station—the market's resolution source via Wunderground—confirming an afternoon peak of 29°C before temperatures declined with sunset around 19:00 local time. This positioning reflects real-time METAR reports and China Meteorological Administration updates showing sustained readings at or below 29°C amid partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds, which limited solar heating despite an earlier subtropical high-pressure ridge suggesting potential for 30-31°C. Historical May highs average 27-28°C, providing climatological context for this outcome. Realistic challenges include a rare data revision from late-night quality checks revealing a higher unlogged peak, though finalization typically locks in observations by midnight. Upcoming Wunderground history update will confirm resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$79,627Data di fine
12 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 10, 2026, 12:20 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHHResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a near-certain 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 29°C in Wuhan on May 12, driven by official observational data from the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport station—the market's resolution source via Wunderground—confirming an afternoon peak of 29°C before temperatures declined with sunset around 19:00 local time. This positioning reflects real-time METAR reports and China Meteorological Administration updates showing sustained readings at or below 29°C amid partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds, which limited solar heating despite an earlier subtropical high-pressure ridge suggesting potential for 30-31°C. Historical May highs average 27-28°C, providing climatological context for this outcome. Realistic challenges include a rare data revision from late-night quality checks revealing a higher unlogged peak, though finalization typically locks in observations by midnight. Upcoming Wunderground history update will confirm resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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