**Recent weather model consensus for Shanghai points to a daily minimum temperature near 22–24°C on July 2, 2026, driven by the transition out of the East Asian monsoon/plum rain period and lingering cloud cover that limits nighttime radiative cooling.** Typical early-July climatology features overnight lows averaging 24–26°C under humid subtropical conditions, with high humidity (often >75%) and frequent light rain or drizzle moderating temperature swings. Current extended-range guidance from global models shows a modest dip in minimums due to increased cloudiness and possible scattered showers on July 1–2, keeping the lowest reading from climbing above 25°C while also preventing a sharper drop below 20°C. This setup explains the strong market weighting toward 22°C (50% implied probability) alongside elevated odds for 23°C and 24°C, while lower-probability tails (19°C or below) reflect historical variability during the season’s transition. Updated forecast runs over the next 24–48 hours, particularly from the China Meteorological Administration and ensemble guidance, will be the key catalyst for any shifts in these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più bassa a Shanghai il 2 luglio?
La temperatura più bassa a Shanghai il 2 luglio?
24°C 100.0%
17°C o inferiore <1%
18°C <1%
19°C <1%
$41,400 Vol.
$41,400 Vol.
2 lug 2026
17°C o inferiore
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
Sì
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C o superiore
No
24°C 100.0%
17°C o inferiore <1%
18°C <1%
19°C <1%
$41,400 Vol.
$41,400 Vol.
2 lug 2026
17°C o inferiore
$2,535 Vol.
No
18°C
$2,147 Vol.
No
19°C
$1,477 Vol.
No
20°C
$1,115 Vol.
No
21°C
$1,206 Vol.
No
22°C
$7,601 Vol.
No
23°C
$2,835 Vol.
No
24°C
$12,813 Vol.
Sì
25°C
$3,907 Vol.
No
26°C
$2,373 Vol.
No
27°C o superiore
$3,392 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent weather model consensus for Shanghai points to a daily minimum temperature near 22–24°C on July 2, 2026, driven by the transition out of the East Asian monsoon/plum rain period and lingering cloud cover that limits nighttime radiative cooling.**
Typical early-July climatology features overnight lows averaging 24–26°C under humid subtropical conditions, with high humidity (often >75%) and frequent light rain or drizzle moderating temperature swings. Current extended-range guidance from global models shows a modest dip in minimums due to increased cloudiness and possible scattered showers on July 1–2, keeping the lowest reading from climbing above 25°C while also preventing a sharper drop below 20°C.
This setup explains the strong market weighting toward 22°C (50% implied probability) alongside elevated odds for 23°C and 24°C, while lower-probability tails (19°C or below) reflect historical variability during the season’s transition. Updated forecast runs over the next 24–48 hours, particularly from the China Meteorological Administration and ensemble guidance, will be the key catalyst for any shifts in these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Jun 30, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$41,400Data di fine
2 lug 2026Mercato aperto
Jun 30, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent weather model consensus for Shanghai points to a daily minimum temperature near 22–24°C on July 2, 2026, driven by the transition out of the East Asian monsoon/plum rain period and lingering cloud cover that limits nighttime radiative cooling.**
Typical early-July climatology features overnight lows averaging 24–26°C under humid subtropical conditions, with high humidity (often >75%) and frequent light rain or drizzle moderating temperature swings. Current extended-range guidance from global models shows a modest dip in minimums due to increased cloudiness and possible scattered showers on July 1–2, keeping the lowest reading from climbing above 25°C while also preventing a sharper drop below 20°C.
This setup explains the strong market weighting toward 22°C (50% implied probability) alongside elevated odds for 23°C and 24°C, while lower-probability tails (19°C or below) reflect historical variability during the season’s transition. Updated forecast runs over the next 24–48 hours, particularly from the China Meteorological Administration and ensemble guidance, will be the key catalyst for any shifts in these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$41,400Data di fine
2 lug 2026Mercato aperto
Jun 30, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
**Recent weather model consensus for Shanghai points to a daily minimum temperature near 22–24°C on July 2, 2026, driven by the transition out of the East Asian monsoon/plum rain period and lingering cloud cover that limits nighttime radiative cooling.** Typical early-July climatology features overnight lows averaging 24–26°C under humid subtropical conditions, with high humidity (often >75%) and frequent light rain or drizzle moderating temperature swings. Current extended-range guidance from global models shows a modest dip in minimums due to increased cloudiness and possible scattered showers on July 1–2, keeping the lowest reading from climbing above 25°C while also preventing a sharper drop below 20°C. This setup explains the strong market weighting toward 22°C (50% implied probability) alongside elevated odds for 23°C and 24°C, while lower-probability tails (19°C or below) reflect historical variability during the season’s transition. Updated forecast runs over the next 24–48 hours, particularly from the China Meteorological Administration and ensemble guidance, will be the key catalyst for any shifts in these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti