Ongoing surveillance from WHO and CDC shows no novel pathogen with sustained global human-to-human transmission capable of meeting pandemic criteria as of September 2026. Regional outbreaks, including Bundibugyo Ebola in the DRC (declared a PHEIC but not a pandemic emergency) and multi-country mpox assessed at moderate global risk, remain geographically contained with limited case-fatality ratios outside affected zones. Post-COVID enhancements such as the 2025 WHO Pandemic Agreement and strengthened One Health monitoring have improved early detection, while avian influenza and other zoonotic signals have not escalated to widespread human adaptation. These conditions, alongside the historical infrequency of pandemics, underpin the market-implied 83% probability of no new pandemic before 2028.