Nicolás Maduro remains in US federal custody at Brooklyn's Metropolitan Detention Center, held in solitary confinement since his January 3, 2026, capture by American military forces in Caracas amid narcoterrorism and drug trafficking indictments. Trader consensus reflects low release probabilities due to the prosecution's advancement, including a March 26 court hearing where Judge Alvin Hellerstein rejected defense motions to dismiss charges without setting a trial date. No bail has been requested, and Venezuela proceeds under acting President Delcy Rodríguez, with diplomatic tensions elevated but no de-escalation signals. Upcoming procedural steps, such as arraignment or plea negotiations, could influence outcomes, though historical patterns for such high-profile extraditions suggest prolonged detention.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato$2,602,579 Vol.
31 gen 2026
31 dicembre
16%
$2,602,579 Vol.
31 dicembre
$207,130 Vol.
16%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Nicolás Maduro remains in US federal custody at Brooklyn's Metropolitan Detention Center, held in solitary confinement since his January 3, 2026, capture by American military forces in Caracas amid narcoterrorism and drug trafficking indictments. Trader consensus reflects low release probabilities due to the prosecution's advancement, including a March 26 court hearing where Judge Alvin Hellerstein rejected defense motions to dismiss charges without setting a trial date. No bail has been requested, and Venezuela proceeds under acting President Delcy Rodríguez, with diplomatic tensions elevated but no de-escalation signals. Upcoming procedural steps, such as arraignment or plea negotiations, could influence outcomes, though historical patterns for such high-profile extraditions suggest prolonged detention.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Jan 3, 2026, 10:24 AM ET
Volume
$2,602,579Data di fine
31 gen 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 3, 2026, 10:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Nicolás Maduro remains in US federal custody at Brooklyn's Metropolitan Detention Center, held in solitary confinement since his January 3, 2026, capture by American military forces in Caracas amid narcoterrorism and drug trafficking indictments. Trader consensus reflects low release probabilities due to the prosecution's advancement, including a March 26 court hearing where Judge Alvin Hellerstein rejected defense motions to dismiss charges without setting a trial date. No bail has been requested, and Venezuela proceeds under acting President Delcy Rodríguez, with diplomatic tensions elevated but no de-escalation signals. Upcoming procedural steps, such as arraignment or plea negotiations, could influence outcomes, though historical patterns for such high-profile extraditions suggest prolonged detention.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$2,602,579Data di fine
31 gen 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 3, 2026, 10:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Nicolás Maduro remains in US federal custody at Brooklyn's Metropolitan Detention Center, held in solitary confinement since his January 3, 2026, capture by American military forces in Caracas amid narcoterrorism and drug trafficking indictments. Trader consensus reflects low release probabilities due to the prosecution's advancement, including a March 26 court hearing where Judge Alvin Hellerstein rejected defense motions to dismiss charges without setting a trial date. No bail has been requested, and Venezuela proceeds under acting President Delcy Rodríguez, with diplomatic tensions elevated but no de-escalation signals. Upcoming procedural steps, such as arraignment or plea negotiations, could influence outcomes, though historical patterns for such high-profile extraditions suggest prolonged detention.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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