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icon for Margine di vittoria delle elezioni della Camera SD-AL
Politica·South Dakota Midterm

Margine di vittoria delle elezioni della Camera SD-AL

icon for Margine di vittoria delle elezioni della Camera SD-AL
Politica·South Dakota Midterm

Margine di vittoria delle elezioni della Camera SD-AL

Repubblicano 30-35% 37%

Repubblicano 15-20% 37%

Repubblicano 25-30% 37%

Repubblicano 20-25% 37%

Polymarket
NUOVO

Repubblicano 30-35% 37%

Repubblicano 15-20% 37%

Repubblicano 25-30% 37%

Repubblicano 20-25% 37%

Polymarket
NUOVO
icon for Repubblicano 40%+

Repubblicano 40%+

$46 Vol.

37%

icon for Repubblicano 35-40%

Repubblicano 35-40%

$36 Vol.

-

icon for Repubblicano 30-35%

Repubblicano 30-35%

$34 Vol.

37%

icon for Repubblicano 25-30%

Repubblicano 25-30%

$34 Vol.

37%

icon for Repubblicano 20-25%

Repubblicano 20-25%

$34 Vol.

37%

icon for Repubblicano 15-20%

Repubblicano 15-20%

$29 Vol.

37%

icon for Repubblicano 10-15%

Repubblicano 10-15%

$34 Vol.

23%

icon for Repubblicano 0-10%

Repubblicano 0-10%

$46 Vol.

37%

icon for Vittoria del Democratico

Vittoria del Democratico

$34 Vol.

20%

The 2026 SD-AL House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 SD-AL House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.South Dakota's at-large House contest features Republican nominee Marty Jackley facing Democrat Nikki Gronli on November 3, following Jackley's dominant June primary win and Gronli's unopposed Democratic nomination. The state's strong Republican tilt, consistent with no Democratic congressional victory since 2008 and the prior incumbent's 72 percent margin in 2024, anchors trader pricing on comfortable Republican margins in the 25-40 percent range. Limited Democratic resources, low statewide visibility for the challenger, and stable polling trends sustain the wide expected spread. Separation among margin buckets could arise from shifts in turnout among rural or independent voters, late-cycle national economic signals, or any unexpected campaign developments that alter baseline participation.

The 2026 SD-AL House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.

The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.

If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.

If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 SD-AL House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$329
Data di fine
3 nov 2026
Mercato aperto
Aug 11, 2026, 2:50 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The 2026 SD-AL House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 SD-AL House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The 2026 SD-AL House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 SD-AL House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.South Dakota's at-large House contest features Republican nominee Marty Jackley facing Democrat Nikki Gronli on November 3, following Jackley's dominant June primary win and Gronli's unopposed Democratic nomination. The state's strong Republican tilt, consistent with no Democratic congressional victory since 2008 and the prior incumbent's 72 percent margin in 2024, anchors trader pricing on comfortable Republican margins in the 25-40 percent range. Limited Democratic resources, low statewide visibility for the challenger, and stable polling trends sustain the wide expected spread. Separation among margin buckets could arise from shifts in turnout among rural or independent voters, late-cycle national economic signals, or any unexpected campaign developments that alter baseline participation.

The 2026 SD-AL House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.

The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.

If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.

If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 SD-AL House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$329
Data di fine
3 nov 2026
Mercato aperto
Aug 11, 2026, 2:50 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The 2026 SD-AL House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 SD-AL House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Correlati

icon for Il candidato del Partito Repubblicano vincerà le elezioni per la Camera ND-AL del 2026 con un margine tra il 40% e il 45%?

Il candidato del Partito Repubblicano vincerà le elezioni per la Camera ND-AL del 2026 con un margine tra il 40% e il 45%?

37%
Sì
icon for Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 AL-06 House election by 50% or more?

Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 AL-06 House election by 50% or more?

34%
icon for Il candidato del Partito Democratico vincerà le elezioni per la Camera AL-01 del 2026?

Il candidato del Partito Democratico vincerà le elezioni per la Camera AL-01 del 2026?

42%
Sì

Fai attenzione ai link esterni.

Domande frequenti

"Margine di vittoria delle elezioni della Camera SD-AL" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket con 9 possibili esiti dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni in base a ciò che credono accadrà. L'esito attualmente in testa è "Repubblicano 40%+" a 37%, seguito da "Repubblicano 30-35%" a 37%. I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale. Ad esempio, un'azione quotata a 37¢ implica che il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 37% a quell'esito. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

"Margine di vittoria delle elezioni della Camera SD-AL" è un mercato appena creato su Polymarket, lanciato il Aug 11, 2026. Come mercato nuovo, questa è la tua opportunità di essere tra i primi trader a stabilire le quote e i segnali di prezzo iniziali del mercato. Puoi anche aggiungere questa pagina ai preferiti per monitorare il volume e l'attività di trading man mano che il mercato guadagna visibilità.

Per fare trading su "Margine di vittoria delle elezioni della Camera SD-AL", esplora i 9 esiti disponibili elencati in questa pagina. Ogni esito mostra un prezzo corrente che rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Per prendere una posizione, seleziona l'esito che ritieni più probabile, scegli "Sì" per fare trading a suo favore o "No" per fare trading contro di esso, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se il tuo esito scelto è corretto alla risoluzione del mercato, le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $1 ciascuna. Se è errato, pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

L'attuale favorito per "Margine di vittoria delle elezioni della Camera SD-AL" è "Repubblicano 40%+" a 37%, il che significa che il mercato assegna una probabilità di 37% a quell'esito. L'esito successivo più vicino è "Repubblicano 30-35%" a 37%. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale man mano che i trader comprano e vendono azioni, quindi riflettono l'ultima visione collettiva di ciò che è più probabile che accada. Controlla frequentemente o aggiungi questa pagina ai preferiti per seguire come cambiano le quote man mano che emergono nuove informazioni.

Le regole di risoluzione per "Margine di vittoria delle elezioni della Camera SD-AL" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.