Polymarket traders price a 31.5% implied probability for the S&P 500 closing below $6,000 by year-end 2026, edging out the $7,000-$7,500 bin at 23%, reflecting competitive dynamics amid the index's recent surge to a record close of 7,041 on April 16. This sentiment stems from the eight-month rally off March lows, fueled by Q1 earnings growth estimates of 12.6% and the Fed's March dot plot signaling funds rate cuts to around 3% by 2027, yet tempered by sticky inflation (March CPI up 1.1% not seasonally adjusted), Middle East tensions, and elevated valuations with forward P/E near 20. Bullish broker targets cluster at 7,200-7,600 (JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs), but bears like Apollo flag 6,000-6,200 on recession risks; key swing factors include Q2 GDP data and May FOMC guidance.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCosa chiuderà l'S&P 500 (SPX) alla fine del 2026?
Cosa chiuderà l'S&P 500 (SPX) alla fine del 2026?
< $6.000 32%
$7.000-$7.500 23%
$6.500-$7.000 18%
$6.000-$6.500 15%
$19,006 Vol.
$19,006 Vol.
31 dic 2026
< $6.000
32%
$6.000-$6.500
17%
$6.500-$7.000
18%
$7.000-$7.500
23%
$7.500-$8.000
10%
>$8.000
7%
< $6.000 32%
$7.000-$7.500 23%
$6.500-$7.000 18%
$6.000-$6.500 15%
$19,006 Vol.
$19,006 Vol.
31 dic 2026
< $6.000
$11,576 Vol.
32%
$6.000-$6.500
$1,333 Vol.
17%
$6.500-$7.000
$1,869 Vol.
18%
$7.000-$7.500
$892 Vol.
23%
$7.500-$8.000
$1,570 Vol.
10%
>$8.000
$1,767 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Polymarket traders price a 31.5% implied probability for the S&P 500 closing below $6,000 by year-end 2026, edging out the $7,000-$7,500 bin at 23%, reflecting competitive dynamics amid the index's recent surge to a record close of 7,041 on April 16. This sentiment stems from the eight-month rally off March lows, fueled by Q1 earnings growth estimates of 12.6% and the Fed's March dot plot signaling funds rate cuts to around 3% by 2027, yet tempered by sticky inflation (March CPI up 1.1% not seasonally adjusted), Middle East tensions, and elevated valuations with forward P/E near 20. Bullish broker targets cluster at 7,200-7,600 (JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs), but bears like Apollo flag 6,000-6,200 on recession risks; key swing factors include Q2 GDP data and May FOMC guidance.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Mercato aperto: Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ET
Volume
$19,006Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Polymarket traders price a 31.5% implied probability for the S&P 500 closing below $6,000 by year-end 2026, edging out the $7,000-$7,500 bin at 23%, reflecting competitive dynamics amid the index's recent surge to a record close of 7,041 on April 16. This sentiment stems from the eight-month rally off March lows, fueled by Q1 earnings growth estimates of 12.6% and the Fed's March dot plot signaling funds rate cuts to around 3% by 2027, yet tempered by sticky inflation (March CPI up 1.1% not seasonally adjusted), Middle East tensions, and elevated valuations with forward P/E near 20. Bullish broker targets cluster at 7,200-7,600 (JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs), but bears like Apollo flag 6,000-6,200 on recession risks; key swing factors include Q2 GDP data and May FOMC guidance.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Volume
$19,006Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders price a 31.5% implied probability for the S&P 500 closing below $6,000 by year-end 2026, edging out the $7,000-$7,500 bin at 23%, reflecting competitive dynamics amid the index's recent surge to a record close of 7,041 on April 16. This sentiment stems from the eight-month rally off March lows, fueled by Q1 earnings growth estimates of 12.6% and the Fed's March dot plot signaling funds rate cuts to around 3% by 2027, yet tempered by sticky inflation (March CPI up 1.1% not seasonally adjusted), Middle East tensions, and elevated valuations with forward P/E near 20. Bullish broker targets cluster at 7,200-7,600 (JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs), but bears like Apollo flag 6,000-6,200 on recession risks; key swing factors include Q2 GDP data and May FOMC guidance.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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