Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 72% implied probability of Keir Starmer's YouGov "doing well" rating falling below the March 23 baseline of 21% in the next monthly release, reflecting entrenched unpopularity amid ongoing economic stagnation, high immigration levels, and multiple policy U-turns on issues like winter fuel payments and US base access for Iran strikes. Late March YouGov data showed net favourability steady at -48, with government approval dipping to -47% in April per Statista, as Labour trails Reform UK in voting intention polls and faces by-election humiliations. Mixed public response to Starmer's rift with Trump over Iran provided a brief favourability bump but failed to lift personal ratings, while looming May local elections heighten risks of further erosion.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoUp
Up
This market will resolve to "Up" if the next data point released for "all adults" who "think that Keir Starmer is doing well as Prime Minister" is higher than 21%.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the next respective data point released is lower than 21%.
This market will resolve to 50-50 if the next respective data point released is exactly 21%, or if no new data point is published by April 30, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying data point has been published.
This market will resolve solely based on the approval tracker "How well is Keir Starmer doing as Prime Minister?" by YouGov (https://yougov.com/en-gb/trackers/keir-starmer-prime-minister-approval). If the website is temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again.
Note: Only the specified source will be used for resolution, regardless of methodological changes or projections by other sources.
Mercato aperto: Mar 27, 2026, 5:10 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Up" if the next data point released for "all adults" who "think that Keir Starmer is doing well as Prime Minister" is higher than 21%.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the next respective data point released is lower than 21%.
This market will resolve to 50-50 if the next respective data point released is exactly 21%, or if no new data point is published by April 30, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying data point has been published.
This market will resolve solely based on the approval tracker "How well is Keir Starmer doing as Prime Minister?" by YouGov (https://yougov.com/en-gb/trackers/keir-starmer-prime-minister-approval). If the website is temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again.
Note: Only the specified source will be used for resolution, regardless of methodological changes or projections by other sources.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 72% implied probability of Keir Starmer's YouGov "doing well" rating falling below the March 23 baseline of 21% in the next monthly release, reflecting entrenched unpopularity amid ongoing economic stagnation, high immigration levels, and multiple policy U-turns on issues like winter fuel payments and US base access for Iran strikes. Late March YouGov data showed net favourability steady at -48, with government approval dipping to -47% in April per Statista, as Labour trails Reform UK in voting intention polls and faces by-election humiliations. Mixed public response to Starmer's rift with Trump over Iran provided a brief favourability bump but failed to lift personal ratings, while looming May local elections heighten risks of further erosion.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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