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Elezioni·Referendum

Virginia Redistricting Referendum: Margin of Victory

Market icon
Elezioni·Referendum

Virginia Redistricting Referendum: Margin of Victory

Pass 3-6% 35%

Pass 6-9% 22%

No Pass 17.8%

Pass <3% 17%

Polymarket

$10,652 Vol.

Pass 3-6% 35%

Pass 6-9% 22%

No Pass 17.8%

Pass <3% 17%

Polymarket

$10,652 Vol.

Pass 15%+

$1,225 Vol.

7%

Pass 12-15%

$471 Vol.

3%

Pass 9-12%

$1,249 Vol.

8%

Pass 6-9%

$412 Vol.

27%

Pass 3-6%

$1,221 Vol.

35%

Pass <3%

$457 Vol.

17%

No Pass

$5,616 Vol.

18%

Pending legal challenges, Virginia is scheduled to vote in a special election on April 21, 2026, over a referendum to amend the state constitution, allowing the Virginia General Assembly to redraw its congressional districts (see: https://www.elections.virginia.gov/election-law/proposed-amendment-for-april-2026-special-election/). This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum. If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum. If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”. If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”. If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”. This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).Recent polls, including a State Navigate survey showing Yes at 51% to No 45%, underscore the razor-thin trader consensus favoring a narrow passage of Virginia's redistricting referendum, with implied probabilities highest for 3-6% (34.5%) and 6-9% (25%) margins ahead of the April 21 special election. This reflects partisan divides, as Democrats push the constitutional amendment to empower the General Assembly for temporary congressional map redraws amid other states' mid-decade changes, while Republicans decry it as gerrymandering and intensify rural voter mobilization through rallies featuring Speaker Mike Johnson and heavy PAC ad spending. High early voting turnout, especially on Super Saturday, heightens uncertainty, with GOP enthusiasm potentially tipping the balance; final persuasion efforts or turnout disparities in battleground areas could widen margins or flip the outcome.

Pending legal challenges, Virginia is scheduled to vote in a special election on April 21, 2026, over a referendum to amend the state constitution, allowing the Virginia General Assembly to redraw its congressional districts (see: https://www.elections.virginia.gov/election-law/proposed-amendment-for-april-2026-special-election/).

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum.

If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.

For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.

If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.

If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.

If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”.

This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).
Volume
$10,652
Data di fine
21 apr 2026
Mercato aperto
Apr 7, 2026, 6:29 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Pending legal challenges, Virginia is scheduled to vote in a special election on April 21, 2026, over a referendum to amend the state constitution, allowing the Virginia General Assembly to redraw its congressional districts (see: https://www.elections.virginia.gov/election-law/proposed-amendment-for-april-2026-special-election/). This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum. If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum. If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”. If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”. If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”. This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).
Pending legal challenges, Virginia is scheduled to vote in a special election on April 21, 2026, over a referendum to amend the state constitution, allowing the Virginia General Assembly to redraw its congressional districts (see: https://www.elections.virginia.gov/election-law/proposed-amendment-for-april-2026-special-election/). This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum. If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum. If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”. If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”. If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”. This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).Recent polls, including a State Navigate survey showing Yes at 51% to No 45%, underscore the razor-thin trader consensus favoring a narrow passage of Virginia's redistricting referendum, with implied probabilities highest for 3-6% (34.5%) and 6-9% (25%) margins ahead of the April 21 special election. This reflects partisan divides, as Democrats push the constitutional amendment to empower the General Assembly for temporary congressional map redraws amid other states' mid-decade changes, while Republicans decry it as gerrymandering and intensify rural voter mobilization through rallies featuring Speaker Mike Johnson and heavy PAC ad spending. High early voting turnout, especially on Super Saturday, heightens uncertainty, with GOP enthusiasm potentially tipping the balance; final persuasion efforts or turnout disparities in battleground areas could widen margins or flip the outcome.

Pending legal challenges, Virginia is scheduled to vote in a special election on April 21, 2026, over a referendum to amend the state constitution, allowing the Virginia General Assembly to redraw its congressional districts (see: https://www.elections.virginia.gov/election-law/proposed-amendment-for-april-2026-special-election/).

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum.

If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.

For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.

If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.

If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”.

If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”.

This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).
Volume
$10,652
Data di fine
21 apr 2026
Mercato aperto
Apr 7, 2026, 6:29 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Pending legal challenges, Virginia is scheduled to vote in a special election on April 21, 2026, over a referendum to amend the state constitution, allowing the Virginia General Assembly to redraw its congressional districts (see: https://www.elections.virginia.gov/election-law/proposed-amendment-for-april-2026-special-election/). This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum. If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the “Yes” option and the “No” option in this referendum. Percentages of valid votes for each option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid “Yes” or “No” votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum. If the number of valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes is exactly equal, this market will resolve to “No Pass”. If the referendum vote is postponed prior to November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the referendum vote occurs and resolve based on the results of that vote. If this referendum vote is postponed after November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, for any other reason, the referendum vote does not take place by that time, this market will resolve to “No Pass”. If the referendum vote is definitively canceled, with no opportunity to be rescheduled, this market will resolve immediately to “No Pass”. This market will resolve based on the results of this referendum vote, according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official referendum results reported by the State of Virginia, specifically the Department of Elections (https://www.elections.virginia.gov/).

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"Virginia Redistricting Referendum: Margin of Victory" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket con 7 possibili esiti dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni in base a ciò che credono accadrà. L'esito attualmente in testa è "Pass 3-6%" a 35%, seguito da "Pass 6-9%" a 27%. I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale. Ad esempio, un'azione quotata a 35¢ implica che il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 35% a quell'esito. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

Ad oggi, "Virginia Redistricting Referendum: Margin of Victory" ha generato $10.7K in volume totale di trading dal lancio del mercato il Apr 7, 2026. Questo livello di attività di trading riflette un forte coinvolgimento della comunità Polymarket e contribuisce a garantire che le quote attuali siano informate da un ampio pool di partecipanti al mercato. Puoi seguire i movimenti di prezzo in tempo reale e fare trading su qualsiasi esito direttamente su questa pagina.

Per fare trading su "Virginia Redistricting Referendum: Margin of Victory", esplora i 7 esiti disponibili elencati in questa pagina. Ogni esito mostra un prezzo corrente che rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Per prendere una posizione, seleziona l'esito che ritieni più probabile, scegli "Sì" per fare trading a suo favore o "No" per fare trading contro di esso, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se il tuo esito scelto è corretto alla risoluzione del mercato, le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $1 ciascuna. Se è errato, pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

L'attuale favorito per "Virginia Redistricting Referendum: Margin of Victory" è "Pass 3-6%" a 35%, il che significa che il mercato assegna una probabilità di 35% a quell'esito. L'esito successivo più vicino è "Pass 6-9%" a 27%. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale man mano che i trader comprano e vendono azioni, quindi riflettono l'ultima visione collettiva di ciò che è più probabile che accada. Controlla frequentemente o aggiungi questa pagina ai preferiti per seguire come cambiano le quote man mano che emergono nuove informazioni.

Le regole di risoluzione per "Virginia Redistricting Referendum: Margin of Victory" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.