OpenAI's August 7 pause on Astra development, triggered by preliminary evaluations that could not rule out critical cybersecurity capabilities under its Preparedness Framework, is the main driver behind the tightly clustered 42–44% probabilities across September and October weeks. The internal model, revealed August 1 for solving long-standing math problems, now faces expanded safety testing and restricted workstreams, pushing any public release—whether as a standalone model or GPT variant—into a more uncertain window. Traders weigh OpenAI's history of accelerated timelines against the framework's explicit requirements for safeguards before broad availability, with similar internal capability races at labs like Anthropic adding competitive pressure but little clarity on resolution timing.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoIn quale settimana OpenAI rilascerà Astra?
In quale settimana OpenAI rilascerà Astra?
7–13 settembre 44%
14–20 settembre 44%
5–11 ottobre 44%
12–18 ottobre 44%
NUOVO
NUOVO
31 ago 2026
Prima del 31 agosto
43%
31 agosto–6 settembre
43%
7–13 settembre
44%
14–20 settembre
44%
21–27 settembre
43%
28 settembre–4 ottobre
43%
5–11 ottobre
44%
12–18 ottobre
44%
19–25 ottobre
44%
26 ottobre–1 novembre
43%
Non rilasciato entro il 1° novembre
44%
7–13 settembre 44%
14–20 settembre 44%
5–11 ottobre 44%
12–18 ottobre 44%
NUOVO
NUOVO
31 ago 2026
Prima del 31 agosto
$0 Vol.
43%
31 agosto–6 settembre
$0 Vol.
43%
7–13 settembre
$0 Vol.
44%
14–20 settembre
$0 Vol.
44%
21–27 settembre
$0 Vol.
43%
28 settembre–4 ottobre
$0 Vol.
43%
5–11 ottobre
$0 Vol.
44%
12–18 ottobre
$0 Vol.
44%
19–25 ottobre
$0 Vol.
44%
26 ottobre–1 novembre
$0 Vol.
43%
Non rilasciato entro il 1° novembre
$0 Vol.
44%
On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed “Astra,” describing an internal version of Astra as its “next major model.” You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/.
This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which OpenAI releases "Astra" or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, and that model is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.OpenAI's August 7 pause on Astra development, triggered by preliminary evaluations that could not rule out critical cybersecurity capabilities under its Preparedness Framework, is the main driver behind the tightly clustered 42–44% probabilities across September and October weeks. The internal model, revealed August 1 for solving long-standing math problems, now faces expanded safety testing and restricted workstreams, pushing any public release—whether as a standalone model or GPT variant—into a more uncertain window. Traders weigh OpenAI's history of accelerated timelines against the framework's explicit requirements for safeguards before broad availability, with similar internal capability races at labs like Anthropic adding competitive pressure but little clarity on resolution timing.
On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed “Astra,” describing an internal version of Astra as its “next major model.” You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/.
This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which OpenAI releases "Astra" or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, and that model is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which OpenAI releases "Astra" or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, and that model is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercato aperto: Aug 14, 2026, 4:43 PM ET
Volume
$0Data di fine
1 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 14, 2026, 4:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed “Astra,” describing an internal version of Astra as its “next major model.” You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/.
This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which OpenAI releases "Astra" or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, and that model is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.OpenAI's August 7 pause on Astra development, triggered by preliminary evaluations that could not rule out critical cybersecurity capabilities under its Preparedness Framework, is the main driver behind the tightly clustered 42–44% probabilities across September and October weeks. The internal model, revealed August 1 for solving long-standing math problems, now faces expanded safety testing and restricted workstreams, pushing any public release—whether as a standalone model or GPT variant—into a more uncertain window. Traders weigh OpenAI's history of accelerated timelines against the framework's explicit requirements for safeguards before broad availability, with similar internal capability races at labs like Anthropic adding competitive pressure but little clarity on resolution timing.
On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed “Astra,” describing an internal version of Astra as its “next major model.” You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/.
This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which OpenAI releases "Astra" or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, and that model is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which OpenAI releases "Astra" or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, and that model is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$0Data di fine
1 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 14, 2026, 4:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...OpenAI's August 7 pause on Astra development, triggered by preliminary evaluations that could not rule out critical cybersecurity capabilities under its Preparedness Framework, is the main driver behind the tightly clustered 42–44% probabilities across September and October weeks. The internal model, revealed August 1 for solving long-standing math problems, now faces expanded safety testing and restricted workstreams, pushing any public release—whether as a standalone model or GPT variant—into a more uncertain window. Traders weigh OpenAI's history of accelerated timelines against the framework's explicit requirements for safeguards before broad availability, with similar internal capability races at labs like Anthropic adding competitive pressure but little clarity on resolution timing.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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