**Recent polling for Berlin’s September 20, 2026, Abgeordnetenhaus election shows the CDU maintaining a modest but consistent edge over the AfD in direct head-to-head comparisons.** In the most recent INSA survey (August 7–13), the CDU stood at 20% while the AfD reached 17%, with the Left at 19%; earlier July polls occasionally placed the AfD narrowly ahead or tied, but aggregates and subsequent surveys have reverted to CDU leads of 1–3 points. The CDU, currently governing in a CDU–SPD coalition under new lead candidate Stefan Evers after Kai Wegner’s withdrawal amid a January power-outage controversy, benefits from its established base despite an overall decline from its 2023 result. The AfD has doubled its 2023 share to the mid-to-high teens on issues such as migration and security, yet mainstream parties maintain a cordon sanitaire excluding it from coalitions. With four parties clustered between 16% and 21% and no two-party majority in sight, the narrow but persistent CDU advantage in late-summer surveys underpins the 69% implied probability that the CDU will finish ahead of the AfD on election night.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日CDU
68% 確率
新規
新規
2026/09/20
CDU
68% 確率
新規
新規
2026/09/20
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “CDU” if CDU wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than AfD in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “AfD” if AfD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than CDU in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both CDU and AfD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).**Recent polling for Berlin’s September 20, 2026, Abgeordnetenhaus election shows the CDU maintaining a modest but consistent edge over the AfD in direct head-to-head comparisons.** In the most recent INSA survey (August 7–13), the CDU stood at 20% while the AfD reached 17%, with the Left at 19%; earlier July polls occasionally placed the AfD narrowly ahead or tied, but aggregates and subsequent surveys have reverted to CDU leads of 1–3 points.
The CDU, currently governing in a CDU–SPD coalition under new lead candidate Stefan Evers after Kai Wegner’s withdrawal amid a January power-outage controversy, benefits from its established base despite an overall decline from its 2023 result. The AfD has doubled its 2023 share to the mid-to-high teens on issues such as migration and security, yet mainstream parties maintain a cordon sanitaire excluding it from coalitions.
With four parties clustered between 16% and 21% and no two-party majority in sight, the narrow but persistent CDU advantage in late-summer surveys underpins the 69% implied probability that the CDU will finish ahead of the AfD on election night.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “CDU” if CDU wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than AfD in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “AfD” if AfD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than CDU in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both CDU and AfD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve to “CDU” if CDU wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than AfD in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “AfD” if AfD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than CDU in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both CDU and AfD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
マーケット開始日： Aug 20, 2026, 2:16 PM ET
音量
$2,694終了日
2026/09/20マーケット開始日
Aug 20, 2026, 2:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “CDU” if CDU wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than AfD in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “AfD” if AfD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than CDU in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both CDU and AfD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).**Recent polling for Berlin’s September 20, 2026, Abgeordnetenhaus election shows the CDU maintaining a modest but consistent edge over the AfD in direct head-to-head comparisons.** In the most recent INSA survey (August 7–13), the CDU stood at 20% while the AfD reached 17%, with the Left at 19%; earlier July polls occasionally placed the AfD narrowly ahead or tied, but aggregates and subsequent surveys have reverted to CDU leads of 1–3 points.
The CDU, currently governing in a CDU–SPD coalition under new lead candidate Stefan Evers after Kai Wegner’s withdrawal amid a January power-outage controversy, benefits from its established base despite an overall decline from its 2023 result. The AfD has doubled its 2023 share to the mid-to-high teens on issues such as migration and security, yet mainstream parties maintain a cordon sanitaire excluding it from coalitions.
With four parties clustered between 16% and 21% and no two-party majority in sight, the narrow but persistent CDU advantage in late-summer surveys underpins the 69% implied probability that the CDU will finish ahead of the AfD on election night.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “CDU” if CDU wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than AfD in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “AfD” if AfD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than CDU in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both CDU and AfD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve to “CDU” if CDU wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than AfD in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “AfD” if AfD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than CDU in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both CDU and AfD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
音量
$2,694終了日
2026/09/20マーケット開始日
Aug 20, 2026, 2:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Recent polling for Berlin’s September 20, 2026, Abgeordnetenhaus election shows the CDU maintaining a modest but consistent edge over the AfD in direct head-to-head comparisons.** In the most recent INSA survey (August 7–13), the CDU stood at 20% while the AfD reached 17%, with the Left at 19%; earlier July polls occasionally placed the AfD narrowly ahead or tied, but aggregates and subsequent surveys have reverted to CDU leads of 1–3 points. The CDU, currently governing in a CDU–SPD coalition under new lead candidate Stefan Evers after Kai Wegner’s withdrawal amid a January power-outage controversy, benefits from its established base despite an overall decline from its 2023 result. The AfD has doubled its 2023 share to the mid-to-high teens on issues such as migration and security, yet mainstream parties maintain a cordon sanitaire excluding it from coalitions. With four parties clustered between 16% and 21% and no two-party majority in sight, the narrow but persistent CDU advantage in late-summer surveys underpins the 69% implied probability that the CDU will finish ahead of the AfD on election night.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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