Recent polling for Berlin’s September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election shows Linke, CDU, AfD, and Grüne clustered within a few points of one another in the high teens, with SPD close behind, leaving the identity of the fourth-place finisher highly uncertain. The withdrawal of CDU Governing Mayor Kai Wegner in July narrowed the center-right’s visibility while boosting Linke’s momentum in subsequent surveys. Traders therefore assign the highest probability to Grüne for fourth while viewing AfD, Linke, and BSW as plausible alternatives, reflecting the narrow margins and shared voter pools among these parties. Late-campaign events, differential turnout among urban versus suburban districts, and any final shifts in undecided voters—currently near 48 percent—could still reorder the middle of the field before election night.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日グリューネ 53%
AfD 15%
リンク 14%
CDU 12%
新規
新規
2026/09/20
グリューネ
53%
AfD
15%
リンク
14%
CDU
12%
SPD
9%
FDP
8%
BSW
4%
FW
3%
グリューネ 53%
AfD 15%
リンク 14%
CDU 12%
新規
新規
2026/09/20
グリューネ
$1,373 Vol.
53%
AfD
$36 Vol.
15%
リンク
$110 Vol.
14%
CDU
$36 Vol.
12%
SPD
$36 Vol.
9%
FDP
$99 Vol.
8%
BSW
$51 Vol.
4%
FW
$84 Vol.
3%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Recent polling for Berlin’s September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election shows Linke, CDU, AfD, and Grüne clustered within a few points of one another in the high teens, with SPD close behind, leaving the identity of the fourth-place finisher highly uncertain. The withdrawal of CDU Governing Mayor Kai Wegner in July narrowed the center-right’s visibility while boosting Linke’s momentum in subsequent surveys. Traders therefore assign the highest probability to Grüne for fourth while viewing AfD, Linke, and BSW as plausible alternatives, reflecting the narrow margins and shared voter pools among these parties. Late-campaign events, differential turnout among urban versus suburban districts, and any final shifts in undecided voters—currently near 48 percent—could still reorder the middle of the field before election night.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
マーケット開始日： Aug 20, 2026, 2:14 PM ET
音量
$1,823終了日
2026/09/20マーケット開始日
Aug 20, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Recent polling for Berlin’s September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election shows Linke, CDU, AfD, and Grüne clustered within a few points of one another in the high teens, with SPD close behind, leaving the identity of the fourth-place finisher highly uncertain. The withdrawal of CDU Governing Mayor Kai Wegner in July narrowed the center-right’s visibility while boosting Linke’s momentum in subsequent surveys. Traders therefore assign the highest probability to Grüne for fourth while viewing AfD, Linke, and BSW as plausible alternatives, reflecting the narrow margins and shared voter pools among these parties. Late-campaign events, differential turnout among urban versus suburban districts, and any final shifts in undecided voters—currently near 48 percent—could still reorder the middle of the field before election night.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
音量
$1,823終了日
2026/09/20マーケット開始日
Aug 20, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling for Berlin’s September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election shows Linke, CDU, AfD, and Grüne clustered within a few points of one another in the high teens, with SPD close behind, leaving the identity of the fourth-place finisher highly uncertain. The withdrawal of CDU Governing Mayor Kai Wegner in July narrowed the center-right’s visibility while boosting Linke’s momentum in subsequent surveys. Traders therefore assign the highest probability to Grüne for fourth while viewing AfD, Linke, and BSW as plausible alternatives, reflecting the narrow margins and shared voter pools among these parties. Late-campaign events, differential turnout among urban versus suburban districts, and any final shifts in undecided voters—currently near 48 percent—could still reorder the middle of the field before election night.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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