**The Late Show With Stephen Colbert’s 73% market-implied probability stems primarily from its record nine Emmy nominations in its final season, five Creative Arts wins (including directing and writing for a variety series), and the emotional weight of a farewell campaign after CBS canceled the program in May 2026.** As an area award under the Television Academy’s new rules, nominees are evaluated individually on merit rather than head-to-head, raising the possibility of multiple winners if any clears the 90% threshold. Trader consensus favors Colbert due to its recent precursor momentum and legacy narrative over perennial contenders like Last Week Tonight With John Oliver (strong historical writing wins but less current sentiment), Saturday Night Live, The Daily Show, and Jimmy Kimmel Live! The September 14 ceremony is the immediate catalyst that could confirm or shift these odds.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日エミー2026 ：傑出したバラエティシリーズ
エミー2026 ：傑出したバラエティシリーズ
ザ・レイト・ショー・ウィズ・スティーブン・コルベア 71%
ジョン・オリバーのラスト・ウィーク・トゥナイト 7.5%
「ジミー・キンメル・ライブ！」 5.2%
「ザ・デイリー・ショー」 4.0%
$154,874 Vol.
$154,874 Vol.
2026/09/14
ザ・レイト・ショー・ウィズ・スティーブン・コルベア
71%
ジョン・オリバーのラスト・ウィーク・トゥナイト
7%
「ジミー・キンメル・ライブ！」
5%
「ザ・デイリー・ショー」
4%
サタデー・ナイト・ライブ
4%
ザ・レイト・ショー・ウィズ・スティーブン・コルベア 71%
ジョン・オリバーのラスト・ウィーク・トゥナイト 7.5%
「ジミー・キンメル・ライブ！」 5.2%
「ザ・デイリー・ショー」 4.0%
$154,874 Vol.
$154,874 Vol.
2026/09/14
ザ・レイト・ショー・ウィズ・スティーブン・コルベア
$48,365 Vol.
71%
ジョン・オリバーのラスト・ウィーク・トゥナイト
$30,473 Vol.
7%
「ジミー・キンメル・ライブ！」
$35,798 Vol.
5%
「ザ・デイリー・ショー」
$20,806 Vol.
4%
サタデー・ナイト・ライブ
$19,744 Vol.
4%
The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California
This market will resolve according to the nominee who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding variety series”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**The Late Show With Stephen Colbert’s 73% market-implied probability stems primarily from its record nine Emmy nominations in its final season, five Creative Arts wins (including directing and writing for a variety series), and the emotional weight of a farewell campaign after CBS canceled the program in May 2026.**
As an area award under the Television Academy’s new rules, nominees are evaluated individually on merit rather than head-to-head, raising the possibility of multiple winners if any clears the 90% threshold. Trader consensus favors Colbert due to its recent precursor momentum and legacy narrative over perennial contenders like Last Week Tonight With John Oliver (strong historical writing wins but less current sentiment), Saturday Night Live, The Daily Show, and Jimmy Kimmel Live! The September 14 ceremony is the immediate catalyst that could confirm or shift these odds.
The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California
This market will resolve according to the nominee who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding variety series”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the nominee who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding variety series”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Jul 9, 2026, 8:40 PM ET
音量
$154,874終了日
2026/09/14マーケット開始日
Jul 9, 2026, 8:40 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California
This market will resolve according to the nominee who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding variety series”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**The Late Show With Stephen Colbert’s 73% market-implied probability stems primarily from its record nine Emmy nominations in its final season, five Creative Arts wins (including directing and writing for a variety series), and the emotional weight of a farewell campaign after CBS canceled the program in May 2026.**
As an area award under the Television Academy’s new rules, nominees are evaluated individually on merit rather than head-to-head, raising the possibility of multiple winners if any clears the 90% threshold. Trader consensus favors Colbert due to its recent precursor momentum and legacy narrative over perennial contenders like Last Week Tonight With John Oliver (strong historical writing wins but less current sentiment), Saturday Night Live, The Daily Show, and Jimmy Kimmel Live! The September 14 ceremony is the immediate catalyst that could confirm or shift these odds.
The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California
This market will resolve according to the nominee who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding variety series”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the nominee who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding variety series”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$154,874終了日
2026/09/14マーケット開始日
Jul 9, 2026, 8:40 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...**The Late Show With Stephen Colbert’s 73% market-implied probability stems primarily from its record nine Emmy nominations in its final season, five Creative Arts wins (including directing and writing for a variety series), and the emotional weight of a farewell campaign after CBS canceled the program in May 2026.** As an area award under the Television Academy’s new rules, nominees are evaluated individually on merit rather than head-to-head, raising the possibility of multiple winners if any clears the 90% threshold. Trader consensus favors Colbert due to its recent precursor momentum and legacy narrative over perennial contenders like Last Week Tonight With John Oliver (strong historical writing wins but less current sentiment), Saturday Night Live, The Daily Show, and Jimmy Kimmel Live! The September 14 ceremony is the immediate catalyst that could confirm or shift these odds.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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