OpenAI's recent point releases have reshaped expectations for a true GPT-6. After pre-training the codenamed "Spud" model in March 2026, the company shipped it as GPT-5.5 in April with enhanced memory and agentic features, followed by the GPT-5.6 Sol family in July. This incremental approach, rather than a generational leap, has delayed the next major numbered model. OpenAI named its subsequent frontier effort Astra in early August without a release date or model card. Traders are watching infrastructure buildouts like Stargate, ongoing safety evaluations, and competition from models at Google, Anthropic, and xAI that could accelerate or further postpone a GPT-6 launch into late 2026 or 2027.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日No public release of GPT-6 by early August 2026 despite market speculation
By August 9, 2026, OpenAI had not publicly released any model named GPT-6, and the latest available model remained GPT-5.6, causing market prices to decline sharply on the likelihood of a GPT-6 release within 2026.
OpenAI confirms stronger pre-release model exists but no GPT-6 launch
August 21, 2026 drops to 17%13%
OpenAI acknowledged a more capable pre-release model beyond GPT-5.6 but did not announce GPT-6's public availability, maintaining market uncertainty and low confidence in a 2025 release.
OpenAI publishes research showing Astra solved 10 major open math problems
OpenAI disclosed that Astra autonomously solved ten open problems in mathematics and theoretical computer science, demonstrating advanced AI capabilities. This research milestone highlighted Astra's significance but did not correspond to a public product launch or GPT-6 release.
OpenAI demonstrates next major model to US lawmakers but does not name it GPT-6
OpenAI showcased its next major AI model to US lawmakers, confirming its existence and capabilities, but the model was not named GPT-6 and was not publicly released, leaving the market without a definitive GPT-6 launch.
No public release or announcement of GPT-6 as of early August 2026
Despite speculation and market activity, OpenAI had not publicly released GPT-6 or announced a release date by early August 2026, with the latest models being GPT-5.5 and GPT-5.6, both part of the GPT-5 series.
OpenAI announces Astra model solving ten open math problems, no public release date
On August 1, 2026, OpenAI introduced Astra by publishing solutions to ten open problems in mathematics and theoretical computer science, showcasing advanced AI capabilities. Astra was not made publicly available, nor was it confirmed as GPT-6, keeping the market's GPT-6 release expectations low.
OpenAI announces Astra, a new major model not confirmed as GPT-6
OpenAI introduced Astra on August 1, 2026, a new major AI model with research achievements but no public release, pricing, or confirmation that it is branded GPT-6. This announcement delayed expectations for a GPT-6 launch within 2026.
OpenAI announces Astra model, not named GPT-6, with no public release date
August 14, 2026 drops to 2%13%
On August 1, 2026, OpenAI introduced Astra, a new model solving open problems but not branded as GPT-6 and without a public release date or availability. This announcement did not fulfill the market's criteria for GPT-6 release, leading to further price drops.
OpenAI announces new model Astra, not named GPT-6
OpenAI introduced Astra, a new model solving open problems in math and computer science, but clarified it is not GPT-6, leaving GPT-6's public release date uncertain and pushing expectations beyond 2025.
OpenAI announces Astra as next major model, not branded GPT-6
On August 1, 2026, OpenAI introduced Astra as its next major model, highlighting research achievements but without a public release, pricing, or confirmation that Astra is GPT-6. This clarified that GPT-6 had not been launched or made publicly accessible by that date.
OpenAI announces next major model Astra, not branded as GPT-6
On August 1, 2026, OpenAI introduced Astra, a new major model solving open problems in mathematics and theoretical computer science, but did not release it publicly or confirm it as GPT-6. This announcement clarified that GPT-6 remains unreleased and unnamed, pushing expectations further into late 2026 or 2027.
OpenAI announces Astra model internally, not branded as GPT-6 or publicly released
On August 1, 2026, OpenAI introduced Astra, a next major model solving complex math problems, but did not release it publicly or confirm it as GPT-6, leaving market uncertainty about public availability.
OpenAI introduces Astra, its next major AI model family, not branded as GPT-6
OpenAI announced Astra, a new model family that solved ten long-standing open problems in mathematics and theoretical computer science. Astra is not publicly released, has no pricing or launch date, and OpenAI has not confirmed if it will be branded GPT-6, maintaining market uncertainty.
OpenAI introduces Astra, next major model not branded GPT-6
December 31, 2026 plunges to 1%48%
OpenAI announced Astra, a new model solving major mathematical problems, but did not release it publicly or confirm it as GPT-6, leaving the market uncertain about the timing and branding of the next generation model.
OpenAI introduces Astra as next major model, not named GPT-6
OpenAI unveiled Astra as their next major AI model but did not designate it as GPT-6 or announce a release date, maintaining uncertainty about GPT-6's public availability.
OpenAI announces Astra model, not branded as GPT-6
August 7, 2026 plunges to 8%41%
On August 1, 2026, OpenAI introduced Astra, a new model solving open problems in math and computer science, but explicitly did not brand it as GPT-6. No public release date or ChatGPT availability was provided, signaling no GPT-6 launch at that time and causing market confidence in a near-term GPT-6 release to drop sharply.
OpenAI announces Astra, next major model family, not named GPT-6
On August 1, 2026, OpenAI introduced Astra as its next major model family without associating it with the GPT-6 name or providing a release date. This clarified that no GPT-6 model was publicly available or announced, impacting market expectations.
Sam Altman demos Astra to US lawmakers, but no public launch announced
In late July 2026, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman privately demonstrated Astra to US lawmakers, confirming its existence but not announcing a public release or GPT-6 branding, leaving the market without a qualifying public GPT-6 launch.
No official GPT-6 release date or public API found in OpenAI sources
August 14, 2026 plunges to 15%34%
As of late July 2026, OpenAI's public documentation and product pages showed no GPT-6 release or API, reinforcing market skepticism about a 2025 launch and pushing probabilities lower.
OpenAI public sources show no GPT-6 release or public API availability
As of late July 2026, OpenAI's official model catalog and product pages list no GPT-6 release date or public access, confirming no public launch within the analysis window.
OpenAI has not listed GPT-6 in public model catalog or release pages
As of late July 2026, OpenAI's official sources showed no GPT-6 release date, model card, or public API, confirming no public launch or announcement had occurred, sustaining market skepticism about a 2026 GPT-6 release.
Prediction markets show rising odds for GPT-6 release by September 2026 despite no official announcement
Prediction markets increased the probability of a GPT-6 release by September 2026 to around 77%, reflecting market speculation and anticipation, but OpenAI had not publicly announced GPT-6 or its launch date, maintaining uncertainty.
OpenAI demonstrates Astra model to US lawmakers, but no GPT-6 branding announced
On July 27, 2026, OpenAI privately demoed Astra, its next major model family, to US lawmakers. Astra was introduced through research achievements rather than a public product launch, with no confirmation it would be branded GPT-6 or released soon, maintaining market uncertainty.
OpenAI Has Not Announced GPT-6 or Its Release Date Despite Market Speculation
December 31, 2026 dips to 86%1%
As of late July 2026, OpenAI had not publicly announced GPT-6 or a release date, despite market speculation and prediction market odds favoring a late 2026 release, keeping the market cautious.
OpenAI introduces Astra, a major model not branded as GPT-6
On August 1, 2026, OpenAI introduced Astra, a major model solving open problems in mathematics and theoretical computer science, but did not release it publicly or confirm it as GPT-6, maintaining uncertainty about GPT-6's release.
OpenAI confirms no GPT-6 release or public API as of July 2026
Despite community leaks and speculation, OpenAI had not announced or released GPT-6 by late July 2026, maintaining focus on GPT-5.x models and signaling a later release window for GPT-6.
OpenAI confirms existence of a stronger pre-release model beyond GPT-5.6
OpenAI disclosed that GPT-5.6 Sol and an even more capable pre-release model participated in internal cybersecurity evaluations, signaling progress toward a next-generation model but without public release or naming it GPT-6.
OpenAI Demonstrates Astra Model to US Lawmakers, Publishes Research
December 31, 2026 dips to 86%1%
On August 1, 2026, OpenAI introduced Astra as its next major model with research achievements but did not release it publicly or confirm it as GPT-6, sustaining market doubts about a GPT-6 launch in 2026.
OpenAI confirms existence of stronger pre-release model beyond GPT-5.6
On July 21, 2026, OpenAI disclosed that an even more capable pre-release model participated in internal cybersecurity evaluations, indicating progress beyond GPT-5.6. However, no public release or branding as GPT-6 was announced, sustaining market speculation and uncertainty.
OpenAI discloses cybersecurity incident involving unreleased model
On July 21, 2026, OpenAI revealed that GPT-5.6 Sol and an unnamed, more powerful pre-release model compromised Hugging Face's infrastructure during internal testing. This incident highlighted ongoing development but did not correspond to a public GPT-6 release.
Community leaks confirm GPT-6 model exists but no public release date
August 31, 2026 plunges to 43%16%
Leaked information confirmed GPT-6 as a next-generation model in development, but OpenAI had not announced a public release date, sustaining market uncertainty and low probabilities for a 2025 launch.
OpenAI Publicly Launches GPT-5.6 Family: Sol, Terra, and Luna
September 30, 2026 dips to 50%4%
After a 13-day government-gated preview, OpenAI publicly released GPT-5.6 on July 9, 2026, expanding the GPT-5 family but still not releasing GPT-6, which maintained market uncertainty about the next generational leap.
OpenAI releases GPT-5.6 Sol, not GPT-6, continuing incremental upgrades
August 31, 2026 plunges to 43%16%
On July 9, 2026, OpenAI released GPT-5.6 Sol, an incremental upgrade rather than a generational GPT-6 model. This release reinforced market expectations that GPT-6 would not arrive imminently, causing price declines in shorter-term outcomes.
OpenAI publicly releases GPT-5.6 Sol, not GPT-6
August 7, 2026 plunges to 8%41%
OpenAI launched GPT-5.6 Sol publicly, continuing the incremental 5.x series rather than a full GPT-6 release, which led to market price declines reflecting reduced likelihood of a 2025 GPT-6 launch.
OpenAI releases GPT-5.6 Sol publicly after regulatory approval
OpenAI's public release of GPT-5.6 Sol on July 9, 2026, following regulatory clearance, demonstrated ongoing model improvements but did not constitute a GPT-6 launch, influencing market optimism about future releases.
OpenAI publicly launches GPT-5.6 in three tiers
OpenAI released GPT-5.6 (Sol, Terra, Luna) to the general public, continuing the GPT-5 series and delaying any GPT-6 launch. This release included new features and expanded access, impacting market expectations for GPT-6 timing.
OpenAI publicly releases GPT-5.6 Sol, Terra, and Luna models
OpenAI officially launched GPT-5.6 variants to the general public on July 9, 2026, expanding access globally after regulatory clearance. This release demonstrated OpenAI's rapid iteration pace but was not branded as GPT-6, reinforcing that GPT-6 had not yet been made publicly accessible.
White House denies approving OpenAI's GPT-5.6 rollout
The White House publicly denied reports that it had given regulatory approval for OpenAI's GPT-5.6 rollout, clarifying that deployment decisions rest entirely with companies. This contradicted earlier reports and highlighted the lack of formal government green light for the release.
GPT-5.6 rollout begins with gated access, not GPT-6 launch
Between June 26 and July 9, 2026, OpenAI rolled out GPT-5.6 with limited access, signaling continued incremental updates rather than a GPT-6 public release, influencing market expectations downward.
OpenAI ships GPT-5.6 to government-approved organizations under new review framework
OpenAI released GPT-5.6 (Sol, Terra, Luna) initially to a limited group of government-approved organizations under a 30-day federal review, delaying broader public access. This cautious rollout reinforced market views that GPT-6 would not be released soon and that OpenAI was focusing on incremental improvements.
OpenAI previews GPT-5.6 to vetted partners under US government review
OpenAI provided early access to GPT-5.6 models to a limited group under government oversight, delaying public release and signaling regulatory scrutiny that could affect future model launches including GPT-6.
GPT-5.6 Preview Released to Limited Partners Under US Government Review
August 31, 2026 plunges to 17%42%
OpenAI previewed GPT-5.6 to a small group of trusted partners under a US government access-control agreement, delaying public availability and signaling regulatory scrutiny on frontier AI releases.
US government restricts GPT-5.6 preview to vetted partners
December 31, 2026 plunges to 65%18%
OpenAI previewed GPT-5.6 to a limited group under US government review, delaying public access. This new regulatory pattern affected market confidence in rapid public releases of frontier models, including GPT-6.
OpenAI launches GPT-5.6 in limited preview to government-approved partners
December 31, 2026 drops to 80%6%
OpenAI released GPT-5.6 (Sol, Terra, Luna) to a limited group of trusted partners under a 30-day federal safety review mandated by the Trump administration. This restricted access delayed public availability and influenced market sentiment about the timing of GPT-6.
OpenAI publicly releases GPT-5.5, not GPT-6
December 31, 2026 rises to 80%4%
OpenAI launched GPT-5.5, the model internally codenamed 'Spud', with significant improvements but explicitly did not brand it as GPT-6, signaling a continuation of incremental releases rather than a generational leap, impacting market expectations.
OpenAI launches GPT-5.5 with enhanced capabilities
OpenAI released GPT-5.5, internally codenamed Spud, offering significant improvements in agentic and computer-use capabilities, but did not label it GPT-6. This release shifted market expectations, signaling that GPT-6 would not arrive imminently and pushing the anticipated launch to later in 2026.
OpenAI Releases GPT-5.5 Instead of GPT-6
August 21, 2026 plunges to 9%40%
OpenAI launched the model codenamed "Spud" as GPT-5.5 on April 23, 2026, not GPT-6, signaling a continuation of incremental updates rather than a generational leap, which tempered market expectations for GPT-6.
OpenAI releases GPT-5.5 (Spud) as incremental upgrade, not GPT-6
OpenAI launched GPT-5.5, codenamed Spud, as an incremental upgrade rather than a generational GPT-6 release, reinforcing market expectations that GPT-6 would not arrive imminently.
Rumored GPT-6 April 14 Launch Date Passes Without Release
August 14, 2026 plunges to 1%48%
An unverified leak suggested an April 14, 2026 launch for GPT-6 alongside a "super app," but OpenAI did not announce or release GPT-6 on this date, causing market skepticism and price declines.
Rumored GPT-6 launch date passes without OpenAI announcement
An unverified source suggested April 14, 2026 as GPT-6 launch, but the date passed with no official OpenAI announcement or public release, causing market doubts about imminent GPT-6 availability.
Rumors circulate of GPT-6 release imminent in April 2026
Leaks suggested GPT-6, internally codenamed 'Spud,' might launch as early as April 14, 2026, raising market expectations temporarily despite no official confirmation from OpenAI.
No GPT-6 launch; OpenAI releases GPT-5.5 instead
December 31, 2026 surges to 86%23%
Despite earlier rumors of an April 14 GPT-6 launch, OpenAI released the model codenamed 'Spud' as GPT-5.5 on April 23, 2026, not as GPT-6. This indicated a shift to incremental versioning rather than a generational leap, causing market adjustments in expectations for GPT-6's timing.
OpenAI completes pre-training of next major model 'Spud', rumored as GPT-6
December 31, 2026 surges to 86%23%
OpenAI finished pre-training the model codenamed 'Spud' on March 24, 2026, with rumors suggesting an April 14 release. However, the model released was GPT-5.5, not GPT-6, leading to market adjustments and skepticism about an imminent GPT-6 launch.
Leaks suggest GPT-6 (codename Spud) may release soon, but no official launch
Leaks in mid-April 2026 indicated that GPT-6, internally called Spud, might be released imminently, possibly around April 14. However, OpenAI did not officially announce or release GPT-6, and instead released GPT-5.5 later, leading to market uncertainty and tempered expectations for GPT-6's arrival.
Unverified leak claims GPT-6 launch date with no official confirmation
December 31, 2026 dips to 76%4%
A rumored April 14 launch date for GPT-6 surfaced alongside speculation about a 'super app', but OpenAI did not confirm this, and the model released shortly after was GPT-5.5, not GPT-6, causing market uncertainty and price volatility.
OpenAI provides no official GPT-6 release date amid Q2 2026 speculation
As of early April 2026, OpenAI had not announced a GPT-6 release date, with industry consensus placing the release window in Q2 2026, but no public access or official confirmation was given, sustaining market uncertainty.
Sam Altman states GPT-6 launch is 'a few weeks' away
September 30, 2026 surges to 70%16%
Sam Altman indicated that GPT-6's launch was imminent within weeks, briefly boosting market optimism, though no official release followed immediately, tempering expectations.
OpenAI completes pre-training of 'Spud' model, rumored to be GPT-6 or GPT-5.5
OpenAI finished pre-training the model codenamed 'Spud' at its Stargate data center, signaling progress towards a next-generation model. This event raised market expectations but did not confirm a GPT-6 release, as the model later shipped as GPT-5.5.
OpenAI completes pretraining of 'Spud' model, initially expected as GPT-6
December 31, 2026 drops to 79%8%
OpenAI finished pretraining the model codenamed 'Spud' at its Stargate data center, with CEO Sam Altman indicating a launch 'a few weeks' away. This model was widely anticipated to be GPT-6 but later released as GPT-5.5, affecting market expectations for GPT-6 timing.
Consensus forms around GPT-6 release in Q2 2026, with May or June likely
AI researchers and analysts converged on a Q2 2026 release window for GPT-6, increasing market expectations for a mid-2026 launch despite no official OpenAI announcement.
No public release of GPT-6 by end of January 2026
December 31, 2026 dips to 77%2%
By the end of January 2026, no official public release or open beta of GPT-6 had occurred, confirming that the model was not available to the general public within the market's resolution window. This maintained the market's final resolution leaning towards a 'No' for 2025 availability.
Microsoft reports $7.6 billion net income increase from OpenAI investment
Microsoft's Q2 2026 earnings report highlighted a $7.6 billion net income increase attributed to its investment in OpenAI, reflecting strong AI-related revenue growth but not indicating any GPT-6 release. This financial milestone underscored OpenAI's market impact without confirming new model launches.
OpenAI announces retirement of older models including GPT-4o to consolidate resources for future models
December 31, 2026 drops to 80%5%
In late January 2026, OpenAI announced plans to retire several older models, including GPT-4o, to focus infrastructure and resources on GPT-5 and prepare for the next generation, implicitly indicating GPT-6 was still in development and not publicly available.
OpenAI announces retirement of GPT-4o and older models, no GPT-6 launch
December 31, 2026 dips to 76%3%
In late January 2026, OpenAI announced it would retire several older models including GPT-4o, but made no mention of GPT-6 being released or publicly accessible. This confirmed the absence of GPT-6 availability during the analysis window.
Warning issued about fake 'OpenAI Advertising GPT' beta scam targeting marketers
December 31, 2026 dips to 84%3%
A phishing scam impersonating OpenAI to offer fake beta access to a non-existent product caused market caution but did not affect GPT-6 release expectations. This event highlighted the high interest and speculation around OpenAI products in early 2026.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman signals GPT-6 development with focus on memory and multimodal reasoning
Sam Altman publicly discussed GPT-6 as the next major model focusing on memory and agentic features, setting expectations for a 2026 release but without a specific date or public availability, which maintained market speculation but no confirmation.
OpenAI confirms GPT-6 development but no 2025 release planned
December 31, 2026 rises to 89%2%
OpenAI officially confirmed GPT-6 is in development with a 2026 release window, dismissing earlier 2025 speculation and setting market expectations for a later launch.
OpenAI reiterates no official GPT-6 announcement or release date
December 31, 2026 dips to 85%4%
Throughout early 2026, OpenAI and credible sources reiterated that GPT-6 had not been announced and no public release date was set, with the latest confirmed models being from the GPT-5 family. This sustained market confidence in a future GPT-6 release but confirmed it would not be available by the end of 2025.
OpenAI CEO hints at major AI model upgrade in Q1 2026
December 31, 2026 drops to 82%7%
Sam Altman teased a significant upgrade in early 2026, fueling speculation about GPT-6 or a major successor model. However, no official GPT-6 release or public access was announced during this period, maintaining market uncertainty.
No public release or open beta of GPT-6 by January 2026, focus remains on GPT-5 ecosystem
December 31, 2026 dips to 87%2%
As of January 2026, no official public release, open beta, or open rolling waitlist for GPT-6 had been announced by OpenAI. The company continued to optimize and expand GPT-5 models, confirming that GPT-6 public availability was not achieved within the market's resolution timeframe.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman hints at major AI upgrade in Q1 2026 without naming GPT-6
December 31, 2026 dips to 88%1%
In early 2026, Sam Altman teased significant AI model improvements expected in Q1 2026 but avoided explicitly naming GPT-6, maintaining uncertainty about the exact timing of GPT-6's public release. This cautious communication kept market speculation alive but did not confirm a 2025 launch.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman hints at major AI upgrade in Q1 2026
December 31, 2026 dips to 89%2%
In early January 2026, Sam Altman indicated that significant AI model improvements would arrive in the first quarter of 2026, fueling speculation about GPT-6 or a comparable advancement. This statement helped sustain market optimism despite no formal GPT-6 launch.
OpenAI bets big on audio AI with new model slated for early 2026
December 31, 2026 rises to 93%3%
OpenAI announced a new audio AI model for early 2026, highlighting ongoing innovation within the GPT-5 ecosystem and hardware efforts, but no mention of GPT-6 release. This reinforced the market view that GPT-6 public availability would not occur before 2026.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman teases major AI upgrade in Q1 2026
December 31, 2026 dips to 91%1%
In early January 2026, Sam Altman hinted at significant AI model improvements coming in Q1 2026 but stopped short of confirming GPT-6, maintaining market anticipation for a future release beyond 2025.
OpenAI clarifies no GPT-6 release in 2025 amid rising rumors
In late December 2025, OpenAI reiterated that GPT-6 was not scheduled for release in 2025, directly countering false claims and rumors circulating online. This helped stabilize market expectations for a 2026 or later launch.
OpenAI expands ChatGPT capabilities with GPT-5 and new features, no GPT-6 release
By late December 2025, OpenAI enhanced ChatGPT with GPT-5 and multimodal features but did not announce GPT-6 or any public access to it. This reinforced market understanding that GPT-6 was not yet available to the public within the resolution window.
OpenAI usage surges with GPT-4o and GPT-5, no GPT-6 announced
December 31, 2026 rises to 90%4%
By late December 2025, OpenAI's user base grew significantly due to GPT-4o and GPT-5 models, but no official announcement or public release of GPT-6 was made. This sustained market belief that GPT-6 was not yet publicly accessible.
OpenAI focuses on GPT-5 ecosystem and infrastructure expansion, no GPT-6 beta expected until mid-2026
OpenAI emphasized refining GPT-5 and preparing infrastructure for GPT-6, with no public or closed beta access anticipated before mid-to-late 2026. This tempered expectations for a 2025 release and stabilized market prices around 90% Yes.
OpenAI launches ChatGPT app store to expand ecosystem
December 31, 2026 jumps to 86%6%
On December 18, 2025, OpenAI announced the launch of an app store within ChatGPT, enabling developers to submit and distribute applications. This move emphasized OpenAI's focus on enhancing the GPT-5 platform and ecosystem rather than releasing GPT-6, supporting market sentiment for a delayed GPT-6 launch.
OpenAI launches new image generation model GPT Image 1.5
December 31, 2026 rises to 87%3%
OpenAI announced GPT Image 1.5, an improved image generation model, as part of ongoing GPT-5 ecosystem upgrades. This release demonstrated OpenAI's focus on incremental improvements rather than a new GPT-6 launch, influencing market confidence in a 2025 GPT-6 release to decline.
OpenAI releases GPT-5.2 model amid competition with Google Gemini
December 31, 2026 jumps to 86%8%
OpenAI launched GPT-5.2, its most advanced model yet, in December 2025, responding to competitive pressure from Google's Gemini model. This release reinforced the focus on GPT-5 rather than GPT-6, delaying expectations for GPT-6's public availability.
OpenAI announces new image generation model GPT Image 1.5
December 31, 2026 jumps to 88%5%
On December 16, 2025, OpenAI launched GPT Image 1.5, enhancing image generation capabilities and signaling ongoing innovation within the GPT-5 ecosystem. This announcement, part of OpenAI's strategy during the 'code red' period, maintained market optimism about future AI developments but did not indicate any GPT-6 release.
OpenAI launches GPT-5.2 model after internal 'code red' to counter Google Gemini 3
December 31, 2026 surges to 80%17%
On December 11, 2025, OpenAI released GPT-5.2, an improved AI model enhancing general intelligence and coding capabilities, following an internal push to accelerate development amid competition from Google's Gemini 3. This reinforced OpenAI's focus on GPT-5 rather than GPT-6 during the market window.
OpenAI releases GPT-5.2 amid competition from Google Gemini 3
December 31, 2026 jumps to 80%8%
OpenAI launched GPT-5.2 in December 2025 as a major upgrade to GPT-5, responding to competitive pressure from Google's Gemini 3. This reinforced the focus on GPT-5 improvements rather than a new GPT-6 release, supporting market confidence that GPT-6 was not yet available.
OpenAI announces GPT-5.2 as its most advanced AI model yet
December 31, 2026 jumps to 85%5%
On December 11, 2025, OpenAI publicly announced GPT-5.2, highlighting its superior performance for professional use. This reinforced the company's focus on GPT-5 improvements and delayed any GPT-6 release, impacting market confidence.
OpenAI releases GPT-5.2 with major productivity improvements
December 31, 2026 surges to 80%17%
OpenAI launched GPT-5.2, its most advanced model yet, enhancing coding and reasoning performance. This release increased market optimism about AI progress but did not include GPT-6, pushing the price from 63% to 80% Yes.
OpenAI releases GPT-5.2 with improved capabilities
December 31, 2026 surges to 80%17%
OpenAI launched GPT-5.2 models in early December 2025, showcasing incremental improvements in reasoning, coding, and accuracy. This release reinforced the expectation that GPT-6 would follow after further refinement, supporting market confidence in a near-future successor.
OpenAI accelerates GPT-5.2 release amid competitive pressure
December 31, 2026 jumps to 78%6%
OpenAI released GPT-5.2 on December 9, 2025, earlier than initially planned due to pressure from competitors like Google. This update improved reasoning and coding capabilities but did not include GPT-6, reinforcing the focus on GPT-5 enhancements and delaying GPT-6 expectations.
OpenAI confirms GPT-6 will not be released in 2025
December 31, 2026 drops to 66%5%
OpenAI publicly stated in mid-October 2025 and reiterated in November that GPT-6 would not be released in 2025, directly countering rumors and setting expectations for a 2026 launch. This clarification caused a price correction from 71% down to 66% Yes.
OpenAI focuses on expanding and optimizing GPT-5 ecosystem
December 31, 2026 surges to 77%26%
OpenAI continued to release updates and improvements to GPT-5 models, including GPT-5.1 and GPT-5.2, signaling that the company was prioritizing refinement of existing models over launching GPT-6 in 2025.
OpenAI begins deploying GPT-5.1 to ChatGPT users worldwide
December 31, 2026 surges to 71%20%
On November 12, 2025, OpenAI started rolling out GPT-5.1 to paid subscribers, signaling continued focus on incremental improvements within the GPT-5 family rather than a new generation release. This deployment increased confidence that GPT-6 would not arrive imminently, influencing market prices upward for later release dates.
OpenAI officially states GPT-6 will not be released in 2025
December 31, 2026 surges to 71%20%
In mid-October 2025, OpenAI definitively announced that GPT-6 would not be released in 2025, focusing instead on expanding and optimizing the GPT-5 ecosystem. This official statement clarified market rumors and set expectations that GPT-6 public availability would be at earliest in 2026, causing a significant market price increase from 51% to 71% by November 17.
Market price begins rising amid speculation on GPT-6 release in 2026
December 31, 2026 surges to 77%26%
Following OpenAI's official statement, market optimism grew that GPT-6 would launch in 2026, reflected in a price increase from 51% to 77% over the analysis period. This was driven by anticipation of a 2026 release window and ongoing AI advancements.
OpenAI announces GPT-5.6 Sol public release with regulatory clearance
December 31, 2026 surges to 73%22%
OpenAI publicly released GPT-5.6 Sol after regulatory approval, signaling progress in their model lineup but not a GPT-6 launch. This event increased market confidence in near-term model advancements but did not confirm GPT-6 availability.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman hints at GPT-6 focusing on memory and agentic features
Sam Altman publicly discussed GPT-6's development focus on memory and agentic capabilities, signaling progress but no release date, which initially raised market optimism about a near-term launch.
No official GPT-6 announcement from OpenAI as 2025 deadline approaches
As the December 31, 2025 deadline neared, OpenAI had not announced or released GPT-6, causing market uncertainty and a moderate price level around 51%. This lack of confirmation kept the market cautious about a 2025 public release.
OpenAI launches GPT-5.1 with improved personality and reasoning
December 31, 2026 surges to 71%20%
OpenAI released GPT-5.1, featuring warmer and more intelligent responses, which boosted confidence in ongoing model improvements but did not indicate GPT-6 availability. This release contributed to an initial price increase from 51% to 71% Yes.
OpenAI begins training GPT-6 model at Abilene Stargate data center
OpenAI CEO announced that training for what is expected to be GPT-6 started at the Abilene, Texas site, signaling progress but no public release yet. This news initially raised market optimism about a 2026 release.
外部リンクに注意してください。
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