The Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) latest forecast projects a high of 16°C for Ankara at Esenboğa International Airport on April 4, under partly cloudy skies with light winds, driving the market-implied 88% probability for 12°C or higher as trader consensus reflects this strong model agreement from ECMWF and GFS ensembles. Current observations on April 3 reached 16°C amid overcast conditions, consistent with early spring climatology where daily highs average 14–17°C amid transitioning weather patterns and no incoming cold fronts. Inherent forecast uncertainty remains, with minor shifts possible from diurnal cloud cover or southerly flows; watch MGM hourly updates and airport observations for resolution nearing peak afternoon hours.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Highest temperature in Ankara on April 4?
Highest temperature in Ankara on April 4?
12°C or higher 88%
11°C 5%
10°C 1.3%
9°C <1%
$26,854 Vol.
$26,854 Vol.
2°C or below
<1%
3°C
<1%
4°C
<1%
5°C
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
1%
10°C
1%
11°C
5%
12°C or higher
88%
12°C or higher 88%
11°C 5%
10°C 1.3%
9°C <1%
$26,854 Vol.
$26,854 Vol.
2°C or below
<1%
3°C
<1%
4°C
<1%
5°C
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
1%
10°C
1%
11°C
5%
12°C or higher
88%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: Mar 29, 2026, 3:24 PM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) latest forecast projects a high of 16°C for Ankara at Esenboğa International Airport on April 4, under partly cloudy skies with light winds, driving the market-implied 88% probability for 12°C or higher as trader consensus reflects this strong model agreement from ECMWF and GFS ensembles. Current observations on April 3 reached 16°C amid overcast conditions, consistent with early spring climatology where daily highs average 14–17°C amid transitioning weather patterns and no incoming cold fronts. Inherent forecast uncertainty remains, with minor shifts possible from diurnal cloud cover or southerly flows; watch MGM hourly updates and airport observations for resolution nearing peak afternoon hours.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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