Forecast models from agencies including the Korea Meteorological Administration show peak temperatures in Busan on July 2 clustered around 26–28°C, reflecting the market's tight distribution between those outcomes. Primary drivers include the strength and position of the North Pacific subtropical high, which promotes subsidence and daytime heating, combined with warm sea-surface temperatures in the Korea Strait that enhance moisture and limit nocturnal cooling. Local factors such as Busan's coastal location introduce land-sea breeze effects that can moderate afternoon maxima, while any lingering monsoon moisture or increased cloud cover would favor the lower end of the range. Ensemble spreads remain modest but highlight sensitivity to small shifts in upper-level ridging or shortwave trough timing, with updated model runs expected to refine probabilities before resolution.