Latest National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model runs from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF, updated within the last 24 hours, show Chicago's high temperature on April 18 clustering in the mid-to-upper 60s°F, driving trader sentiment toward 66-67°F (30%) and 68-69°F (23.5%) as leading outcomes amid close competition. This reflects a mild southerly flow and building upper-level ridge displacing recent cool, wet spring patterns—Chicago's wettest in over 40 years—which have kept earlier April highs near normal 60°F averages. Differentiating factors include afternoon cloud cover timing and boundary layer mixing: lingering moisture favors the lower bin, while faster clearing and stronger insolation could tip toward 68-69°F. Inherent 48-hour forecast uncertainty persists, with new 12z model updates expected today clarifying trajectories.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Highest temperature in Chicago on April 18?
Highest temperature in Chicago on April 18?
66-67°F 30%
68-69°F 20%
64-65°F 16%
62-63°F 11.5%
$10,774 Vol.
$10,774 Vol.
53°F or below
1%
54-55°F
2%
56-57°F
3%
58-59°F
5%
60-61°F
7%
62-63°F
12%
64-65°F
16%
66-67°F
30%
68-69°F
20%
70-71°F
7%
72°F or higher
9%
66-67°F 30%
68-69°F 20%
64-65°F 16%
62-63°F 11.5%
$10,774 Vol.
$10,774 Vol.
53°F or below
1%
54-55°F
2%
56-57°F
3%
58-59°F
5%
60-61°F
7%
62-63°F
12%
64-65°F
16%
66-67°F
30%
68-69°F
20%
70-71°F
7%
72°F or higher
9%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: Apr 16, 2026, 12:41 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Latest National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model runs from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF, updated within the last 24 hours, show Chicago's high temperature on April 18 clustering in the mid-to-upper 60s°F, driving trader sentiment toward 66-67°F (30%) and 68-69°F (23.5%) as leading outcomes amid close competition. This reflects a mild southerly flow and building upper-level ridge displacing recent cool, wet spring patterns—Chicago's wettest in over 40 years—which have kept earlier April highs near normal 60°F averages. Differentiating factors include afternoon cloud cover timing and boundary layer mixing: lingering moisture favors the lower bin, while faster clearing and stronger insolation could tip toward 68-69°F. Inherent 48-hour forecast uncertainty persists, with new 12z model updates expected today clarifying trajectories.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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外部リンクに注意してください。
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