National Weather Service model consensus and recent runs indicate a cooler-than-normal air mass will reach Chicago on August 1, 2026, driven by northerly flow behind a departing front and limited daytime heating under increasing clouds. This has shifted trader-implied odds toward the 70–73 °F range as the most probable outcome, well below the 1991–2020 August 1 climatological high of 84 °F. Key differentiating factors include lake-breeze moderation along the shoreline, potential for partial cloud cover reducing insolation, and uncertainty in exact frontal timing that could allow brief warming if winds turn more westerly. Official forecast updates from the Chicago NWS office through tonight will provide the final guidance ahead of market resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日8月1日のシカゴの最高気温は？
8月1日のシカゴの最高気温は？
70〜71°F 39%
72〜73°F 34%
68～69°F 14%
74〜75°F 12%
新規
新規
2026/08/01
華氏63度以下
<1%
64〜65°F
<1%
66～67°F
6%
68～69°F
14%
70〜71°F
39%
72〜73°F
34%
74〜75°F
12%
76～77°F
2%
78〜79°F
2%
80～81°F
<1%
82°F以上
<1%
70〜71°F 39%
72〜73°F 34%
68～69°F 14%
74〜75°F 12%
新規
新規
2026/08/01
華氏63度以下
$333 Vol.
<1%
64〜65°F
$597 Vol.
<1%
66～67°F
$475 Vol.
6%
68～69°F
$1,111 Vol.
14%
70〜71°F
$1,666 Vol.
39%
72〜73°F
$1,002 Vol.
34%
74〜75°F
$497 Vol.
12%
76～77°F
$457 Vol.
2%
78〜79°F
$258 Vol.
2%
80～81°F
$353 Vol.
<1%
82°F以上
$393 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.National Weather Service model consensus and recent runs indicate a cooler-than-normal air mass will reach Chicago on August 1, 2026, driven by northerly flow behind a departing front and limited daytime heating under increasing clouds. This has shifted trader-implied odds toward the 70–73 °F range as the most probable outcome, well below the 1991–2020 August 1 climatological high of 84 °F. Key differentiating factors include lake-breeze moderation along the shoreline, potential for partial cloud cover reducing insolation, and uncertainty in exact frontal timing that could allow brief warming if winds turn more westerly. Official forecast updates from the Chicago NWS office through tonight will provide the final guidance ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Jul 30, 2026, 9:02 PM ET
音量
$7,142終了日
2026/08/01マーケット開始日
Jul 30, 2026, 9:02 PM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.National Weather Service model consensus and recent runs indicate a cooler-than-normal air mass will reach Chicago on August 1, 2026, driven by northerly flow behind a departing front and limited daytime heating under increasing clouds. This has shifted trader-implied odds toward the 70–73 °F range as the most probable outcome, well below the 1991–2020 August 1 climatological high of 84 °F. Key differentiating factors include lake-breeze moderation along the shoreline, potential for partial cloud cover reducing insolation, and uncertainty in exact frontal timing that could allow brief warming if winds turn more westerly. Official forecast updates from the Chicago NWS office through tonight will provide the final guidance ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
音量
$7,142終了日
2026/08/01マーケット開始日
Jul 30, 2026, 9:02 PM ETNational Weather Service model consensus and recent runs indicate a cooler-than-normal air mass will reach Chicago on August 1, 2026, driven by northerly flow behind a departing front and limited daytime heating under increasing clouds. This has shifted trader-implied odds toward the 70–73 °F range as the most probable outcome, well below the 1991–2020 August 1 climatological high of 84 °F. Key differentiating factors include lake-breeze moderation along the shoreline, potential for partial cloud cover reducing insolation, and uncertainty in exact frontal timing that could allow brief warming if winds turn more westerly. Official forecast updates from the Chicago NWS office through tonight will provide the final guidance ahead of market resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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