National Weather Service guidance for Houston shows a consensus forecast high of 81-85°F today under sunny skies and light south winds fostering efficient daytime heating from morning temperatures already in the 70s, yielding 100% market-implied probability for 68°F or higher. NOAA model ensembles, including the Global Forecast System, uniformly project upper-70s to mid-80s peaks amid an upper-level ridge promoting warm advection, aligning with early-May climatological normals around 83°F and far exceeding the historical lowest daily high of 70°F on May 4. Inherent forecast uncertainty persists, but a dramatic shift—like sudden marine layer persistence or unforecast cold front—would be needed to challenge this; track real-time observations from Houston Intercontinental (IAH) or Hobby (HOU) airports through afternoon for resolution criteria.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Highest temperature in Houston on May 4?
Highest temperature in Houston on May 4?
68°F or higher 100.0%
49°F or below <1%
50-51°F <1%
52-53°F <1%
$44,325 Vol.
$44,325 Vol.
2026/05/04
49°F or below
No
50-51°F
No
52-53°F
No
54-55°F
No
56-57°F
No
58-59°F
No
60-61°F
No
62-63°F
No
64-65°F
No
66-67°F
No
68°F or higher
Yes
68°F or higher 100.0%
49°F or below <1%
50-51°F <1%
52-53°F <1%
$44,325 Vol.
$44,325 Vol.
2026/05/04
49°F or below
$3,483 Vol.
No
50-51°F
$1,616 Vol.
No
52-53°F
$1,334 Vol.
No
54-55°F
$1,209 Vol.
No
56-57°F
$1,909 Vol.
No
58-59°F
$1,799 Vol.
No
60-61°F
$1,711 Vol.
No
62-63°F
$3,220 Vol.
No
64-65°F
$3,521 Vol.
No
66-67°F
$8,930 Vol.
No
68°F or higher
$15,593 Vol.
Yes
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.National Weather Service guidance for Houston shows a consensus forecast high of 81-85°F today under sunny skies and light south winds fostering efficient daytime heating from morning temperatures already in the 70s, yielding 100% market-implied probability for 68°F or higher. NOAA model ensembles, including the Global Forecast System, uniformly project upper-70s to mid-80s peaks amid an upper-level ridge promoting warm advection, aligning with early-May climatological normals around 83°F and far exceeding the historical lowest daily high of 70°F on May 4. Inherent forecast uncertainty persists, but a dramatic shift—like sudden marine layer persistence or unforecast cold front—would be needed to challenge this; track real-time observations from Houston Intercontinental (IAH) or Hobby (HOU) airports through afternoon for resolution criteria.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： May 2, 2026, 12:10 AM ET
音量
$44,325終了日
2026/05/04マーケット開始日
May 2, 2026, 12:10 AM ET提案された結果: No
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.National Weather Service guidance for Houston shows a consensus forecast high of 81-85°F today under sunny skies and light south winds fostering efficient daytime heating from morning temperatures already in the 70s, yielding 100% market-implied probability for 68°F or higher. NOAA model ensembles, including the Global Forecast System, uniformly project upper-70s to mid-80s peaks amid an upper-level ridge promoting warm advection, aligning with early-May climatological normals around 83°F and far exceeding the historical lowest daily high of 70°F on May 4. Inherent forecast uncertainty persists, but a dramatic shift—like sudden marine layer persistence or unforecast cold front—would be needed to challenge this; track real-time observations from Houston Intercontinental (IAH) or Hobby (HOU) airports through afternoon for resolution criteria.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$44,325終了日
2026/05/04マーケット開始日
May 2, 2026, 12:10 AM ET提案された結果: No
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: No
National Weather Service guidance for Houston shows a consensus forecast high of 81-85°F today under sunny skies and light south winds fostering efficient daytime heating from morning temperatures already in the 70s, yielding 100% market-implied probability for 68°F or higher. NOAA model ensembles, including the Global Forecast System, uniformly project upper-70s to mid-80s peaks amid an upper-level ridge promoting warm advection, aligning with early-May climatological normals around 83°F and far exceeding the historical lowest daily high of 70°F on May 4. Inherent forecast uncertainty persists, but a dramatic shift—like sudden marine layer persistence or unforecast cold front—would be needed to challenge this; track real-time observations from Houston Intercontinental (IAH) or Hobby (HOU) airports through afternoon for resolution criteria.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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