**Current forecasts position 12°C as the most probable high for Wellington on July 20, 2026, aligning with the market's leading 58% implied probability.** Mid-July places Wellington in peak Southern Hemisphere winter, when climatological daily maxima average 12–13°C under typical westerly flow and marine moderation from the Tasman Sea and Cook Strait. The latest extended forecast from official sources projects a 54°F (12.2°C) high on July 20 under mostly cloudy skies with light winds around 8 mph, consistent with near-average or slightly below-average conditions noted in seasonal outlooks. Model consensus shows limited potential for warmer air advection or clear-sky radiative warming that would push readings to 13–14°C, while cold outbreaks capable of dropping maxima to 11°C or lower remain possible but less favored in the immediate run. Recent days have featured highs in the 13–14°C range, but the approaching pattern favors stabilization around the 12°C threshold. Updated model guidance closer to the date will be the key variable for traders, as small shifts in cloud cover or wind direction can alter the realized maximum within the narrow winter range.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日7月20日のウェリントンの最高気温は？
7月20日のウェリントンの最高気温は？
12°C 100.0%
6°C or below <1%
7°C <1%
8°C <1%
$65,141 Vol.
$65,141 Vol.
2026/07/20
6°C or below
No
7°C
No
8°C
No
9°C
No
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C
Yes
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C or higher
No
12°C 100.0%
6°C or below <1%
7°C <1%
8°C <1%
$65,141 Vol.
$65,141 Vol.
2026/07/20
6°C or below
$348 Vol.
No
7°C
$516 Vol.
No
8°C
$641 Vol.
No
9°C
$1,504 Vol.
No
10°C
$3,562 Vol.
No
11°C
$23,425 Vol.
No
12°C
$13,203 Vol.
Yes
13°C
$13,052 Vol.
No
14°C
$5,420 Vol.
No
15°C
$2,866 Vol.
No
16°C or higher
$604 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts position 12°C as the most probable high for Wellington on July 20, 2026, aligning with the market's leading 58% implied probability.**
Mid-July places Wellington in peak Southern Hemisphere winter, when climatological daily maxima average 12–13°C under typical westerly flow and marine moderation from the Tasman Sea and Cook Strait. The latest extended forecast from official sources projects a 54°F (12.2°C) high on July 20 under mostly cloudy skies with light winds around 8 mph, consistent with near-average or slightly below-average conditions noted in seasonal outlooks. Model consensus shows limited potential for warmer air advection or clear-sky radiative warming that would push readings to 13–14°C, while cold outbreaks capable of dropping maxima to 11°C or lower remain possible but less favored in the immediate run. Recent days have featured highs in the 13–14°C range, but the approaching pattern favors stabilization around the 12°C threshold. Updated model guidance closer to the date will be the key variable for traders, as small shifts in cloud cover or wind direction can alter the realized maximum within the narrow winter range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Jul 18, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
音量
$65,141終了日
2026/07/20マーケット開始日
Jul 18, 2026, 12:03 AM ET提案された結果: No
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts position 12°C as the most probable high for Wellington on July 20, 2026, aligning with the market's leading 58% implied probability.**
Mid-July places Wellington in peak Southern Hemisphere winter, when climatological daily maxima average 12–13°C under typical westerly flow and marine moderation from the Tasman Sea and Cook Strait. The latest extended forecast from official sources projects a 54°F (12.2°C) high on July 20 under mostly cloudy skies with light winds around 8 mph, consistent with near-average or slightly below-average conditions noted in seasonal outlooks. Model consensus shows limited potential for warmer air advection or clear-sky radiative warming that would push readings to 13–14°C, while cold outbreaks capable of dropping maxima to 11°C or lower remain possible but less favored in the immediate run. Recent days have featured highs in the 13–14°C range, but the approaching pattern favors stabilization around the 12°C threshold. Updated model guidance closer to the date will be the key variable for traders, as small shifts in cloud cover or wind direction can alter the realized maximum within the narrow winter range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
音量
$65,141終了日
2026/07/20マーケット開始日
Jul 18, 2026, 12:03 AM ET提案された結果: No
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: No
**Current forecasts position 12°C as the most probable high for Wellington on July 20, 2026, aligning with the market's leading 58% implied probability.** Mid-July places Wellington in peak Southern Hemisphere winter, when climatological daily maxima average 12–13°C under typical westerly flow and marine moderation from the Tasman Sea and Cook Strait. The latest extended forecast from official sources projects a 54°F (12.2°C) high on July 20 under mostly cloudy skies with light winds around 8 mph, consistent with near-average or slightly below-average conditions noted in seasonal outlooks. Model consensus shows limited potential for warmer air advection or clear-sky radiative warming that would push readings to 13–14°C, while cold outbreaks capable of dropping maxima to 11°C or lower remain possible but less favored in the immediate run. Recent days have featured highs in the 13–14°C range, but the approaching pattern favors stabilization around the 12°C threshold. Updated model guidance closer to the date will be the key variable for traders, as small shifts in cloud cover or wind direction can alter the realized maximum within the narrow winter range.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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