Recent official forecasts from PAGASA and global models point to a highest temperature near 30–32°C in Manila on September 21 amid the southwest monsoon’s cloud cover and scattered thunderstorms, which typically limit daytime heating. An active moderate-to-strong El Niño event is elevating baseline temperatures above long-term September averages of 30–31°C while increasing variability through altered rainfall patterns. Market-implied odds cluster on 32°C and 31°C because current runs show modest clearing potential, yet persistent moisture and light winds could cap readings at 30°C or lower. Key variables include exact monsoon positioning, afternoon convection timing, and model spread in boundary-layer moisture; PAGASA’s next advisory and updated global ensemble runs will refine these probabilities before resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日9月21日のマニラの最高気温は？
9月21日のマニラの最高気温は？
32°C 35%
33℃ 33%
31℃ 22%
30℃ 18%
新規
新規
2026/09/21
28°C以下
4%
29°C
9%
30℃
18%
31℃
22%
32°C
35%
33℃
33%
34°C
18%
35℃
1%
36°C
4%
37°C
<1%
38°C以上
<1%
32°C 35%
33℃ 33%
31℃ 22%
30℃ 18%
新規
新規
2026/09/21
28°C以下
$68 Vol.
4%
29°C
$49 Vol.
9%
30℃
$0 Vol.
18%
31℃
$0 Vol.
22%
32°C
$12 Vol.
35%
33℃
$29 Vol.
33%
34°C
$0 Vol.
18%
35℃
$51 Vol.
1%
36°C
$0 Vol.
4%
37°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
38°C以上
$4 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from PAGASA and global models point to a highest temperature near 30–32°C in Manila on September 21 amid the southwest monsoon’s cloud cover and scattered thunderstorms, which typically limit daytime heating. An active moderate-to-strong El Niño event is elevating baseline temperatures above long-term September averages of 30–31°C while increasing variability through altered rainfall patterns. Market-implied odds cluster on 32°C and 31°C because current runs show modest clearing potential, yet persistent moisture and light winds could cap readings at 30°C or lower. Key variables include exact monsoon positioning, afternoon convection timing, and model spread in boundary-layer moisture; PAGASA’s next advisory and updated global ensemble runs will refine these probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Sep 19, 2026, 12:59 AM ET
音量
$213終了日
2026/09/21マーケット開始日
Sep 19, 2026, 12:59 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from PAGASA and global models point to a highest temperature near 30–32°C in Manila on September 21 amid the southwest monsoon’s cloud cover and scattered thunderstorms, which typically limit daytime heating. An active moderate-to-strong El Niño event is elevating baseline temperatures above long-term September averages of 30–31°C while increasing variability through altered rainfall patterns. Market-implied odds cluster on 32°C and 31°C because current runs show modest clearing potential, yet persistent moisture and light winds could cap readings at 30°C or lower. Key variables include exact monsoon positioning, afternoon convection timing, and model spread in boundary-layer moisture; PAGASA’s next advisory and updated global ensemble runs will refine these probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
音量
$213終了日
2026/09/21マーケット開始日
Sep 19, 2026, 12:59 AM ETRecent official forecasts from PAGASA and global models point to a highest temperature near 30–32°C in Manila on September 21 amid the southwest monsoon’s cloud cover and scattered thunderstorms, which typically limit daytime heating. An active moderate-to-strong El Niño event is elevating baseline temperatures above long-term September averages of 30–31°C while increasing variability through altered rainfall patterns. Market-implied odds cluster on 32°C and 31°C because current runs show modest clearing potential, yet persistent moisture and light winds could cap readings at 30°C or lower. Key variables include exact monsoon positioning, afternoon convection timing, and model spread in boundary-layer moisture; PAGASA’s next advisory and updated global ensemble runs will refine these probabilities before resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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